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  #401  
Old 12th May 2015, 09:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ramkasi View Post
At present I am looking at close below 8029 to press the panic button.
Same here. A close below 8000 would be bearish.

I have limited historical data on my PC and thus can't give exact support levels at present.
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  #402  
Old 13th May 2015, 10:44 AM
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Nifty already threatened to breach 8k mark two times if i am not wrong if it try again then it will go much lower this time my GUESS.

Disclosure. I don't know anything about technicals and i am not a certified person or a technical analyst.

Above is my personal view ONLY and it should not be considered as any kind of advice.
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  #403  
Old 14th May 2015, 09:41 AM
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This is how Nifty's chart looks.

The 200 EMA is around 8190. As the Nifty was oversold, it got some support around 200 EMA, but overall the picture is bearish.

Today, Nifty is again hovering around 200 EMA.

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  #404  
Old 8th November 2015, 02:46 PM
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Alchemist jee , what is your opinion on markets tomorrow, sharply loweropening and further down as the day progress?
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  #405  
Old 8th November 2015, 06:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ramkasi View Post
Alchemist jee , what is your opinion on markets tomorrow, sharply lower opening and further down as the day progress?
A sharp sell off at the opening, but I expect the market to bounce back in the second half, courtesy support from LIC. .

I think the Bihar results are a blessing in disguise and will force the BJP to work harder and hasten the pace of reforms.
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  #406  
Old 9th November 2015, 07:59 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post
but I expect the market to bounce back in the second half, courtesy support from LIC.

I forgot about Big Brother LIC with loads of People's Money .
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  #407  
Old 2nd December 2015, 07:02 AM
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hello Alchemist, what is your opinion on the markets if FED meet decides to raise the interest rates this month?

kya sare jameen pe ajayega? [or news already discounted]

ramK.
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  #408  
Old 3rd December 2015, 08:59 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ramkasi View Post
hello Alchemist, what is your opinion on the markets if FED meet decides to raise the interest rates this month?

kya sare jameen pe ajayega? [or news already discounted]

ramK.
For the short term. I don't expect any sharp move on either side. I think it is a directionless market - an elongated consolidation in a structural bull market.

There are two major lines I am watching out for.

The lower support line has been violated a few times, but the Nifty has managed to go above it again.

I don't think it is of much significance now. Even if Nifty goes below this support line again, it will find support at levels slightly below the line. I think 6900-7000 is the maximum downside for the Nifty in the medium term.

The downward sloping resistance line is the one that I think is more important. Once an upward breakout comes, the Nifty will resume its bull trend. The next leg may not be as powerful as the first leg was, but there can be significant upside in the long-term.

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  #409  
Old 14th January 2016, 05:33 PM
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For two consecutive days markets have recovered significantly from day's lows.

That is a good sign and I expect a short-term bounce in next few days.
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  #410  
Old 15th January 2016, 08:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post
I expect a short-term bounce in next few days.

But it seems market in no mood to hear anything or watch any technical support levels, and the waterfall had taken

my profits of many months in just very few days and portfolio now turned into red .
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  #411  
Old 18th January 2016, 09:47 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ramkasi View Post
But it seems market in no mood to hear anything or watch any technical support levels, and the waterfall had taken

my profits of many months in just very few days and portfolio now turned into red .
Today, Nifty is trying hard not to go down, but the broader market is selling off. I wonder who will win, Nifty 50 or rest of the stocks.
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  #412  
Old 21st January 2016, 03:32 PM
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What do you think the next support level would be?

First of all is there any reason for the current relentless market fall around all over the world?
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  #413  
Old 21st January 2016, 10:54 PM
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They have made it look like 2008, but seems to be slowing now. Markets around the August levels everywhere. Bears know the technicals as well and would like to hit another round of stop-losses before respite possibly. May be another 2% to simply grind the bulls.
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  #414  
Old 25th January 2016, 10:54 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by paran View Post
What do you think the next support level would be?

