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  #1  
Old 20th August 2008, 07:03 PM
Sachin Asher
 
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Default Lehman Brothers Going The Bear Stearns Way?



Back in March, J P Morgan (with financing aid from the US Federal Reserve) had saved Bear Stearns from a possible bankruptcy.

There are now rumours in the markets that Lehman Brothers may also be facing a similar situation.

The charts do support the rumours...

The stock has crashed from its peak of $86 in February 2007 to $13.

J P Morgan expects that Lehman Brothers will write-off around $4 billion in Q3.

This is a big amount - especially considering the fact that the market capitalization of Lehman Brothers is now only $9 billion.

Yesterday, Lehman Brothers invited bids for its investment-management division.

Companies do sell assets in troubled times. That's not uncommon.

However, for Lehman Brothers, the asset-management division is the most profitable business.

If Lehman Brothers is going to put such a profitable business on sale, it surely means it is in serious need for cash right now.

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  #2  
Old 20th August 2008, 07:19 PM
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Humn! it sounds serious! ....Looks like another round of turmoil in making.

Europe too has it's share of problem with inflation!

RBS also reported Quarterly loss with 5386 million of write down this quarter and is already troubled by costly takeover of ABN AMRO!

Fortis on other hand if you look at share price, you will also know is also in big trouble from ABN AMRO buyout!
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  #3  
Old 20th August 2008, 07:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post
Back in March, J P Morgan (with financing aid from the US Federal Reserve) had saved Bear Stearns from a possible bankruptcy.

There are now rumours in the markets that Lehman Brothers may also be facing a similar situation.

The charts do support the rumours...

The stock has crashed from its peak of $86 in February 2007 to $13.

J P Morgan expects that Lehman Brothers will write-off around $4 billion in Q3.

This is a big amount - especially considering the fact that the market capitalization of Lehman Brothers is now only $9 billion.

Yesterday, Lehman Brothers invited bids for its investment-management division.

Companies do sell assets in troubled times. That's not uncommon.

However, for Lehman Brothers, the asset-management division is the most profitable business.

If Lehman Brothers is going to put such a profitable business on sale, it surely means it is in serious need for cash right now.

Hello Alchemist !
In fact, I need some detail and background and future prospects of JP Morgan.. Is it also in trouble?

Could you please ellaborate here .

Thanks
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  #4  
Old 20th August 2008, 07:35 PM
Sachin Asher
 
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Default

US markets were spooked yesterday by the statements of former IMF chief economist Kenneth Rogoff.

Quote:
"I would even go further to say 'the worst is to come'," he said.

"We're not just going to see mid-sized banks go under in the next few months," said Mr Rogoff, who held the IMF role between 2001 and 2004.

"We're going to see a whopper, we're going to see a big one, one of the big investment banks or big banks."
Source.

Lehman Brothers may be his "whopper".....

Anyone got list of Lehman Brother's holdings in India?

Who knows...we may get another chance to make some easy money....like we got in Orchid Chemicals.
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  #5  
Old 31st August 2008, 10:50 PM
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Default Lehman selling in last 2 weeks

Lehman Brothers sold their holdings in mid caps and blue chip metal companies in last 2 weeks:

Triveni Engg
Amtek Auto
Mastek
Prajay Engineer

Sold by Lehman bought by Deutsche Bank

Amtek India
NIIT
Cranes Software
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  #6  
Old 1st September 2008, 12:42 AM
Sachin Asher
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vipin911 View Post
Lehman Brothers sold their holdings in mid caps and blue chip metal companies in last 2 weeks:

Triveni Engg
Amtek Auto
Mastek
Prajay Engineer

Sold by Lehman bought by Deutsche Bank

Amtek India
NIIT
Cranes Software
Yes, I read that too.

It seems none of these stocks were sold in the open market.

P-note holders with Lehman Brothers were transferring their holdings to Deutsche Bank.

That was the reason why prices of these stocks were unaffected.

If Lehman Brothers had actually dumped these stocks in the open market, the selling would have brought down the prices sharply.

Here is an article about Lehman Brothers' holdings in India.

Quote:
Investors in the participatory note (PN) account of Lehman Brother’s Indian arm shifted their positions to rival firms amid media reports that Korea Development Bank is “considering” an investment in the fourth-largest US securities firm.
Quote:
Such inter-PN account transactions can be a tell-tale sign of a possible shake-out of an overseas bank. It may be recalled that a series of such deals also took place a day before Bear Sterns had to be offered a lifeline by the US Fed.

Such transactions do not have any impact on the stock price. What it means is that investors who are holding shares in the PN account managed by Lehman are now shifting their assets to PN accounts managed by other SEBI-registered foreign portfolio managers.
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  #7  
Old 9th September 2008, 09:48 PM
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Default

Things are now getting real bad for Lehman Brothers.

The stock closed at $16.2 on Friday.

It was down to $14.15 on Monday.

Today, it is down another 30% to $9.50.

Talks with Korea Development Bank have failed and Lehman may have to look at other ways to raise capital.

Quote:
Part of the decline came after reports that Lehman's talks with state-owned Korea Development Bank on a possible infusion had ended.
Source.

