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  #1  
Old 18th May 2008, 01:46 PM
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Default NSE Nifty - Technical Analysis





- Nifty is trading in a channel and is heading for Double top marked by bLue line, a resistance formed earlier.
- Also note how each trendline forms a resistance and how particular day rise ended at those lines.



- A advance signal will be generated by MACD or RSI , they will break the trend lines drawn earlier than price.
- Also MACD is below its signal line, which means its has to be watched in coming week.
- At 5401 lies the Fibonacci's target of 50%., So 5400 would be very tough level in coming days.

Last edited by man4urheart : 18th May 2008 at 01:50 PM.
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  #2  
Old 25th May 2008, 06:12 PM
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Default NSE Nifty Analysis


Patterns
-Below 4700 nifty will finish Head & Shoulder Pattern in weekly chart, which has bearish implications.

Giving credit to my Technical guru (Rajiv Khatlawala) for this pattern, for more details read this post

http://technicalcalls-by-rajivkhatla...-analysis.html

- With this breakout of trend line, Nifty also Failed the Inverse Bullish H&S Pattern.


This pattern was made visible from Ultimate analysis of Alchemist

Sensex At A Glance

See Post number 51 on above link


- The short term Head and shoulder pattern is completed and Target is 4792

Trend
- Long term Trend line is placed at 4471

Supports & Resistance
- 4781 is also Fibonacci retracement 61.8% target short-term.
- 4227 is Fibonacci retracement 38.2% target Long term.
- Resistance - 5029, 200 Day EMA.
- Trendline broken at 5008, will also act as a resistance.
- RSI has also broken the swing.

Weekly Pivots

Giving credit to my Technical guru (Rajiv Khatlawala) for importance of calculating Pivots, for more details read this post

http://technicalcalls-by-rajivkhatla...nt-levels.html

R2 = 5333
R1 = 5245
Pivot = 5079
S1 = 4991
S2= 4826

To negate the view NIFTY has to rise above the pivot = 5079

Last edited by man4urheart : 26th May 2008 at 03:57 PM. Reason: Providing links & Credit for the information learnt and used in above analysis
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  #3  
Old 29th May 2008, 05:52 PM
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Today Nifty almost kissed it's support 4800 below which they say it is COLD and DARK

ADX for Nifty which predicts the trend is below 20 for long time and almost all indicators are set for a breakout!

Tonight's US market closing will guide the market but if it falls below 4800. Time to SHORT!
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  #4  
Old 29th May 2008, 06:22 PM
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The Nifty also has support around 4725.

The Nifty is still above its long-term trendline and this will meet the Nifty around 4725.

If Nifty doesn't go down in next few days, the trendline will rise to meet it.

The trendline is rising 7 points per trading day or 35 points per week.

In March, Nifty had
bounced back strongly from the trendline, but has failed to make a new high.

A break below the trendline should be considered a strong bearish sign.



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  #5  
Old 29th May 2008, 07:08 PM
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Can you explain this

Quote:
The trendline is rising 7 points per trading day or 35 points per week.
My understanding for Trendlines was once they are drawn, "in this case by joining lower lows" would remain intact.

Once a new low is formed, then you have to manually adjust it!. How did you do above calculation of it's movement?

Indeed Alchemist you are correct. Long Term trend line is placed near 4759(Marked in yellow color Line). Also bearish engulfing Pattern is there!


Last edited by man4urheart : 30th May 2008 at 02:19 AM. Reason: Correction on Long term Trendline
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  #6  
Old 1st June 2008, 03:35 PM
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Default NIFTY Analysis - W22

Monthly View



- On Monthly charts MACD crossed below signal line in year 2000 and we stayed in Trading zone for 3 years. This also was the IT bubble burst!
- This year after Jan correction also triggered Crossover after 5 years. Point to note is that this is unique because we have corrections earlier every year but MACD stayed above signal line confirming those as corrections, but this one seems to signal trend reversal.
- Also our view is further confirmed by RSI breaking it's SWING shown by green line

Daily View



- Target is achieved!

What next?



- We are trading in a down channel.
- ADX = 17.6 is also below 20 and a rise above 20 will signal strong trend!. We are on verge of trend forming! Taking cues from Monthly charts, MACD and RSI placement on daily charts. We will head down probably.
- Yellow line is Long term trendline of nifty. Breakout below same will trigger strong downfall and Down trend.

Pivots
R2=5235
R1=5090
Pivot= 5015
S1=4871
S2=4796

Rise above 5015 will negate the view for short term. Anything close to Pivot should be used for starting SHORT positions.
Stop loss = 5016
Firm close below 4796 should be used for adding to your shorts!

Supports & Resistance
- 4781 Fibonacci retracement 61.8% target short-term.
- 4227 Fibonacci retracement 38.2% target Long term.

