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  #441  
Old 17th May 2017, 01:27 AM
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Interesting article that I found on Yahoo:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/derail...134628547.html

Quote:
"Yes, the VIX will surely not stay around 10 forever, but perhaps we would be better served to look past the worry over what unknown force will imminently bring the market down, and instead focus on the signals from a market that is moving up as economic fundamentals and earnings continue to grow," Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson said on Monday.
India's VIX has collapsed too. I feel both India and US are in a similar position now.

Corrections will keep happening from time to time, but other than a nasty unexpected event, I don't see anything than can turn this bull market into a bear market.



Source of VIX Chart:

http://in.investing.com/indices/india-vix-chart
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  #442  
Old 17th May 2017, 01:02 PM
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Nifty is showing exceptional resilience.

It just doesn't want to go down. .
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  #443  
Old 20th May 2017, 07:06 PM
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The dreaded "Shooting Star" is back again.

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  #444  
Old 23rd May 2017, 11:24 AM
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Nice observation Alchemist.

Where do you think the next level of support would be?
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  #445  
Old 23rd May 2017, 02:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by paran View Post
Nice observation Alchemist.

Where do you think the next level of support would be?
9150-9200 and then 8900-8920.

Every fall is getting bought into and so I don't expect a deep correction.
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  #446  
Old 24th May 2017, 06:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post
The dreaded "Shooting Star" is back again.
Thanks for the alert adminjee, I was selling my stocks from last Friday and now in 45% cash, and have big exposure to public sector banks now. (also booked huge loss in BOI , bcoz I entered at a peak price )

Why I was in 45% cash is I got more profits than what i was aiming for this FY, so becoming over protective.

DISC this is a general chat I am not recommending anything I am not a analyst. Caution: I am a bad trader .
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  #447  
Old 29th May 2017, 10:15 AM
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The "Shooting Star" pattern got negated and hence the aggressive move in Nifty on Thursday and Friday.

Large caps are still holding but mid-caps and small-caps are under pressure. This was expected as the valuations of small and mid-caps had become much more stretched than the large caps.
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  #448  
Old 15th June 2017, 10:18 AM
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Even though valuations are high, there is no supply and hence the market is not correcting.

Most of the index stocks as well as good quality stocks are held in long term portfolios.

There is constant demand for quality stocks coming from FIIs, mutual funds, insurance companies and other long-term investors.

All of them want stocks that they can hold for 5-10-20 years and have no intention of selling.

In such a scenario, I don't see how the market can correct. As I said, only an unexpected black swan event can take this market down significantly. It will not go down on its own.
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  #449  
Old 13th July 2017, 11:27 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post
In such a scenario, I don't see how the market can correct. As I said, only an unexpected black swan event can take this market down significantly. It will not go down on its own.
The nifty PE is ridiculously high at approx 24.

In the absence of a black swan event is it prudent to continue with the existing SIPs ?

1. Stop the SIPs till market cools or there is a black swan ?
2. Stop the SIPs as well as book some profit from existing portfolio.
3. Continue with SIPs but book some profit.
4. Continue SIP do nothing.
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  #450  
Old 13th July 2017, 02:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Atiker View Post
The nifty PE is ridiculously high at approx 24.

In the absence of a black swan event is it prudent to continue with the existing SIPs ?

1. Stop the SIPs till market cools or there is a black swan ?
2. Stop the SIPs as well as book some profit from existing portfolio.
3. Continue with SIPs but book some profit.
4. Continue SIP do nothing.
I think one can continue with the SIPs and hold long positions with trailing stop losses.

One thing is clear - the market is all about "momentum" now, "value" has taken backseat.

If the market is going up, let it go up.

Don't bother about the top. Just ride the momentum with trailing stop losses.

It is possible the "euphoria" phase has just started and the Nifty goes to 11000 or 12000 in next few weeks.
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  #451  
Old 13th July 2017, 03:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post
I think one can continue with the SIPs and hold long positions with trailing stop losses.

One thing is clear - the market is all about "momentum" now, "value" has taken backseat.
Agree.

This euphoria is crazy.

