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  #1  
Old 10th September 2008, 02:24 AM
Sachin Asher
 
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Default Financial Stocks Slaughtered on Wall Street



I have been making threads for problems faced by major financial institutions.

I made threads on

Northern Rock.

Bear Stearns.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Lehman Brothers.

Things are getting so bad now, I thought it's better make a common thread....

For today:

=========================

Washington Mutual (down 20%).

Quote:
Ladenburg Thalmann banking analyst Richard Bove expects Washington Mutual will lose $40 billion on its loan portfolio over the next three years and continues to include WaMu on his list of top 12 banks and thrifts at greatest risk of failing.

Source
.

=========================

Lehman Brothers (down 45%)

Quote:
Shares of Lehman Brothers went into a freefall Tuesday as hopes faded for an injection of fresh capital for the ailing Wall Street investment bank, analysts said.
Source.

=========================

AIG (down 20%)

Quote:
Shares of American International Group Inc, the world's biggest insurer, fell 16 percent on Tuesday on fears that the company's large exposure to the mortgage markets could trigger the need to raise fresh capital.
Source.
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  #2  
Old 10th September 2008, 07:17 AM
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Alchemist,

If Google is to be believed, the HDFC Bank ADR didn't do well on Wall Street either (http://finance.google.com/group/goog....666950/topics), down 7% by end of trade 09/09/2008 .
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  #3  
Old 10th September 2008, 08:47 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vasa1 View Post
Alchemist,

If Google is to be believed, the HDFC Bank ADR didn't do well on Wall Street either (http://finance.google.com/group/goog....666950/topics), down 7% by end of trade 09/09/2008 .
The quote is correct.

The ADR had also risen 4% on the previous day....

HDFC Bank may fall around 4% today, but can recover if markets hold steady.

HDFC Bank has been volatile in last few weeks and I wouldn't worry much about the ADR movements.
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  #4  
Old 12th September 2008, 08:43 AM
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Merrill Lynch (down 17%).

Not really sure if Merrill Lynch deserves to be beaten down so badly, but the stock lost almost 17% yesterday.

Quote:
Merrill Lynch & Co Inc's shares fell nearly 17 percent on Thursday as worries over Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc's future raised questions on which investment bank may be next to face questions about its survival.
Source.
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  #5  
Old 15th September 2008, 09:00 AM
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Lehman Brothers may file for bankruptcy.

==============================

However, there is some good news too.

Bank of America may buyout Merrill Lynch for $44 billion.

This is a much higher price than Merrill Lynch's current market price.

(It means a price of $29 per share).

==============================

The troubles for AIG seem to continue.

Quote:
American International Group Inc., the insurer struggling to avoid credit downgrades, is seeking a $40 billion bridge loan from the Federal Reserve as it tries to sell assets, the New York Times reported.
Quote:
AIG, the largest U.S. insurer by assets, has units that originate, guarantee and invest in mortgages.
Quote:
The insurer was in discussions with buyout firms including KKR & Co. LP and J.C. Flowers & Co. to raise $20 billion in capital, said people familiar with the situation.
Source.

AIG is the largest insurance company in US and its failure can have serious implications for US financial markets.
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  #6  
Old 15th September 2008, 10:47 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post
However, there is some good news too.

Bank of America may buyout Merrill Lynch .....
Look's like that deal has gone through .
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  #7  
Old 15th September 2008, 02:10 PM
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hello alchemist one straight question

what % do you think that AIG/WM will go the Lehman way?

thanks
ram
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  #8  
Old 15th September 2008, 02:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ramkasi View Post
hello alchemist one straight question

what % do you think that AIG/WM will go the Lehman way?

thanks
ram
That's a difficult question...

Still I would put it 75% for WM and 33% for AIG.

