Here's something that was sent to me by one of my friends.
Alchemist, I would not have ordinarily posted this article, but since you are particularly bearish on the US and bullish on India, I thought you would like to hear somebody with a view that seems outlandish right now.
I looked upon this guy....he seems like someone who gets a lot of respect for his views. Moreover, "quarterly TD SELL" are so rare (last one having occurred in 1997 - and its effects were felt until 2003). Therefore I am left wondering what the heck is really going on here.
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In May, the India Fund (IFN) recorded daily exhaustion signals and a perfected weekly sell setup below TDST Up resistance. Since then it has traded in a range and the TDST Up resistance level at 30.39 has not been broken over the past three months in a qualified manner. Moreover, the weekly shows that a close this week below 29.29 followed by a lower open next week and at least one tick below the open, will confirm a bearish price flip.
All that aside, of greater concern for me is the Sensex. The IFN is not designed to mimic the Sensex. The TD chart shows that Sensex has the potential this "quarter" to record a TD Sequential SELL signal. The last TD Sequential Sell on a "quarterly basis" occurred in 1997 and was followed by SIX years of stagnant performance.
While I see this potential SELL signal - along with similar patterns for the Hang Seng Index, currently on a 12 of potential "quarterly" 13 and the Brazilian Bovespa, currently on bar 11 of 13. Contrast that with the US and Europe - the US is likely to record a TD BUY set up on the quarterly chart in Q1 2010, (albeit from much lower prices). and the FTSE 100, which also could record a TD BUY Setup on the quarterly chart of Q1 2010.
Compare this to the macro strategists almost universally calling for Emerging Markets to outperform the US and certainly Europe, I become more concerned that perhaps that the opposite might actually occur.
The bottom line:
India is topping. The run could last several more weeks and perhaps into November. But the technical evidence shows that it is time to exercise extreme caution with emerging markets. The risk is increasing.
Kevin Depew
Last edited by kkr555 : 27th August 2009 at 05:06 PM.
Here's one reason why Kevin Depew deserves serious attention.
On Feb 18, 2009, Kevin Depew said,
On a "weekly" basis, we already have a TD Sequential BUY signal in place, thanks to yesterday's decline. What this means is that even though the "monthly chart" "needs" at some point for the S&P 500 to decline below 741 to "perfect" the BUY set up on the "monthly" chart. In my opinion, it is now time to be bullish, not bearish. Because it is now the case that bears are the ones picking up dimes in front of a bulldozer, not the bulls.
Well, well, well...How right he turned out to be! The S&P 500 did indeed go below 741 in late Feb and early March. In retrospect, it was indeed the time to be bullish, not bearish. And that is precisely what Kevin Depew had indicated (on Feb 18) when he talks about bears being in front of a bull dozer.
As a primer to TD analysis, there is a daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly BUY/SELL signals that can be recorded. I think these are the likely impacts.
The daily signal impacts for 2 to 5 days.
The weekly signal impacts for 2 to 5 weeks
The monthly signal impacts for 2 to 5 months
The quarterly signal impacts for 2 to 5 quarters.
There is a TD Sequential and TD Combo whatever. I got no ideas what they mean.
Last edited by kkr555 : 27th August 2009 at 05:09 PM.
If Somebody can explain in simple terms, what does the above explain, I presume, from what I can gather from the post, that the author suggests that we are heading down, in spite of all the optimism, correct me if I am wrong
For whatever its worth. One thing that I learned today was that the TD Sequential/Combo set up accurately identified ALL of the Bear Market Rallies (at opportune moments) during the Great Depression.
Alchemist, your Sensex chart makes little sense for me. I wish you could come up with a primer on TD some time soon.
If you have the time, please corroborate how the TD system performed during the Great Depression. I got no idea what Mr Depew is talking about in this Great Depression chart.
https://admin.minyanville.com/assets...aquarterly.jpg - Kevin Depew writes, It is understandable to wonder how on earth quarterly charts could reliably reveal anything about supply and demand, so check out the quarterly INDU chart from 1929 to 1945. The 9 Buy and Sell setups (buy setups are printed below the bars, sells above) worked pretty well during the Depression era.
Last edited by kkr555 : 29th August 2009 at 12:14 AM.
For whatever its worth. One thing that I learned today was that the TD Sequential/Combo set up accurately identified ALL of the Bear Market Rallies (at opportune moments) during the Great Depression.
Alchemist, your Sensex chart makes little sense for me. I wish you could come up with a primer on TD some time soon.
If you have the time, please corroborate how the TD system performed during the Great Depression. I got no idea what Mr Depew is talking about in this Great Depression chart.
https://admin.minyanville.com/assets...aquarterly.jpg - Kevin Depew writes, It is understandable to wonder how on earth quarterly charts could reliably reveal anything about supply and demand, so check out the quarterly INDU chart from 1929 to 1945. The 9 Buy and Sell setups (buy setups are printed below the bars, sells above) worked pretty well during the Depression era.
I am not really sure if DeMark's sequential gives any targets as such.
It just gives buy/sell signals and conditions on which the trade should be exited.
On Daily chart sell signal has already appeared marked by yellow candle and Arrow!
In past you can see it gave timely signals before the big fall in NOV 2007(note the 2 yellow candles and rise in march(note the green candle in NOV 2008)
This is more automated Code picked form net, but not very sure about it!
Waiting for Alchemist explanation in simple terms how to count?
Last edited by man4urheart : 29th August 2009 at 08:34 PM.
Latest update on TD - I am simply the messenger. I don't understand a thing here except that Hangseng/Sensex may head down to 11K.
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Check the Hang Seng Index which last quarter recorded a TD sequential 13 sell signal and in December a monthly TD sell setup. The weekly chart this week may record a bearish price flip as well. The bearish price flip is a close below the close four bars earlier.
The interesting thing to note about this chart is that the TDST up level was qualified back in the 2nd quarter of 2007. This alerted us to the fact the Hang Seng would likely go on to complete a full TD sequential countdown.
The worrisome part is the monthly chart, which shows a qualified break of a TDST down level. This means that following the completion of the TD sell set up last month, the corrective move down for the Hang Seng could be quite severe.
Following a monthly sell setup, that recorded below the TDST down level tells us that the former trend has likely concluded. As for targets, I project TD Absolute Retracement down from Nov 18s high bar's high, the first retracement level down is 14275.53.
The Sensex chart looks nearly identical to Hang Seng, though the TD sell setup on a monthly basis recorded in November and not December. Similar TD Absolute Down retracement using the high bar's high is 10939.30.
These are projections over the course of months.
Quote:
Originally Posted by man4urheart
On Daily chart sell signal has already appeared marked by yellow candle and Arrow!
In past you can see it gave timely signals before the big fall in NOV 2007(note the 2 yellow candles and rise in march(note the green candle in NOV 2008)
This is more automated Code picked form net, but not very sure about it!
Waiting for Alchemist explanation in simple terms how to count?
TD Analysis for the India Fund and Sensex
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Linear Mode
