Alchemist, the market seems to be stuck in a trading range of 4400 to 4550...the NSG waiver is done and over with...Crude is down to $102/barrel..OPEC is cutting crude production in half...
now do you see a fall or a rise in the markets in the short term - week to a month basis?
I am currently short around 4440 level...but don't know whether I should hold these shorts or go long? I've lost plenty of money within the last few days as Nifty is getting extremely difficult to trade...
Alchemist, thanks for the input...as always wise words...4330 broke but now there seems to major resistance at 4250...I am still holding onto my shorts from 4440 levels..and added more position to it at 4315 level...
What is your suggestion now? Do you see us breaking 4250/4200 level and then going down further or is this it?
Alchemist, thanks for the input...as always wise words...4330 broke but now there seems to major resistance at 4250...I am still holding onto my shorts from 4440 levels..and added more position to it at 4315 level...
What is your suggestion now? Do you see us breaking 4250/4200 level and then going down further or is this it?
The markets may open up today.....may be around 4330 levels.
Everyone seems to be focused on the US financial crisis right now. Technicals won't matter much in next few days.
The fate of Lehman Brothers will be a major factor in deciding the direction of equity markets.
If Lehman Brothers finds a buyer or US Fed rescues it, then equity markets may see a relief rally.
If Lehman Brothers fails, we may see a huge sell-off.
My opinion is that the chances that Lehman will be allowed to fail are less, but if it does, the sell-offwill be humongous.
Alchemist! I agree we are going down, but H&S pattern, I doubt it.
Dont we need some previous trend to reverse?
We already in downtrend another bearish pattern in between, I think more valid is break of blue line?
If Nifty breaks 4200 level and heads to its down trend then what is the bottom line for SENSEX?
As we know SENSEX already broke 14000. What is the next level for SENSEX?
Alchemist! I agree we are going down, but H&S pattern, I doubt it.
Don't we need some previous trend to reverse?
We already in downtrend another bearish pattern in between, I think more valid is break of blue line?
That's why I used the words "sort of"....
The pattern will only reverse the minor rally from 3790 to 4650.
The blue trendline was very steep and would have broken sooner or later.
Nifty has bounced back twice from around 4200 levels and thus 4200 is an important level.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sanyad74
If Nifty breaks 4200 level and heads to its down trend then what is the bottom line for SENSEX?
As we know SENSEX already broke 14000. What is the next level for SENSEX?
Anyone can pls do analysis with graph?
rds
3800 on Nifty will mean something like 12500 on the Sensex.
The pattern will only reverse the minor rally from 3790 to 4650.
The blue trendline was very steep and would have broken sooner or later.
Nifty has bounced back twice from around 4200 levels and thus 4200 is an important level.
3800 on Nifty will mean something like 12500 on the Sensex.
Alchemist, how do the charts look now? 3799 was Low for the Nifty today...do you see further downtrend?? I personally am preparing myself for 3500 levels..would we get to those levels??
Alchemist, how do the charts look now? 3799 was Low for the Nifty today...do you see further downtrend?? I personally am preparing myself for 3500 levels..would we get to those levels??
In last 4 day, markets have bounced back 3 times from their lows.
Today, the volumes were good too.
At lower levels, there is good support for the markets.
Unless, something disastrous happens in US, I expect 12000-12500 to hold.
(The corresponding range for Nifty will be 3600-3800).
Last Week I drew some trend lines, but markets are supreme and Price is ultimate truth!
My mistake I should have waited for bounce back to confirm the Trendline. But then i tried to draw my lines early!. .
I am also scared for now, since the fall has come so fast that all technical and fundamental analysis could not have anticipated it!
But, the silver lining is when Sensex and Nifty were happily making new highs of 22000 and Technical school did got a signal at 18000 that a top has been formed, still later came the mother of all tops 22000. .
So all this crashing is also now at stage where at some point of time the sellers with their money will come back to deploy it back when the valuations will be cheap for their view point!
Big question is when?