I have a feeling AIG will somehow find a solution even if it means selling-off good assets and substantial equity dilution.
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  #9  
Old 15th September 2008, 07:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ramkasi View Post
hello alchemist one straight question

what % do you think that AIG/WM will go the Lehman way?

thanks
ram
For those of you who are wondering how important AIG is, let me add this:

AIG is a component of 30-share Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Imagine what would be the anxiety level in India if one of the Sensex stocks was facing bankruptcy.....
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  #10  
Old 15th September 2008, 08:08 PM
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Is this "AIG" related to India company "Tata-AIG"?
If yes, then what will be impact on Tata-AIG?
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  #11  
Old 15th September 2008, 09:09 PM
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A very good summary of what lies ahead. I think the advice is worth considering.

http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/use-ex...he-week-ahead/



Extracts from the link


Tuesday is a FED DAY, meaning an extreme move could come either way. If the Fed uses the today’s action as a reason to Cut interest rates, we could see a huge surge higher in the market. The rate decision will be announced at 2:15 EST.

In addition, Goldman Sachs (GS) reports earnings on Tuesday, which could move the market higher if Goldman reports better than expected earnings, or send it lower if it reports beneath expectations. Many eyes will be focused on this stock on Tuesday.

As usual, Weekly Crude Oil Inventories will be reported early Wednesday, and with the recent drop in oil, the potential for oil to spike (or plunge) from this report exists. More eyes than usual may be focused on this report and the direction oil takes as a result.

On Thursday, the Leading Economic Indicators will be reported, which could potentially move the market if there’s a major change or unexpected result.

Friday is Quadruple Witching!!! According to the Street Authority, “Quadruple witching days are usually accompanied by considerable volatility in stock and derivative prices, as well as increased trading volume. As a result, investors can anticipate and plan for the potential effects of these relatively turbulent trading days.”


Keep this in mind and don't over expose yourself!
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  #12  
Old 16th September 2008, 01:02 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ashish_jain11 View Post
Is this "AIG" related to India company "Tata-AIG"?
If yes, then what will be impact on Tata-AIG?
Yes, It is the same AIG.

No major impact on Tata-AIG.

A promoter going bankrupt doesn't effect the finances of a limited company.

In the worst case, AIG may be forced to sell its holding in Tata-AIG to someone else.

Quote:
Tata AIG Life Insurance Company Limited and Tata AIG General Insurance Company Limited (collectively 'Tata AIG') are joint ventures of the Tata Group and American International Group, Inc. (AIG). Tata AIG combines the strength and integrity of the Tata Group with AIG's international expertise and financial strength.
Source: http://www.tata-aig.com/

International expertise and financial strength will soon be gone.

Only integrity will remain....

Quote:
Tata AIG Life Insurance Company Limited (Tata AIG Life) is a joint venture company, formed by the Tata Group and American International Group, Inc. (AIG). Tata AIG Life combines the Tata Group’s pre-eminent leadership position in India and AIG’s global presence as the world’s leading international insurance and financial services organization. The Tata Group holds 74 percent stake in the insurance venture with AIG holding the balance 26 percent.
Source.
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  #13  
Old 16th September 2008, 06:29 PM
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AIG has still not found a solution.

The stock is down another 34% in pre-market trading.

AIG had already lost 60% yesterday. The stock is now quoting at $3.13.

The impact of AIG's failure will be much bigger than that of Lehman's failure. I hope someone finds a solution soon.....
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  #14  
Old 16th September 2008, 06:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post
AIG has still not found a solution.

The stock is down another 34% in pre-market trading.

AIG had already lost 60% yesterday. The stock is now quoting at $3.13.

The impact of AIG's failure will be much bigger than that of Lehman's failure. I hope someone finds a solution soon.....
How about Bank of America. Can it rescue AIG too?

rgds
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  #15  
Old 16th September 2008, 06:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sanyad74 View Post
How about Bank of America. Can it rescue AIG too?

rgds
AIG is too big and I don't think any financial institution can single-handedly buy it out.

Either financial institutions will have to form a consortium to provide AIG with liquidity.

or

Federal Reserve will have to intervene.
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  #16  
Old 16th September 2008, 06:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post
AIG is too big and I don't think any financial institution can single-handedly buy it out.

Either financial institutions will have to form a consortium to provide AIG with liquidity.

or

Federal Reserve will have to intervene.
I just saw interviews on TV across the world people are terminating their insurance policy with AIG and getting back whatever money they can get.

It may follow the Lehman's food prints.