First of all is there any reason for the current relentless market fall around all over the world?
In my opinion there are two reasons. First is the possibility of rate hike in US and second is slow down and risk of hard landing of the Chinese economy.

After the turmoil that financial markets have witnessed, I think there is a strong probability that the US Fed will postpone the rate hikes.

China's economic problems will persist for some time and thus we may see further volatility.

Nifty has given back all its gains that it made after Modi came to power. From now on, I think investors will have realistic expectations and will be very choosy about the stocks they push up.

7100 is the next major support, but that does not mean the markets will go to that level. On the upside 7500-7550 is the next major resistance.
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  #415  
Old 29th March 2016, 07:45 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post
7100 is the next major support, but that does not mean the markets will go to that level. On the upside 7500-7550 is the next major resistance.

sachinjee can market take the level of 7500-7550 as support ? or the rally we have seen is a trap the traders standing sidelines with money to invest, and the big journey downwards begin again

disc: invested all the money i have in last 10-15 days
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  #416  
Old 29th March 2016, 09:26 PM
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Market waiting for RBI before taking directions. We broke 7600 today but we can again trap bears if bears have shorted nifty. This directionless market will go in for some time I think. China is slowing so commodity is weakening and tensions going down in middle East so oil will drift lower.

Just sit tight with stop losses. Tomorrow bears can be trapped again.
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  #417  
Old 12th August 2016, 09:37 AM
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hello adminjee, can you please update nifty technical chart here.
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  #418  
Old 12th August 2016, 11:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ramkasi View Post
hello adminjee, can you please update nifty technical chart here.
Look bullish for now, but better to be cautious as valuations are very high, especially in mid-caps.

Yesterday all 3 major US indices made fresh all time closing highs.

Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Close at Records on Same Day for First Time Since 1999 - WSJ

On daily chart, Nifty is continuing its breakout from H&S pattern.

On weekly chart, last week was a "hanging man", but this week Nifty has not given a bearish confirmation. Today's closing will be important.



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  #419  
Old 30th August 2016, 06:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post
Look bullish for now, but better to be cautious as valuations are very high, especially in mid-caps.
PE of all the indices are too high (compared to historical averages), whether it is Large Cap, Mid-Cap or Small-Cap.
Momentum may take the indices way higher in the short term, but for long-term investors the markets are giving jitters.

Although long term sips have given very good returns, But now does it make sense to continue sips or better should one even redeem and book profits of last few years from sip ?

And wait at the side lines ?
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  #420  
Old 31st August 2016, 09:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Atiker View Post
PE of all the indices are too high (compared to historical averages), whether it is Large Cap, Mid-Cap or Small-Cap.
Momentum may take the indices way higher in the short term, but for long-term investors the markets are giving jitters.
There is too much liquidity (money) in the system.

The Fed has been talking about future rate hikes for years, but nothing has happened till now. The same could continue for many months or years.

Even if a rate hike comes, it will be minimal and not likely to have any impact on overall global liquidity.

If the Indian market keeps performing like this, we may even see a sudden gush of international funds which may take markets to much higher levels.

I think it is better to go with the flow for now, but with caution.
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  #421  
Old 31st August 2016, 02:36 PM
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Market has become crazy last two days. Stocks are flying like 5~10% just like that. I am controlling myself not to go overboard at this moment. Just watching it but slowly I am losing my patience and getting tempted.
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  #422  
Old 31st August 2016, 03:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by paran View Post
Market has become crazy last two days. Stocks are flying like 5~10% just like that. I am controlling myself not to go overboard at this moment. Just watching it but slowly I am losing my patience and getting tempted.
Yesterday's strong move was a result of an unexpected breakout.

I think majority were expecting a downward breakdown, but the market surprised.

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  #423  
Old 1st September 2016, 12:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post
There is too much liquidity (money) in the system.

The Fed has been talking about future rate hikes for years, but nothing has happened till now. The same could continue for many months or years.

