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Old 21st August 2007, 07:25 PM
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I Have Lump Sum Amount In Possession.i Want To Invest Systimatically In Equal InstalmentS Monthwise In A Fundamattely Good Large Cap Stock For 2 To 3 Years Duration. Is It My Right Strategy For Investment?please Give Your Valuable Advise.
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Old 22nd August 2007, 07:52 PM
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Originally Posted by ntmenu View Post
I Have Lump Sum Amount In Possession.i Want To Invest Systimatically In Equal InstalmentS Monthwise In A Fundamattely Good Large Cap Stock For 2 To 3 Years Duration. Is It My Right Strategy For Investment?please Give Your Valuable Advise.
It is always better to invest in small lots than to invest in one single lot.

If you are a first time investor, I suggest you avoid taking tips from anyone.

People are very liberal about giving tips in the stock markets.

For me, buy-and-forget strategy has always worked best.

Currently there are serious credit problems in the world economy - especially in the US.

My personal opinion is that things will only get worse from here for the US.

Thus, I will advice people to focus more on businesses that are more dependent on local consumption.

Telecom is one sector that will continue to grow, no matter what happens to the US economy.

IT sector has lost its sheen because of the strong Rupee and weakening US fundamentals. However, I feel in the long run, a weak US economy will only mean more outsourcing. The outlook for IT companies is not really that great for next 6-12 months. Still, if one is serious about investing for the long term, one should consider investing in the bigger IT companies.

Infrastructure is another sector that I really love. India is still decades behind in infrastructure when compared to the developed world. There is still a lot of work to be done and I don't see any major slowdown in this sector for next ten years at least.

Don't confuse infrastructure with real estate.

The biggest difference between infrastructure and real estate is that in infrastructure, companies first get orders and then execute projects. In real estate, companies start projects and then run around looking for buyers.

I think most of the real estate stocks are richly valued and the sector as a whole is in a bubble stage. I feel real estate prices will see serious drop over the next 2-3 years. Then it may be a good time to invest in real estate stocks.

Metals is one sector which I won't touch. It is always better to invest in cyclical stocks at the bottom of an economic cycle. A slowdown in the global economy will surely hit metal prices and profits of metal producers.

I am neutral on banking. Credit growth is slowing down in India and this may severely impact earnings of banks in next 1-2 years. However ICICI Bank is one stock that I really like (and own). It is showing above average growth, valuations are moderate and the listing of ICICI Financial services in 2008 or 2009 will bring a lot of value unlocking.

Automobiles again do not excite me. Growth is slowing and margins are getting squeezed. Tata Motors may be a surprise winner if the 1 lac car does well.

Oil and Gas is a low risk - low return play. Don't expect big returns from this sector. Cairn and RPL can give moderate returns in next 2-3 years with minimum downside risk.

Retailing is another sector that I like.Just like telecom, retailing is a sector that is totally dependent on local factors and may show strong growth in years to come.

================================================

All said and done, you will have to chose each stock individually. A business may be doing great, but if you pay too high a price for it, you want see much benefits.
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Old 30th October 2007, 07:01 AM
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Thanks for the nice explanation, can you suggest some good stocks to buy at current level (20K) in retail and infrastructure sector
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