- Nifty is trading in a channel and is heading for Double top marked by bLue line, a resistance formed earlier.
- Also note how each trendline forms a resistance and how particular day rise ended at those lines.
- A advance signal will be generated by MACD or RSI , they will break the trend lines drawn earlier than price.
- Also MACD is below its signal line, which means its has to be watched in coming week.
- At 5401 lies the Fibonacci's target of 50%., So 5400 would be very tough level in coming days.
Last edited by man4urheart : 18th May 2008 at 01:50 PM.
- The short term Head and shoulder pattern is completed and Target is 4792
Trend
- Long term Trend line is placed at 4471
Supports & Resistance
- 4781 is also Fibonacci retracement 61.8% target short-term.
- 4227 is Fibonacci retracement 38.2% target Long term.
- Resistance - 5029, 200 Day EMA.
- Trendline broken at 5008, will also act as a resistance.
- RSI has also broken the swing.
Weekly Pivots
Giving credit to my Technical guru (Rajiv Khatlawala) for importance of calculating Pivots, for more details read this post
The Nifty is still above its long-term trendline and this will meet the Nifty around 4725.
If Nifty doesn't go down in next few days, the trendline will rise to meet it.
The trendline is rising 7 points per trading day or 35 points per week.
In March, Nifty had bounced back strongly from the trendline, but has failed to make a new high.
A break below the trendline should be considered a strong bearish sign.
- On Monthly charts MACD crossed below signal line in year 2000 and we stayed in Trading zone for 3 years. This also was the IT bubble burst!
- This year after Jan correction also triggered Crossover after 5 years. Point to note is that this is unique because we have corrections earlier every year but MACD stayed above signal line confirming those as corrections, but this one seems to signal trend reversal.
- Also our view is further confirmed by RSI breaking it's SWING shown by green line
Daily View
- Target is achieved!
What next?
- We are trading in a down channel.
- ADX = 17.6 is also below 20 and a rise above 20 will signal strong trend!. We are on verge of trend forming! Taking cues from Monthly charts, MACD and RSI placement on daily charts. We will head down probably.
- Yellow line is Long term trendline of nifty. Breakout below same will trigger strong downfall and Down trend.
Rise above 5015 will negate the view for short term. Anything close to Pivot should be used for starting SHORT positions.
Stop loss = 5016
Firm close below 4796 should be used for adding to your shorts!
Today we firmly close below Support as well as long term trend line !
Daily Pivot = 4696 (Stop Loss)
We have also broken the neckline for Inverse Head & Shoulder (check post no 2 in this thread). Since we have not finished the week yet, it is not confirmed yet!
NIFTY Target for same is 3935. SO by end of this week we will know what we will see in coming weeks!
Last edited by man4urheart : 4th June 2008 at 11:49 PM.
The current price for Nifty July Future is 4090. What do you suggest I should do? Do you see it coming down around 3800 within this month or do you see it hitting my predefined stop loss?
The current price for Nifty July Future is 4090. What do you suggest I should do? Do you see it coming down around 3800 within this month or do you see it hitting my predefined stop loss?
You shorted an oversold market.
and it bounced-back sharply.
Right now the Nifty is just below its 21-day EMA.
The 21-day EMA has proved to be a strong resistance and prices have been below it for last 8 weeks.
If you are lucky, the price will again fall from the 21-day EMA.
However, I think this time the market has the momentum to go above it and touch the 50-day EMA.
50-day EMA is at 4386 right now (Nifty Futures).
The thick blue ribbon is the 21-day EMA and green ribbon is the 50-day EMA.
- Nifty is trading in downward trading channel.
- Corrective rise is in force.
- Resistance exists at 50 EMA and upper trendline of channel.
- Fibonacci Targets are shown.
Alchemist/Man: According to your comments, 4385 is the 50 day EMA. Today, the Nifty touched 4500 and the sensex closed in on 15000 mark.
What are your opinions now? We all seem to agree that this uptrend is more of a rally in the bear market, but how long would this rally last? Is it a good time to short Nifty at 4500? What effect will the falling crude prices have on the Nifty in the coming days?
P.S. I shorted again at 4500
Last edited by rishig : 23rd July 2008 at 05:25 PM.
I don't know on what plan you executed your position for SHORT!
- It is very dangerous to predict tops and bottoms, flow with the flow!