Even if a rate hike comes, it will be minimal and not likely to have any impact on overall global liquidity.

If the Indian market keeps performing like this, we may even see a sudden gush of international funds which may take markets to much higher levels.

I think it is better to go with the flow for now, but with caution.
Sachin jee,

From my personal diary, comments I made to myself a few years back -

Quote:
What were you doing in Oct07 to Jan08 ? =============== PE25+
What were you doing from Oct08 to Mar09 ? ============= PE<15
And more importantly WTF were you doing during oct-nov10 ? == PE25
Will this time, history be any different ?
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  #424  
Old 1st September 2016, 12:34 PM
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Quote:
What were you doing in Oct07 to Jan08 ? =============== PE25+
What were you doing from Oct08 to Mar09 ? ============= PE<15
And more importantly WTF were you doing during oct-nov10 ? == PE25
Here are the answers -

a. Looking into last 3 years return, fully utilized the ELSS quota.
b. Scared like shit, watching the NAV of mutual funds nose dive to less than half of cost price. Can't even dare to look at direct equity portfolio.
c. No comments.
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  #425  
Old 1st September 2016, 03:11 PM
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BSE Sensex

From this data, looks like there is more steam left to reach to the level you have mentioned.

So in Large cap, we are not at the alarming level then, in terms of PE.
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  #426  
Old 10th September 2016, 02:36 PM
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The Nifty has formed a "shooting star" candle on the weekly chart, which is a bearish sign.

March 2015 top was also a "shooting star".

Dow Jones Industrial Average has broken down from a mini "Head and Shoulders" pattern and has an immediate target of around 17850.

Everything now depends on what happens on the rate front in the US.



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  #427  
Old 12th September 2016, 12:50 PM
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Bulls have still not given up.

There is no real bloodbath in the broader market, just some stocks have corrected sharply.

Only 1 stock has lost more than 10% on the NSE - Mahamaya Steel which has hit lower circuit limit of 10%.
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  #428  
Old 12th September 2016, 05:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post
Only 1 stock has lost more than 10% on the NSE - Mahamaya Steel which has hit lower circuit limit of 10%.
Never heard about it, Mahamaya Steel ......
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  #429  
Old 13th October 2016, 01:19 PM
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Technically, Nifty has broken down now and will close below the 50 EMA for first time after 2nd March 2016.

"Shooting star" has proved to be a top this time too.

Daily chart:



Weekly chart:

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  #430  
Old 17th October 2016, 12:54 PM
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Nifty has technically broken down from descending triangle.

Conventional technical target is around 8100-8150, but the triangle is pretty large and I am not sure the target will be reached.

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  #431  
Old 23rd November 2016, 12:20 AM
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NSE Nifty has roughly retraced 50% on its post-election (2014) rally for the second time.

First Blue Arrow: Nifty rallied from May 2014 (Modi declared PM) to March 2015.

First Red Arrow: Entire gain was given up from March 2015 to February 2016.

Second Blue Arrow: Nifty rallied from February 2016 to September 2016.

Second Red Arrow: Current correction after September 2016 top.

50% retracement of rally from 6825.8 (Feb 2016) to 8968.7 (Sept 2016) is 7897.25.

61.8% retracement would be 7644.4.

If 7645 comes, it won't be broken easily.


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  #432  
Old 23rd February 2017, 08:07 AM
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Nifty is looking toppish on both weekly and daily charts.

I will soon post both the charts.
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  #433  
Old 23rd February 2017, 08:55 AM
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Nifty had formed a "spinning top" last week, which is a sign on indecision.

Nifty is just below a downward sloping trendline and is slightly overbought, which is the reason why I feel it's topping out.

At the same time, if a correction comes, I don't think it will be extremely sharp. Triple tops are very rare and the probability that we are near a long-term top is also very low.

The daily chart had its own "spinning top" yesterday. RSI is also showing a negative divergence.