Usually the crash is like a bubble prick, doesn't give time to exit.

The way market burst in Jan 2008 and earlier in 2006, 2001 etc.
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  #452  
Old 13th July 2017, 03:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Atiker View Post
The nifty PE is ridiculously high at approx 24.

In the absence of a black swan event is it prudent to continue with the existing SIPs ?

1. Stop the SIPs till market cools or there is a black swan ?
2. Stop the SIPs as well as book some profit from existing portfolio.
3. Continue with SIPs but book some profit.
4. Continue SIP do nothing.
I was contemplating some of these options as well.

I am particularly worried about Small cap fund SIP so I have reduced the SIP contribution to minimum starting next month onward and diverted that amount to Largecap fund (for better perceived safety vis-a-vis small cap). At least this way, sort of minimizing the risk to the overheated segment while participating in the rally through largecap.
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  #453  
Old 13th July 2017, 04:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stk_chk View Post
I was contemplating some of these options as well.

I am particularly worried about Small cap fund SIP so I have reduced the SIP contribution to minimum starting next month onward and diverted that amount to Largecap fund (for better perceived safety vis-a-vis small cap). At least this way, sort of minimizing the risk to the overheated segment while participating in the rally through largecap.
I have SIPs running for 5+ years, amount is substantial and this craziness in market is giving me jitters. I too am contemplating booking profits in small and mid cap mutual funds by selling one year old ones and moving that money to large cap. But not to tinker with current sip's. Option 3 that is.

A single bad news. an accident a black swan, will bring all this crashing down.

24+ PE is very expensive. I don't think earnings will go up so much as to justify these insane prices. But yes there is long term SIP money coming in every month, which needs to be deployed within the same stocks available in the market. This may not allow the market to fall much.

Domestic funds are now not minuscule compared to foreign funds as it used to be in the past.
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  #454  
Old 13th July 2017, 04:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Atiker View Post
24+ PE is very expensive. I don't think earnings will go up so much as to justify these insane prices.
Low interest rates are also responsible for pushing up the market.

A bank FD doesn't yield much more than 7% these days. Real estate and gold are stagnant. Money has nowhere else to go and is flowing into stocks.

As you said, SIP money also has to be deployed every month and that will provide a floor to the market in the medium term.
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  #455  
Old 14th July 2017, 11:03 AM
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Just as in the case of fixed income instruments, even in equity higher prices mean lower yields/returns, potentially even negative. Are investors pumping in money now because 'there is no alternative' prepared for this?
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  #456  
Old 18th July 2017, 07:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by $$Money$$ View Post
Are investors pumping in money now because 'there is no alternative' prepared for this?
"Risk" is usually ignored or highly underestimated in the last phase of a bull market.

If this is indeed the last phase, I guess risk is grossly underestimated at the moment.

What happened to ITC today is a classic example of this.

Most earnings growth projections now are based on assumptions that things will dramatically change from here on - capex will pick up, banks will recover debts faster, real estate will again see demand growth, GST will increase tax collections significantly without hurting consumers or without creating inflation and so on.

The reality is that there is hardly any sign of any of these happening today.

Technically, ITC's fall today has done some damage to Nifty's upmove, but the structure is still bullish overall.

Where the market goes from here will depend a lot on the financials, especially the private banks which are still technically strong. If the financials start to crack, 10000 on the Nifty will be difficult to achieve.
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  #457  
Old 19th July 2017, 06:11 PM
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Most of yesterday's loss was recovered today.

The following NSE indices closed at fresh all time highs:

Nifty 200
Nifty 500
Nifty Bank
Nifty Commodities
Nifty Financial Services
Nifty Infra
Nifty Metal
Nifty Midcap 50
Nifty MNC
Nifty Service Sector

Bull market continues.....
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  #458  
Old 20th July 2017, 09:47 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post
Most of yesterday's loss was recovered today.


Bull market continues.....
That dragged me back into markets, closed one FD and brought that money into stocks bcoz I think post tax outgo I get 5% INTEREST ONLY maybe on my FD .
So taking risk and dancing near door.... [ I may quit any moment from market depending on situation]
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