If you were watching Dow yesterday, it rallied from 600 points low to close with loss of modest points! That was the 600 point low where people jumped in to buy!
Nothing is definite for now, but on our NIFTY I have re enabled the older lines(again drawing early dotted lines) now bold gray and switched off(made them dotted) the previous post trendlines (bold green) to see whether this support of trendline is respected?
Last edited by man4urheart : 11th October 2008 at 02:30 PM.
another point to consider is that we may have a further downside of maybe another 200-250 points for the short term but the upside move has much higher potential...maybe back to 4000...but don't take that as start of a bull trend...we are in a long bear phase and the highs should still be used to get out...but there is all the possibility of Nifty going up for the short term...we might have seen the bottom for October...but all this theories or trends might not stand a chance if DOW or the world markets crash..
Last edited by rishig : 13th October 2008 at 12:50 AM.
Reason: editing
Last week was very fierce correction which shaken the confidence from the best of best professionals in market!
Congratulations! you have joined the club of people who have seen bear markets in their life time!
News & corporate results are getting worse and worse every day, there is blood on streets.
Every investor is praying for recovery and Rumors and bad news rule the market! They have stopped looking at their portfolio's and take solace in fact they are long term investor.
Every industry is starting to struggle, recruitment is on hold, jobs are cut! Recession looms on head!
The situation is not going to change but how more bad it can get, is something to seen! This is my first Bear market too!
Last week I posted charts in Post 92 and 93.....
It was my mistake that I drew Channel trend line for support in downfall!
I went back to my classroom and try learn from this mistake!
Quote:
As John Magee comments in his book from his experience of bear markets of 1928 and further examples of 1987, Declines have no support and no point in drawing lower channel trend line until you get 3 points! It is also very rare you get three points!
Also Declines are of shorter period, like Advance took 5 years and this decline might last less than that....maybe 3 years
Here is the chart of action
Next target on Fibonacci is looking at our face? Already 2000 Points are shaved off from NIFTY in just 16 days!
You see the severity of correction!
It is currently sitting at correction levels of 2006 and breaking this will take us to next level
The Fibonacci Support also matches with the last peak made in way back 2004 at value = 2017!
Until we break 4000 our view will remain bearish for coming days. You see how difficult it has become!
Don't hurry you have all the time of world at your disposal to invest!
John Magee further puts it and we have seen it.... Going up takes pretty long time while coming down few months!
Last edited by man4urheart : 26th October 2008 at 03:05 PM.
Can some one post the Nifty chart with a long term view; that is from 1980 onwards till date...would love to see where the 61.8% and 78% levels are and if there is a long term trend line that is holding so far??
Can some one post the Nifty chart with a long term view; that is from 1980 onwards till date...would love to see where the 61.8% and 78% levels are and if there is a long term trend line that is holding so far??
NIFTY was born in 1994..Thus you cannot have a chart from 1980
You see why they say stick with large caps in bear market!
Junior has dropped -67% and MidCap -60% as compared to Nifty -53%
My friend Vasa I was not able to find the post where you asked for comparison with nifty of some script! If you can point to it, I can do it for you!
Last edited by man4urheart : 28th November 2008 at 01:35 AM.
Forgive me for my ignorance, but what exactly is this graph all about ? I can't make head or tail out of this. Got some kind of idea that you are plotting Nifty prices...beyond that it beats me....Can you please explain a bit more for it to make sense for others like me as well.
(a) What is O for ?
(b) What is X for ?
(c) Why doesn't Nifty 2250 show in your graph ? Didn't Nifty touch 2252 ?
(d) How did you arrive at your 3600 target ? Why not 3700-3800 ?
(e) The resistances at 3150 and 3250 are common knowledge these days so I won't ask you how you got those! But others may or may not be aware of this.
Thanks in advance.
Quote:
Originally Posted by man4urheart
It has been long long time since this thread is updated......
