Capital goods sector will continue to show strong growth for next few years;
and I also agree about your investments argument.
Growth has an amplified effect on capital goods.
For example, when lot of new power plants are coming up, demand for turbines is very high.
Once the power plants are in place, turbines are only needed when time for replacements come....which may take many years.
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The problem with capital goods stocks was that the valuations had become highly optimistic and there was no space for disappointment.
Many of the stocks were trading at 30,40,50 their annual earnings.
Even after the sharp correction in prices, capital goods sector is still one of the most expensive sectors in the markets.
If you look at the data on
BSE Sectoral Indices, you will notice that the
most expensive sectors are:
Power - 33.6 times earnings.
Capital Goods - 32.1 times earnings.
Realty - 30 times earnings..
FMCG - 29.5 times earnings...
Sensex is at 20.5 times earnings...
The prices are already discounting good growth for next 2-3 years.
If this year, growth of the Indian Economy slows more than expected, the stocks in this sector may get hit hard.
That's why. for stocks like
BHEL,
Praj Industries and
Larsen & Toubro, I suggest that investors
don't make their 100% investment in a single day.
If you are investing in capital goods stocks,
keep some cash ready to average at lower levels.