Markets are speculating that Lehman may break itself into two; with the bad and good assets getting separated.

Another possibility is that Lehman may sell-off its highly profitable asset management division - "Neuberger Berman".

==================================

I hope Lehman Brothers gets the next move right....this might be its last chance.....
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  #8  
Old 12th September 2008, 08:57 AM
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Default

Lehman Brothers' stock lost 40%+ yesterday and another 10% in "after hours" trading.

The stock is now trading at $3.81.

Last Friday's close was $16.2. The stock has lost over 75% this week.

==================================

Will Fed jump-in again and bailout Lehman Brothers just like Bear Stearns?

or will some ambitious buyer come and rescue the ailing company?

or will the company fail?

The fate of Lehman Brothers will determine the direction of the markets in next few days.

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  #9  
Old 12th September 2008, 09:31 AM
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Default giving company to a big company

hi

news is that Merrill Lynch is sailing in the same boat,seems real worst news is coming in future.
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  #10  
Old 14th September 2008, 11:38 AM
Sachin Asher
 
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Default

The Fed and major investment bankers have already spent 2 days trying to find a solution.

A third meeting will held today (Sunday).

Major players like Bank of America and Barclays are interested in entirely buying out Lehman Brothers, but only if Fed financially supports the move.

However, Fed doesn't seem in favour of financing any such deal.

An alternative solution can be that Bank of America or Barclays takes over the good assets of Lehman Brothers;

and the bad assets are hived-off as a separate entity. This "bad asset" entity will be funded by most major financial firms.

If a solution isn't found today. markets may come again under pressure tomorrow.

Quote:
Other Wall Street firms would try to inject some capital into that "bad bank" so that a flood of bad assets doesn't deluge the market, damaging the value of similar assets held by other banks and insurers, according to the report. The banks are also looking for the government to somehow support the bad bank.
An earlier story in the Journal reported that Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has made it clear to participants in the talks, called Friday by the New York Federal Reserve, that no government bailout for Lehman should be expected.
Quote:
Citing people familiar with the matter, the Journal said Bank of America, until today considered Lehman's most likely savior, seems to be less interested in a deal. Neither Barclays nor Bank of America wants to buy all of Lehman without some government assistance, the Journal said.
Source.
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  #11  
Old 14th September 2008, 05:51 PM
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Stupid question, but if Lehman Brothers were really big, are they still as big after the fall in their stock price?

Why should not the impact of their collapse / failure, become less and less with each passing day?
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  #12  
Old 14th September 2008, 06:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vasa1 View Post
Stupid question, but if Lehman Brothers were really big, are they still as big after the fall in their stock price?

Why should not the impact of their collapse / failure, become less and less with each passing day?
"Big" is not about their market value.

"Big" is about their balance sheet..... their liabilities.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had market values of only a few billion dollars when Fed took over them.

However, collectively, these two guarantee or hold more than $5 trillion of mortgages.

It's these liabilities that make Fannie and Freddie important.
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  #13  
Old 14th September 2008, 11:23 PM
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Barclays abandons!

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...NYw&refer=home
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  #14  
Old 15th September 2008, 04:55 AM
Sachin Asher
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by man4urheart View Post
Lehman may face bankruptcy.

Both Barclays and Bank of America have withdrawn.

Quote:
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. moved closer to filing for bankruptcy after Barclays Plc and Bank of America Corp. abandoned talks to buy the U.S. securities firm and Wall Street prepared for its possible liquidation.

Barclays, which had emerged as a leading candidate to acquire Lehman, pulled out first, contending it couldn't obtain guarantees from the government or other Wall Street firms to protect against potential losses on Lehman's assets. Bank of America withdrew about three hours later, according to a person with knowledge of the talks. Banks and brokers began consolidating trades in which Lehman is involved to minimize the impact of a possible bankruptcy filing tonight.
Source.

One thing is clear now.

The government is not going to bailout any other institutions.

All US financials are now on their own....
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  #15  
Old 15th September 2008, 12:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post
Lehman may face bankruptcy.

Both Barclays and Bank of America have withdrawn.



Source.

One thing is clear now.

The government is not going to bailout any other institutions.

All US financials are now on their own....
So by considering that USA govt is not going to bailout Lehman.

That impact we are smelling today.

But what is gonna to happen in next couple of days? Will we remain here or still will face down trend?
Rgds
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  #16  
Old 15th September 2008, 12:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sanyad74 View Post
So by considering that USA govt is not going to bailout Lehman.

That impact we are smelling today.

But what is gonna to happen in next couple of days? Will we remain here or still will face downtrend?
Rgds
In my opinion, US is in a recession and US markets are in a long term bear market.

Both US economy and US stocks still have a lot more downside left.

I am not really sure how the markets will react in next couple of days.

US still has two institutions to worry about this week - AIG and Washington Mutual.

Many more institutions may fail in days to come.

I have a feeling that either one or both AIG and WM will fail.

(AIG being a large company may get help from US Fed and other institutions).

Things will become much clearer by next week.

Sensex has very strong support in 12000-12500 range. Investors can start buying in small quantities if they can hold for 2+ years.
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