- As I said I am still on bench! No positions traded since Nifty reversed. I am waiting for signals to reverse based on filtering criteria!
- There are no signs of reversal on charts yet.
- It could be a trading range developing or a reverse fall from trendlines drawn! There are 2 ways you can draw them and market has to confirm which one is valid! ...Check the pink channel trendlines and Blue Channel trend lines!
- I would personally like to see higher low Pivot on 60 MIN taken out, before I enter my short! which is right now at 4185
Disclaimer: Don't use this as recommendation. It is my personal view.
Alchemist/Man: According to your comments, 4385 is the 50 day EMA. Today, the Nifty touched 4500 and the sensex closed in on 15000 mark.
What are your opinions now? We all seem to agree that this uptrend is more of a rally in the bear market, but how long would this rally last? Is it a good time to short Nifty at 4500? What effect will the falling crude prices have on the Nifty in the coming days?
P.S. I shorted again at 4500
March-May rally lasted for 7 weeks. (See the rally between the yellow lines).
This rally may not last as long as the previous rally, but looking at the momentum, it seems this rally may be bigger in magnitude.
I can't say the exact levels, but around 4800-5000 seems possible to me.
===================================
Falling crude prices have always been good for equity markets. There can be no second opinion about it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ramkasi
will the nifty rallies to 4850 ......................by next week ?
The momentum is there, so it may.
I wouldn't trade long as I would prefer to take position only in the direction of the main trend.
Next week, if I get a level of around 15950 on the Sensex, I will short....
Otherwise, I am not trading this market.
This applies only till the end on next week. The logic is that markets will be overbought if they touch 15950 in next week.
If the touch 15950 after 15-20 days, the markets may not be in an over-bought zone.
===================================
@rishig
You idea of taking a position in the direction of the main trend is right, but timing of your first trade was really bad.
You shorted the Nifty just when it was showing a positive divergence and RSI was at 40.
(See yellow arrow).
If you want to buy in a bull market, let the market fall to an over-sold position.
If you want to sell in a bear market, let the market rise to an over-bought position.
If you can't get the above two conditions, you should at least keep a stop-loss.
I am attaching daily, weekly and monthly chart for nifty..
Clearly, the daily chart suggests downtrend as previous few days have been in a downtrend and we assume we should short tomorrow at the opening...
But the weekly chart suggests uptrend...and the monthly chart suggests a mild downtrend..
so given these three charts, what should be the main trend that should be followed for an intra day trade on July 29th and also, generally what should we consider in this situation?
Also, the US markets seem to be slumping tonight, that might just move Nifty downwards towards the 200 day EMA of 4188...
how do I attach the charts? I dont see any links that is there to attach charts or insert images..there is an insert image link but that is a url link..how can I attach the chart present on my computer?
man, I usually day trade rather than hold my positions for 3-6 days..So, I shorted many times and covered many times since your last post..
As far as the charts posted by me, I personally feel a downtrend and shorted again this morning at 4250 levels and covered those at 4200 level..
now based on my charts, I've went long at 4180 level thinking that the 21 day EMA should provide support with a stop loss of 4160..lets hope we get a small rally from here on..
Last edited by rishig : 29th July 2008 at 02:17 PM.
US market is up today and may remain up till the close.
This means Monday's opening will be positive.
Sensex closed the gap that it had left between 22nd July and 23rd July.
Nifty futures still hasn't closed the gap (22nd high is at 4275).
The 21 day EMA was a strong resistance when the indices were moving down.
Now, it will become a good support.
(The thickest blue ribbon is the 21 day EMA).
21 day EMA is currently at 4188.
I feel the market will make another attempt to move-up.
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I prefer to use the Sensex. I usually don't trade for 200-400 points. I open a trade only when I see a possibility of a 1000+ points Sensex move.
I would prefer to wait till the indices go the 200 day EMA to open a fresh short.
For the Sensex the 200 day EMA is at 16034.
============================
A compulsive trader may go long at 4210 with a stop-loss around 4140.
or short at 4490 with stop-loss of around 4560.
Nifty has 200 day EMA at 4772.
I will short if I get that price else I won't trade.
Alchemist, what is your take now as neither 4200 held and nifty closed in red with huge fresh shorts? What is your take now and also considering the falling crude prices and good up move in US markets?
NSE Nifty - Technical Analysis
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Linear Mode