Anyway I have no investment with Lehman and AIG.

cheers!

Last edited by San Yad : 16th September 2008 at 07:03 PM.
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  #17  
Old 16th September 2008, 07:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sanyad74 View Post
I just saw interviews on TV across the world people are terminating their insurance policy with AIG and getting back whatever money they can get.

It may follow the Lehman's food prints.

Anyway I have no investment with Lehman and AIG.

cheers!
Just saw a newsflash on CNBC about AIG.

AIG needs a loan of $75 billion.

==========================================

No single financial institution alone can provide that much cash to AIG.

AIG does have the assets to raise the cash, but it is not able to sell them currently.

If given time, AIG may survive.

Thus, I feel US Federal Reserve would intervene in this case.

Fed had earlier stated that it won't bailout more institutions. However, I think Fed will see this as an exceptional situation and provide liquidity to AIG.
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Old 18th September 2008, 12:06 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ashish_jain11 View Post
Is this "AIG" related to India company "Tata-AIG"?
If yes, then what will be impact on Tata-AIG?
IRDA (Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority) has stated today that Indian operations of AIG will remain unaffected.

If Tata-AIG has to grow in future, it will need more capital. If AIG is not able to provide the capital in future, IRDA may relook at the matter.

Currently both companies - Tata AIG Life Insurance and Tata AIG General Insurance have sufficient capital and solvency.

Quote:
The Indian insurance regulatory body, the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority, has said that it did not expect any immediate threat to the Indian operations of troubled insurer AIG.
Quote:
Though IRDA said that there was no immediate threat to the Indian operations of AIG, there could be repercussions in around a year if there was any disruption in capital flow to the two joint venture companies.

The present solvency margins of the joint ventures insurance company of Tata AIG is at a comfortable 2.3, well above the mandated 1.5.
Source.
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  #19  
Old 18th September 2008, 04:06 PM
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US Federal Reserve gave loan of $85 billion to AIG for two years.
Is that amount sufficient for saving the company?
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  #20  
Old 18th September 2008, 05:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ashish_jain11 View Post
US Federal Reserve gave loan of $85 billion to AIG for two years.
Is that amount sufficient for saving the company?
No.

Fed has just given it time.

The loan will have to be repaid from sale of assets.

There is no market right now for exotic financial products, complex derivatives etc.

Thus, AIG may have to sell many of its assets below their fair-value.

Moreover, AIG will have to pay very high interest to the Fed.

Fed also gets warrants for 80% equity in the company. Thus, AIG won't be able to raise fresh capital via equity dilution.

It is just a matter of time before AIG becomes history.

===================================

Currently many US firms are seeking partners for mergers.

This includes Washington Mutual, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley etc.

We will see many more bankruptcies and mergers in next few months.
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  #21  
Old 19th September 2008, 12:28 AM
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Hey Alchemist I have heard that the HBOS has been taken over by the Lloyds TSB for 12.2 billion pounds. .
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  #22  
Old 19th September 2008, 07:49 AM
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yesterday dow and nasdaq shoot up. will the bad news flow come to an end?
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  #23  
Old 19th September 2008, 09:43 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ramkasi View Post
yesterday dow and nasdaq shoot up. will the bad news flow come to an end?
The bad news flow won't come to an end, but yesterday's developments will bring big relief to the troubled financial institutions in the US.

The government is thinking about setting up a separate entity which can temporarily buy troubled assets from financial firms and thus allow them to free their cash.

The final plan will be known by next week.
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  #24  
Old 20th September 2008, 08:28 AM
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Default Ban on short-selling

This link describes the controversy over the ban on short-selling financial stocks in the US:

Ban

So how effective a cure will this be?
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Old 20th September 2008, 09:06 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vasa1 View Post
This link describes the controversy over the ban on short-selling financial stocks in the US:

Ban

So how effective a cure will this be?
It is not a cure.

It will provide temporary relief.

Ban on short-selling will prevent artificial lowering of stock prices and I feel this is a good move.

If prices of stocks fall too much, companies can't find new equity investors.