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  #434  
Old 3rd March 2017, 12:38 PM
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Yesterday many indices formed a bearish engulfing candle, which is usually a reliable bearish reversal signal.

NSE Bank, NSE 100, NSE 200. NSE 500 etc all formed bearish engulfing candles.

Some correction seems inevitable now. US indices are also really over-bought.

As stated earlier, I am not sure if we are near a long-term top.

Nifty may make another attempt to cross the 9000-9100 resistance zone after "resting" for some time. A successful crossing of 9100 may take us much much higher.

Bank Nifty:



Nifty 500:


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  #435  
Old 11th March 2017, 06:51 PM
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Will Nifty breakout now?

If it does, it may be headed for 10000 in the medium-term.

Tuesday's closing will be important.
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  #436  
Old 14th March 2017, 10:23 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post
Will Nifty breakout now?

If it does, it may be headed for 10000 in the medium-term.

Tuesday's closing will be important.
Thanks for the post sachinjee, ABOUT TO ask you the question about nifty fate.

I fear the repeat of what happened when Nifty touched that high 2 years back.

ramK
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  #437  
Old 14th March 2017, 12:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ramkasi View Post
Thanks for the post sachinjee, ABOUT TO ask you the question about nifty fate.

I fear the repeat of what happened when Nifty touched that high 2 years back.

ramK
At that time Nifty had continuously rallied from 5200 levels to 9000+ levels without any real price correction and thus was highly overbought.

That is not the case this time. The current move started from around 7900 on the Nifty.

Even though market is showing signs of exhaustion, I do not see any major correction coming - the Nifty just needs some time to rest.

I have attached Nifty's monthly chart below.

After 2008 top we had a deep correction.

2008 top was retested in 2010 and then again we had a correction. This time the correction was less deep.

Again in 2013, Nifty reached the 2008 levels. After spending some time around the 2008 top level, Nifty just broke out and went to 9100.

We have similar setup now, but on a smaller scale.

The 2015 top was tested in 2016 and again now in 2017. I feel sooner or later, Nifty will resume upward journey.

Other than external factors, I don't feel there is anything that can stop the Nifty now.

Of course if something horrible happens in US or EU, it could be an entirely different story.

If Trump starts a trade war with China or some right-wing anti-Eurozone anti-immigration party comes to power in any major Eurozone country, all this technical analysis will go for a toss.



Chart taken from:

www.tradingview.com
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  #438  
Old 5th April 2017, 03:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post

Will Nifty breakout now?

If it does, it may be headed for 10000 in the medium-term.

Tuesday's closing will be important.
Now, do you think this 10K mark will be achieved?

Below is the link from Money control and that news makes sense.

At this juncture, should we book our profit and stay on the side lines (or) sit tight and enjoy the ride for some more time?

A lot of people are searching for 'multibaggers' on Google: Here's why it indicates trouble for markets
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  #439  
Old 6th April 2017, 10:28 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by paran View Post
Now, do you think this 10K mark will be achieved?

Below is the link from Money control and that news makes sense.

At this juncture, should we book our profit and stay on the side lines (or) sit tight and enjoy the ride for some more time?

A lot of people are searching for 'multibaggers' on Google: Here's why it indicates trouble for markets
I agree that the market seems too hot now and needs a bit of cooling down. Many stocks are going up without any apparent reason or for silly reasons. Thus caution is advised.

However, I still feel there is a lot more upside in Nifty and I expect the Nifty to continue its upward journey in the medium and long term.

Trump and EU risks remain.
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  #440  
Old 11th May 2017, 11:15 AM
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US VIX has already fallen below 10 and is at 2 decade low.

India VIX is also around 10, which is much below long term averages.

The market isn't expecting sharp moves anytime soon.

It is possible that the market slowly keeps moving up steadily in next few weeks or consolidates in a range.

Investors should watchout for unexpected events, which could lead to sharp increase in VIX.
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