Last edited by man4urheart : 1st June 2008 at 03:57 PM.
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  #7  
Old 3rd June 2008, 09:01 AM
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Nifty is resting on its long-term trendline now.

Most probably, the index will go below the trendline in a few days... maybe today itself.

If the Nifty goes below the trendline, both Sensex and Nifty will be below their 5-year trendlines.

We can safely conclude that the bull markets of these indices are over for now.

This may be followed by either a consolidation phase or a corrective phase.

================================================

(Look at the first chart in post #4.

I drew the original trendline from lows of April 2003 and May 2004.

Once drawn, this trendline has never been violated and so I never had to redraw it.

In June 2006, Nifty came within 85 points (2595 and 2521) of the trendline.

In March 2008, the index reversed exactly after touching the trendline).

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  #8  
Old 3rd June 2008, 03:08 PM
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alchemist,, do you think we can go short now on the markets...
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  #9  
Old 4th June 2008, 01:23 AM
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Here is action of today!



- Yellow line(4725) is Long Term Nifty Line not broken for 5 years!

Nifty has to rise above weekly Pivot = 4876 to change to bullish view!

Last edited by man4urheart : 4th June 2008 at 01:26 AM.
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  #10  
Old 4th June 2008, 08:00 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by amrutkumar View Post
alchemist,, do you think we can go short now on the markets...
The bias is downwards.

I think we may get a small bounce from these levels.

The Nifty managed to close above its long-term trendline.

I am not sure how high the Nifty can go, but a short position have a stoploss of around 5015.

(The 200 day EMA is at 5015 and is falling).

I would be comfortable shorting around 4900, but I am not sure if I will get 4900 this week.
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  #11  
Old 4th June 2008, 11:43 PM
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Here is action of today!



Today we firmly close below Support as well as long term trend line !

Daily Pivot = 4696 (Stop Loss)

We have also broken the neckline for Inverse Head & Shoulder (check post no 2 in this thread). Since we have not finished the week yet, it is not confirmed yet!

NIFTY Target for same is 3935. SO by end of this week we will know what we will see in coming weeks!

Last edited by man4urheart : 4th June 2008 at 11:49 PM.
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  #12  
Old 8th June 2008, 02:49 PM
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Pivots for this week

R2=5063
R1= 4845
Pivot= 4690
S1 = 4473
S2 = 4318

Tomorrow is day for SHORT and Recovery could also be fast so use trailing stop loss!
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  #13  
Old 16th June 2008, 05:04 PM
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From Nifty charts the trend is down! You can already see clearly in above charts 50 EMA is trending down!

I expect a rise towards 50 EMA! or further correction.

There is nothing new to show this week!

No positions traded, only watching!, Have some rest folks!
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  #14  
Old 22nd June 2008, 08:53 PM
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- ADX going Strong!
- Target is 4002(Aug 2007 Low).

Daily Pivot for Monday

R1= 4563
Pivot =4526
S1 = 4469
S2 = 4429

Weekly Pivot
R2 = 4799
R1 = 4573
Pivot = 4453
S1= 4227
S2 = 4107

Any body holding Shorts should lock profits near Weekly Pivots Supports!
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  #15  
Old 29th June 2008, 07:42 PM
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- ADX is going strong above 40, means the current downtrend is very strong

Following are calculated weekly pivot, Daily Pivot, Resistance, Supports levels for NIfty

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  #16  
Old 6th July 2008, 10:46 PM
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Hourly Chart with Daily Targets



Weekly R2 = 4323
Weekly R1= 4169
Weekly Pivot = 4009
Weekly S1= 3855
Weekly S2= 3694
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  #17  
Old 12th July 2008, 04:34 PM
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NIFTY - W28

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  #18  
Old 18th July 2008, 05:38 PM
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Man, here is what I did:

Nifty July Future:

Price: 3928
Sell: 100
Stop Loss: 4273

The current price for Nifty July Future is 4090. What do you suggest I should do? Do you see it coming down around 3800 within this month or do you see it hitting my predefined stop loss?
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  #19  
Old 18th July 2008, 06:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rishig View Post
Man, here is what I did:

Nifty July Future:

Price: 3928
Sell: 100
Stop Loss: 4273

The current price for Nifty July Future is 4090. What do you suggest I should do? Do you see it coming down around 3800 within this month or do you see it hitting my predefined stop loss?
You shorted an oversold market.

and it bounced-back sharply.

Right now the Nifty is just below its 21-day EMA.

The 21-day EMA has proved to be a strong resistance and prices have been below it for last 8 weeks.

If you are lucky, the price will again fall from the 21-day EMA.

However, I think this time the market has the momentum to go above it and touch the 50-day EMA.

50-day EMA is at 4386 right now (Nifty Futures).

