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  #361  
Old 12th August 2011, 05:53 PM
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What happened today? Dow up 4% + and rest of world down? Any explanation?
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  #362  
Old 18th August 2011, 03:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by muralisankars View Post
So, what does it means? We are going to see Lot more downside?
The pattern has a target of somewhere near 4200.

The target may or may not be reached, but that's the figure that we get if we use conventional pattern analysis.

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Price Target: After breaking neckline support, the projected price decline is found by measuring the distance from the neckline to the top of the head. This distance is then subtracted from the neckline to reach a price target. Any price target should serve as a rough guide, and other factors should be considered as well. These factors might include previous support levels, Fibonacci retracements, or long-term moving averages.
Head and Shoulders Top (Reversal) - ChartSchool - StockCharts.com
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  #363  
Old 19th August 2011, 01:20 PM
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Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post
The weekly chart of Nifty doesn't look good.

Nifty has gone below the 50 week EMA.

23.6% retracement of the entire bull market is 5374.

If that doesn't hold, Nifty may go down to 4778 (38.2% retracement).

Nifty is now approaching a strong support level - 4778.

See above chart for reference.

Levels in the chart are approximate. 4761 is not the exact level, 4778 is.
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  #364  
Old 19th August 2011, 04:58 PM
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Is it possible to say when roughly we'll hit the bottom? Before Diwali? Because I am holding stocks like Deltacorp at above 130 (today's close 87.50), Prakash Industries at 170 (today's close 51.95), and Skumarsynf at around 84 (today's close 41.65). In each and every case my money has halved, though the mistake is mine, because I bought them at a time when I didn't know anything at all about the market, and when the stocks fell, I thought if I held them for two years they would give me a good profit when now seems to be the right time to enter.

Deltacorp had looked like it was going to go up but with the whole market coming down, it too has fallen, so if I could get some idea of what to expect in the coming days, I might exit partially at a loss now and buy back at a lower price.
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  #365  
Old 20th August 2011, 02:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post
The pattern has a target of somewhere near 4200.

The target may or may not be reached, but that's the figure that we get if we use conventional pattern analysis.
That will be mouth watering for super long term - dump and forget types.
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  #366  
Old 20th August 2011, 02:49 PM
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May be you guys would not agree with me but I am seeing Nifty levels of 3100 till end of 2012.

By then market will play hide and sick

Happy Investing!
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  #367  
Old 20th August 2011, 03:13 PM
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Originally Posted by San Yad View Post
May be you guys would not agree with me but I am seeing Nifty levels of 3100 till end of 2012.
By then market will play hide and sick
Happy Investing!
I will be happy if market goes to your predicted level really !
I am a net saver for the last 5 years and will be a investor for next decade or two.
It is good if market remains low when I am in investing phase.

Actually high market levels are not good for investors, but for those who are near their goals and want to exit.

Smart traders should be able to make money in bull as well as in bear markets.
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  #368  
Old 4th October 2011, 02:43 PM
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Today, Nifty is once again trying to find support around 4778 level (see post #363).

This is the third time that 4778 is being tested.

Earlier Nifty has closed below 4778 for one day (26th August) and touched 4778 on 26th September.

I don't know if 4778 will hold this time, but I can say one thing - triple bottoms are very rare.
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  #369  
Old 4th October 2011, 04:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post
Today, Nifty is once again trying to find support around 4778 level (see post #363).

This is the third time that 4778 is being tested.

Earlier Nifty has closed below 4778 for one day (26th August) and touched 4778 on 26th September.

I don't know if 4778 will hold this time, but I can say one thing - triple bottoms are very rare.
NIFTY closed at 4772. So 4778 is broken. What does this rare triple bottom event indicate for the market?
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  #370  
Old 4th October 2011, 05:26 PM
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Originally Posted by sudhashbahu View Post
NIFTY closed at 4772. So 4778 is broken. What does this rare triple bottom event indicate for the market?
Actually the support has held today.

