BSE has touch its all time high and cross 17000 within a small period of 5-7 days and the basic reason in inflow of FII money ( i think basically to hedge against dollar rupee convertion) Now what should be the next ? it is clear that market key is in the hand of FII if FII sells share market down other wise up ? in present scenario whether small investor should away from market or Party is expected to go till 20,000 ?
Please give detail anaylysis looking to American sub prime crise and Hike in crude oil price and expected mid term election in india.
Whether long term investor should book partial profit and re entry at low level is expected ?
I feel crude oil prices will soon cross $100 a barrel. Will it make a difference to Indian economy?
I don't think so. When oil crossed $50 all analyst were saying - Indian growth will slow down etc.
Nothing happened.
The government will keep on increasing subsidy burden on the oil companies. Slowly retail prices will go up, pushing up inflation. However Indian economy can absorb that.
Some time in the future private companies will be asked to contribute to the subsidies too. In that case companies like RPL, Cairn, RIL may get affected. However at this point of time, it is not possible to say if and when this will happen.
For now PSU oil companies' stocks should be avoid.
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If you are an investor, don't sell your stocks in order to buy them lower. You may never get a lower level.
buy-n-hold is for investors.
buy-n-sell-n-buy-n-sell..... is for traders.
sir as per your opinion if market cross 20K in dec 2007 then market will perform bad in 2008. as per present market position 20K is looking achievable before diwali and if current rally goes then no body know where market will go becuase market is performing beyond expectation of the public. In short run what is your opinion please give your valuable opinion
From current levels of 18500, 20000 is just 8% gain.
Still this is not a buy call. Fresh buying at this point is very risky, but those who are already long, should hold on.
If one is making 100%-200% in some recent buys, then partial profit booking is the best choice. Stocks that have moved up too fast will correct equally sharply.
There is lot of money flowing into India. This will make the markets very volatile in days to come. Such markets are difficult to trade and thus it is best not to initiate any new trades.
People who shorted the nifty, have lost lot of money. Such shorts will continuously cover their positions and prevent markets from falling too much.
Even if the market corrects, it doesn't seem that it will go below 16000.
By poorly, I don't mean it will sell off and go back to 10000. What I mean is that it will give single digit returns or slightly negative returns in 2008.
If 16000 level comes again, then it will be a good buying level.
Some time back when people saw the sensex at 16000 levels ppl were really in a doubt if there wud be another 2006 story. All experts were saying that markets are expensive esp the foriegn guys.
Now we are in 19000+ and suddenly we say we could go more to 20k or more... with India growin at 10%(optimistic), how can this rally be justified fundamentally??
Some time back when people saw the sensex at 16000 levels ppl were really in a doubt if there wud be another 2006 story. All experts were saying that markets are expensive esp the foriegn guys.
Now we are in 19000+ and suddenly we say we could go more to 20k or more... with India growin at 10%(optimistic), how can this rally be justified fundamentally??
Is there a bubble building up?
Are we gonna enter a long term bear market?
Markets are expensive at this moment, but that does not mean it is a bubble.
Even at 19000 we are trading at 19 times FY 2009 (April 2008-March 2009) earnings.
For October 2008, people will start looking at FY 2010 earnings. If we consider 15% earnings growth for FY 2010, Sensex's eps would be Rs 1150 in FY 2010.
If we give a forward PE of 18, the markets will be at (18 X 1150) = 20700 by October 2008. This would be fair - to slightly expensive valuation. A 16 PE would mean 18400 by October 2008.
Thus. now there doesn't seem to be much upside in the medium term. At the same time downside may be limited because of the foreign fund inflows.
Momentum doesn't always follow fundamentals. Momentum may take markets to 20000+ levels right now, but at some level, the flows will slow.
For them, it doesn't make a difference if markets don't move much in next 12 months. They are expecting the weakening dollar to give them positives returns from their overseas investments over the next few months. This cannot be the case for Indian investors.
Fresh investments should be made only if the investors are willing to hold for 2 years minimum. The markets have already factored in earnings growth for next 12-18 months.
At the same time selling is also not recommended because markets may not go to lower for a long time and may remain range bound for many many months.
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Fundamentally, I do not see any reason why India show go into a long term bear phase. Growth of 9% per year may slow down to 6%-7% in the next few years.