The thick blue ribbon is the 21-day EMA and green ribbon is the 50-day EMA.

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  #20  
Old 18th July 2008, 08:07 PM
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thanks for your reply...but what about long term? do you see this rally as the end of the bear market or can it still go below its previous lows?
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  #21  
Old 19th July 2008, 10:57 PM
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Nifty - W29

Here is the broad picture


- Nifty is trading in downward trading channel.
- Corrective rise is in force.
- Resistance exists at 50 EMA and upper trendline of channel.
- Fibonacci Targets are shown.


Pivots
Weekly R2 = 4328
Weekly R1= 4210
Weekly Pivot = 4000
Weekly S1= 3882
Weekly S2= 3672

It would be a violent market. This will be a difficult week as Future of Govt will also have it's effect!.. ...Personally this week I on BENCH!

Last edited by man4urheart : 19th July 2008 at 11:05 PM.
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  #22  
Old 21st July 2008, 09:49 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rishig View Post
thanks for your reply...but what about long term? do you see this rally as the end of the bear market or can it still go below its previous lows?
For the short-term, it seems the Nifty may go as high as its 50 day EMA, which is currently at 4385.

Outcome of the tomorrow's confidence vote is going to be very important factor.

UPA winning the confidence-vote may take the markets to 4385.

Things will become much clearer once this event is over.

========================================

(4385 is not a target for the Nifty. Don't take it as a buy call).

It is best to avoid trading in this market till the confidence-vote has passed.
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  #23  
Old 23rd July 2008, 05:21 PM
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Alchemist/Man: According to your comments, 4385 is the 50 day EMA. Today, the Nifty touched 4500 and the sensex closed in on 15000 mark.

What are your opinions now? We all seem to agree that this uptrend is more of a rally in the bear market, but how long would this rally last? Is it a good time to short Nifty at 4500? What effect will the falling crude prices have on the Nifty in the coming days?

P.S. I shorted again at 4500

Last edited by rishig : 23rd July 2008 at 05:25 PM.
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  #24  
Old 23rd July 2008, 06:20 PM
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will the nifty rallies to 4850 ......................by next week ?

what are the new pivots now?
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  #25  
Old 23rd July 2008, 08:56 PM
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I don't know on what plan you executed your position for SHORT!

- It is very dangerous to predict tops and bottoms, flow with the flow!
- As I said I am still on bench! No positions traded since Nifty reversed. I am waiting for signals to reverse based on filtering criteria!
- There are no signs of reversal on charts yet.
- It could be a trading range developing or a reverse fall from trendlines drawn! There are 2 ways you can draw them and market has to confirm which one is valid! ...Check the pink channel trendlines and Blue Channel trend lines!



- I would personally like to see higher low Pivot on 60 MIN taken out, before I enter my short! which is right now at 4185



Disclaimer: Don't use this as recommendation. It is my personal view.
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  #26  
Old 23rd July 2008, 10:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rishig View Post
Alchemist/Man: According to your comments, 4385 is the 50 day EMA. Today, the Nifty touched 4500 and the sensex closed in on 15000 mark.

What are your opinions now? We all seem to agree that this uptrend is more of a rally in the bear market, but how long would this rally last? Is it a good time to short Nifty at 4500? What effect will the falling crude prices have on the Nifty in the coming days?

P.S. I shorted again at 4500
March-May rally lasted for 7 weeks. (See the rally between the yellow lines).

This rally may not last as long as the previous rally, but looking at the momentum, it seems this rally may be bigger in magnitude.

I can't say the exact levels, but around 4800-5000 seems possible to me.

===================================

Falling crude prices have always been good for equity markets. There can be no second opinion about it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ramkasi View Post
will the nifty rallies to 4850 ......................by next week ?
The momentum is there, so it may.

I wouldn't trade long as I would prefer to take position only in the direction of the main trend.

Next week, if I get a level of around 15950 on the Sensex, I will short....

Otherwise, I am not trading this market.

This applies only till the end on next week. The logic is that markets will be overbought if they touch 15950 in next week.

If the touch 15950 after 15-20 days, the markets may not be in an over-bought zone.

===================================

@rishig

You idea of taking a position in the direction of the main trend is right, but timing of your first trade was really bad.

You shorted the Nifty just when it was showing a positive divergence and RSI was at 40.

(See yellow arrow).

If you want to buy in a bull market, let the market fall to an over-sold position.

If you want to sell in a bear market, let the market rise to an over-bought position.

If you can't get the above two conditions, you should at least keep a stop-loss.

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  #27  
Old 25th July 2008, 11:01 AM
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Now is time to Short.



Move your following stop loss when next lower high pivot is made.
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  #28  
Old 25th July 2008, 03:07 PM
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man, what is your suggestion now since I covered my shorts at 4318?
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  #29  
Old 25th July 2008, 08:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rishig View Post
man, what is your suggestion now since I covered my shorts at 4318?
The indices may again try to move up.