Here is my view of Nifty
-- Breakout is 3100, green box
-- Resistance 3250, red box
-- Target 3600 green box, if we clear the resistance red box
Well it is a bank of questions. I will try to answer. This is simplest & earliest form of charting and less used one. In India especially this is new. I still have to see a Indian site which offers it! Note there is no time axis in same, only Price is analyszed
(a) What is O for ? When price heads down!
(b) What is X for ? When price heads up
(c) Why doesn't Nifty 2250 show in your graph ? Didn't Nifty touch 2252 ? Graph has been zoomed to a particular view that's why!
(d) How did you arrive at your 3600 target ? Why not 3700-3800 ?
Actual Price target as per calculation is 4000, but Then resistance is the earlier Supply at 3600 marked by X , so if we cross it definite target actually is 4000.
Calculation method is vertical and you need to read about the chart method for same!
(e) The resistances at 3150 and 3250 are common knowledge these days so I won't ask you how you got those! But others may or may not be aware of this.
Every previous X is a resistance in this chart!
So if you see I have marked previous X at 3100 as resistance and 3150 as actual Breakout!
http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php..._figure_charts
Here we see rising columns of X's and falling columns of O's with numbers (1 - 9) and letters (A, B, C) placed within the columns. The number and letters are simply used as monthly indicators, allowing the user to have at least a rough idea of when these price movements occurred aside from the given year markers at the bottom. The numbers 1 - 9 correspond to months January thru September, and to save space, A B & C were assigned to October, November, and December respectively. Therefore, if you saw a "2" in the place of an X, that would indicate that the price rose by the box value in the month of February. Keep in mind that the "2" would not necessarily indicate February 1, it simply signifies that the price movement occurred in the month of February.
Looking at your chart I see that the NIFTY has had 6 false break outs above the 50 EMA. Although I do not know technically if a 65 day EMA or a 70 day EMA or a 75 day EMA makes any sense, I can say for sure that the NIFTY does NOT go above either the 65/70/75 EMA !!!
Similarly, on your $SPX chart, there was around 3 false break outs above the 50 EMA. Even here a 65/70/75 EMA would have been a better indicator than the 50 EMA. Is the market makers messing around with the 50 day EMA to trap the bulls ?
Based on this assumption, it looks like the upside for the current rally (from 2675+) will be capped around the 3000 area. The P&F chart also seems to indicate the same.
Is that a bear pennant in NIFTY too ? (I thought I saw one in the $SPX (S&P 500) chart earlier in the day)
Quote:
Originally Posted by man4urheart
The Support levels are shown. if we break those then we will head for Oct lows.
We broke the immediate support line and with good volume.
Last edited by kkr555 : 28th January 2009 at 03:20 PM.
I see a Triangle forming in Nifty and also MACD divergence which is not shown in chart.
Next week If we hit 2650 we will go down further towards earlier Oct 2008 lows...I will check intra day charts later for further confirmation and will post accordingly.
If the Volumes had been heavy, I would be entirely convinced about the breakdown. I would still wait and see if the price action confirms the breakdown in the coming days.
Somehow this recent collapse seems so eerie. You know it is happening. But then, every thing seems to be happening in real slow motion. Whereas in Sep/Oct, the waterfall collapse was so fast and furious one, the current selling seems more like an exhaustion selling. Another key difference is that the market doesn't react (both on the upside & downside) to the Dow/S&P as much as it did back in Sep/Oct. I think the Indian and to a large part the Emerging Asian Markets have now realised that the Dow Futures too often simply plays sucker tricks.
One thing for sure is the impending crash in the Dow even as early as some time this week. Once this sign of capitulation is confirmed, i.e., all the longs throw in the towel, then there is a good possibility that markets will then begin to trend upward for a reasonable bear market rally of at least 25%. Seems strange to be in a bear market that hasn't really produced one good rally so far. By good, I mean an opportunity for everyone to make the 25%, not just those who buy into the huge dips on the day(s) of the crash.
Look's like the price confirmation is already taking place right now. Nifty is currently trading at 2637. Any close below 2650 will confirm the breakdown.
Last edited by kkr555 : 3rd March 2009 at 02:02 PM.
Reason: Nifty below 2650
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