Thus, excessive short-selling is not desirable.
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  #26  
Old 26th September 2008, 03:08 PM
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Washington Mutual is history....becomes the largest bank to fail in the US...

Quote:
As the debate over a $700 billion bank bailout rages on in Washington, one of the nation's largest banks — Washington Mutual Inc. — has collapsed under the weight of its enormous bad bets on the mortgage market.
Source.

Only positive is that J.P.Morgan Chase has purchased the deposits (and banking assets) of Washington Mutual.

Thus, depositors are now fully protected and their money is safe.
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  #27  
Old 29th September 2008, 07:27 PM
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Another major bank is gone - Wachovia Corporation.

Wachovia Corporation's banking assets and deposits have been sold to Citigroup.

Citigroup will absorb a maximum of $42 billion of losses.

Any additional losses will have to absorbed by Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).

Citigroup will be paying just $2.16 billion for Wachovia Corporation's banking operations.

However, FDIC will get preferred stock and warrants for the guarantee that it will be providing.

Quote:
Citigroup has agreed to buy Wachovia bank in a deal backstopped by taxpayers and brokered by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation to avoid another major corporate failure in the midst of the ongoing financial crisis.

Citigroup will pay the Charlotte-based Wachovia about $2.16 billion, or $1 per share, for its banking operations. Wachovia will retain its wealth management and brokerage operations.

Wachovia has been saddled by mortgage-related losses. Under the terms of the deal, Citigroup will absorb up to $42 billion of losses on a $312 billion pool of loans. The FDIC will be responsible for any losses beyond that, but was given $12 billion in Citigroup preferred stock and warrants in return for that guaranty.
Source.

Wachovia Corporation's stock is down 90% to $0.94.
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  #28  
Old 29th September 2008, 07:37 PM
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This is another bad news.

Just curious " Is JP morgan chase bigger than citigroup?

I thought Citi group also had some problem long ago.. That time they got new CEO..
Hope now its safe and would not come up like Wachovia!!!

Happy and safe trading!

Last edited by San Yad : 29th September 2008 at 07:42 PM.
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  #29  
Old 29th September 2008, 07:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sanyad74 View Post
This is another bad news.

Just curious " Is JP morgan chase bigger than citigroup?

I thought Citi group also had some problem long ago.. That time they got new CEO..
Hope now its safe and would not come up like Wachovia!!!

Happy and safe trading!
bigger by which parameter?

by market value J.P.Morgan Chase is still bigger than Citigroup.

($158 billion compared to $108 billion of Citigroup).

Interesting thing about JP Morgan Chase is that it be one of the few financial stocks in the US that is close to its 52 week high.....

JP Morgan's 52 week high is $50 and current price is $46.
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  #30  
Old 30th September 2008, 12:43 AM
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Thumbs down Bailout package rejected

Now that the bailout package is defeated what would be the possible trend in coming few days?

I guess it leads to more pain and dilemma in Indian market with news of more banks shutting down. .
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  #31  
Old 30th September 2008, 02:27 AM
Sachin Asher
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by investor7 View Post
Now that the bailout package is defeated what would be the possible trend in coming few days?

I guess it leads to more pain and dilemma in Indian market with news of more banks shutting down. .
If there is no bailout, dozens of US/EU banks will fail every week.

It will be a black hole for equities....

and the damage will be hard to recover from.
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Old 30th September 2008, 06:04 PM
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Another bank rescued by the European authorities.

Dexia had to be rescued yesterday to avoid its collapse.

It seems EU is no better than US.

Quote:
Dexia, a Franco-Belgian bank that specializes in lending to local governments, got a $9.2 billion injection of capital to stave off imminent collapse after a loss of public confidence led to a 30 percent decline in its stock price on Monday, according to announcements from the French and Belgian governments.


It was the fourth time in recent days that European officials have had to respond to a crisis at one of their financial institutions, abruptly ending the confidence European officials displayed as recently as last week that their financial system was not as endangered by the troubled mortgage loans undermining the U.S. system. With the pace and scale of events seeming to quicken, the Irish government guaranteed the debt of six financial companies amid a sell-off of bank stocks, and European officials discussed possible broader action to address problems with the global financial system
Source.
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