US market is up today and may remain up till the close.

This means Monday's opening will be positive.

Sensex closed the gap that it had left between 22nd July and 23rd July.

Nifty futures still hasn't closed the gap (22nd high is at 4275).

The 21 day EMA was a strong resistance when the indices were moving down.

Now, it will become a good support.

(The thickest blue ribbon is the 21 day EMA).

21 day EMA is currently at 4188.

I feel the market will make another attempt to move-up.

============================

I prefer to use the Sensex. I usually don't trade for 200-400 points. I open a trade only when I see a possibility of a 1000+ points Sensex move.

I would prefer to wait till the indices go the 200 day EMA to open a fresh short.

For the Sensex the 200 day EMA is at 16034.

============================

A compulsive trader may go long at 4210 with a stop-loss around 4140.

or short at 4490 with stop-loss of around 4560.

Nifty has 200 day EMA at 4772.

I will short if I get that price else I won't trade.



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  #30  
Old 28th July 2008, 09:24 PM
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I am attaching daily, weekly and monthly chart for nifty..

Clearly, the daily chart suggests downtrend as previous few days have been in a downtrend and we assume we should short tomorrow at the opening...

But the weekly chart suggests uptrend...and the monthly chart suggests a mild downtrend..

so given these three charts, what should be the main trend that should be followed for an intra day trade on July 29th and also, generally what should we consider in this situation?

Also, the US markets seem to be slumping tonight, that might just move Nifty downwards towards the 200 day EMA of 4188...

any thoughts?
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  #31  
Old 28th July 2008, 09:54 PM
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I can't see the charts???
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  #32  
Old 28th July 2008, 10:10 PM
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how do I attach the charts? I dont see any links that is there to attach charts or insert images..there is an insert image link but that is a url link..how can I attach the chart present on my computer?
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  #33  
Old 28th July 2008, 10:45 PM
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How To Attach Images To Posts

Read this thread, this is how u attach charts!
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  #34  
Old 28th July 2008, 11:03 PM
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thanks for the tip.







now, what is your opinion?

Last edited by rishig : 28th July 2008 at 11:13 PM.
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  #35  
Old 29th July 2008, 01:36 PM
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Well I am currenlty testing a simple pivot based trading system on 60 min intraday chart.

I am still SHORT(NIFTY) since Post no 27 in this thread, but today I moved stop loss to new intraday pivot high 4279.

From your charts your message is that Trend is down, but challenge is to trade it accurately. Isn't it?
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  #36  
Old 29th July 2008, 02:13 PM
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man, I usually day trade rather than hold my positions for 3-6 days..So, I shorted many times and covered many times since your last post..

As far as the charts posted by me, I personally feel a downtrend and shorted again this morning at 4250 levels and covered those at 4200 level..

now based on my charts, I've went long at 4180 level thinking that the 21 day EMA should provide support with a stop loss of 4160..lets hope we get a small rally from here on..

Last edited by rishig : 29th July 2008 at 02:17 PM.
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  #37  
Old 29th July 2008, 05:49 PM
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If you are day trading, I hope you are using intra-day view also....
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  #38  
Old 29th July 2008, 08:23 PM
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yes I am. But it is tough to trade with intraday charts...any suggestions for tomorrow?

also, where can I find intra day data that I can use with Metastock and of course is free of cost .

Last edited by rishig : 29th July 2008 at 08:40 PM.
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  #39  
Old 30th July 2008, 12:12 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post
The indices may again try to move up.

US market is up today and may remain up till the close.

This means Monday's opening will be positive.

Sensex closed the gap that it had left between 22nd July and 23rd July.

Nifty futures still hasn't closed the gap (22nd high is at 4275).

The 21 day EMA was a strong resistance when the indices were moving down.

Now, it will become a good support.

(The thickest blue ribbon is the 21 day EMA).

21 day EMA is currently at 4188.

I feel the market will make another attempt to move-up.

============================

I prefer to use the Sensex. I usually don't trade for 200-400 points. I open a trade only when I see a possibility of a 1000+ points Sensex move.

I would prefer to wait till the indices go the 200 day EMA to open a fresh short.

For the Sensex the 200 day EMA is at 16034.

============================

A compulsive trader may go long at 4210 with a stop-loss around 4140.

or short at 4490 with stop-loss of around 4560.

Nifty has 200 day EMA at 4772.

I will short if I get that price else I won't trade.





Alchemist, what is your take now as neither 4200 held and nifty closed in red with huge fresh shorts? What is your take now and also considering the falling crude prices and good up move in US markets?
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  #40  
Old 1st August 2008, 11:30 AM
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Man, what is your take on nifty? Should we short or go long?
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