On the other end, my feeling is that the US markets are poised for a long and painful bear phase. For decades, US economy has enjoyed by borrowing mindlessly. This had created an asset bubble which has finally burst.
Long term economic trends don't turn overnight (stock market trends can). It may take a few more months for the credit rot to spread to other segments of the US economy. Slowly consumer confidence will get eroded, leading to a slow down in the consumer driven industries.
I have to deal with hundreds of US clients. I can assure you, most of them have a negative outlook for the US economy.
Yes Sensex is helped by foriegn funds. If there is trouble in US ppl start looking at other markets India wud be in their charts so the funds wud be here to stay for sometime that is a good point.
By the way can you Say more about you? Eager to know about the person who does such a good Job!!
Yes Sensex is helped by foriegn funds. If there is trouble in US ppl start looking at other markets India wud be in their charts so the funds wud be here to stay for sometime that is a good point.
By the way can you Say more about you? Eager to know about the person who does such a good Job!!
India has some advantages over other emerging markets:
-firstly, it has a higher growth rate, which looks sustainable in the long term.
-huge population will mean consumer driven sectors still have a long way to go.
-low exposure to stocks as an investment. only 4% of Indians are currently invested in the stock markets. there is still a lot of potential money that may find its way into the markets over the next 10-15 years.
-a larger economy means more capacity to absorb foreign funds. if some smaller economy would have received funds like that which we have received in last 15 days, the markets would have doubled. .
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China is overall a better economy than India.
However, the Chinese markets are far more stretched than the Indian markets. Their main index is trading at a PE of 50.
Also China's financial markets are not as robust as Indian markets. RBI and SEBI have done an excellent job in cutting down risks and introducing transparency in the Indian financial markets.
Also China is much more dependent on exports to US/EU than India. India will be less effected compared to China, in case of a global slowdown.
Thus, India has caught the attention of many international investors in recent weeks. Especially after the credit crisis in the west, India has become a much safer investment, compared to other markets.
Oh only 28 and You should have done a lot of reading in market related stuff and shud have been tracking markets for at least 5yrs or more, is what I guess....
The bigger stocks have stopped moving in the last few sessions. FII flows seem to be slowing down a bit. Maybe it is the P-notes effect.
Most of the big moves are coming in the mid-caps. It seems like a retail driven rally. Many stocks are moving up 15%-20% in a day without any apparent reason. This is a bit worrying factor. Such retail frenzy is usually seen in the last stages of bull markets.
Sensex is having trouble around 20000.
As long as the Sensex stays above its 50 day EMA, I would not worry much. (The green ribbon is the 50 day EMA and red ribbon is the 200 day EMA). The 50 day EMA is currently at 18148 and 200 day EMA is at 15615.
The Sensex has left a gap between 19210.48 and 19336.96 (the two rightmost blue bars).
I expect this gap to close in next week. (Sensex correcting to 19210).
Thank U for your good reports
Today sensex achived your target. Sensex Low 19196.42
The correct is over or contine in further levels.
i can enter in good stocks this time levels.
If Sensex closes below 19200 today, it may be headed for its 30 day EMA (exponential moving average) and then 50 day EMA (the green ribbon in the chart).
The 30 day EMA is at 18900.
The 50 day EMA is currently at 18250. (It is moving up currently - approximately 50 points per day. This means after two days it will be at 18350.)
The correction is not surprising. For the last few sessions, the bigger stocks were not moving. Only the small and medium sized stocks were moving.
This is a typical sign that the big money supply has been exhausted in the short term.
When markets can't go up, they go down.
There are no local triggers left for the Indian stocks. Thus they are now following the global markets. There may be some more downside.
Main problem is that news flow from US is negative and this is bringing down the Asian markets.
US market is not falling sharply, but it has not risen much in the last few months.
It is incorrect to conclude that US market not falling sharply indicates a resilient economy. The market has risen just around 3000 points (30%) in last 3 years.
from last some days movment in index is very low niether falling nor increasing. As x`mas holiday are coming so FII activity will be slow down. in this position i feel fresh fund flow from FII is expected in Jan 2008 then in your opinin in which shares we should invest for 1-2 months period. ( As no good IPO is expected during next 20-30 days so some fund is idle). Whether one should buy some good shares from Secondery market at present situation for booking some profit please advise.
What after 17,000
Over Streched!!!!
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