Technical analysis is not an exact science and many times stocks do overshoot crucial supports/resistances and then reverse direction.

e.g. 4778 was broken in August for a day and then Nifty reversed its direction.

What I meant was that if a support is hit for the third time, the possibility that the support will eventually be taken out is very high.

Even if market bounces back from here, 4778 is likely to break in days to come.

Note:

Long-term bottoms are spread over time. If a stock hits a support level on three consecutive days and then starts a long-term uptrend, it won't be considered a triple bottom, but the three days will actually be considered a single bottom.
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  #371  
Old 4th October 2011, 10:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post
Actually the support has held today.
When does one consider support of 4778 as "broken" or "held"?
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  #372  
Old 5th October 2011, 01:44 AM
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An interesting downtrend is in progress. I think there is scope for the trend to continue for more than a year.

As such 2012 is considered a bleak year :-)

http://img4.imageshack.us/img4/3412/bakedchart.png
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  #373  
Old 5th October 2011, 09:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sudhashbahu View Post
When does one consider support of 4778 as "broken" or "held"?
Well, many major indices are in same position as the Nifty.

S&P 500 is just above the 38.2% retracement, just like the Nifty.

FTSE 100 is just above the 50% retracement.

DAX is just above the 61.8% retracement.

If a breakdown happens, it will be a worldwide sell-off and it will come with strong price and volume action.

Yesterday, S&P 500 went below the 38.2% level for some time and bounced back sharply.

Decisions made in Europe will determine where we go from here.

Here is the chart of S&P 500. Note how it has been ranged between 23.6% and 38.2% levels.

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  #374  
Old 5th October 2011, 05:53 PM
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Quote:
e.g. 4778 was broken in August for a day and then Nifty reversed its direction.

What I meant was that if a support is hit for the third time, the possibility that the support will eventually be taken out is very high.

Even if market bounces back from here, 4778 is likely to break in days to come.
What would be down side view for nifty in long run?

I still feel that my mentioned target would get in the time frame.

This recessionary issue could be dragged till end of 2012. We will see the effect in end of the new year or early 2013.

Happy Investing!

Last edited by San Yad : 5th October 2011 at 06:01 PM.
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  #375  
Old 10th October 2011, 10:10 AM
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Originally Posted by San Yad View Post
What would be down side view for nifty in long run?
There is a strong support for the Nifty in the 4200-4300 range.

If I have to place a bet on where the bottom will be formed, I will say somewhere between 4200 and 4300.

4296 is the 50% retracement of Nifty's rally from 2252.75 to 6338.5.

Also 4200 is the target for the "Head and Shoulders" pattern that I have mentioned earlier.

Everything now depends on how things unfold in Europe.

Europe's economic problems are very serious.

What amplifies the risk is the fact that politicians, not economists are trying to fix the problems. .

As of now, I think it is best to keep investing in small amounts over the next few months and keep track on events in Europe.
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  #376  
Old 19th October 2011, 09:49 PM
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Default Tripple top?

Looks like nifty has a triple top at 5160's.
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  #377  
Old 20th October 2011, 10:18 AM
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Originally Posted by ginrocks View Post
Looks like nifty has a triple top at 5160's.
We are in a tight range now.

The direction of the breakout will depend on what happens in Europe.

Even if the Nifty goes above 5160, there are multiple resistances just above that level.

Maybe Nifty is trying to fill the gap that was left at the trendline (highlighted by yellow oval).

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  #378  
Old 20th November 2011, 06:40 AM
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Alchemistjee, what's your take on nifty is it heading towards 4400/4500 levels ?

Should we start accumulating/averaging process now?

Thanks

Ram
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  #379  
Old 20th November 2011, 09:31 AM
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An upside breakout did happen after Eurozone leaders decided to leverage EFSF.

However, the breakout was just a one-day trap.

As I had suspected in my earlier post, Nifty just wanted to close the gap that it had left in August.

Below 4700, the next strong support is 4296 (4296 is the 50% retracement of Nifty's rally from 2252.75 to 6338.50).

Nifty is oversold in the short-term and may bounce back a bit, but I don't expect anything more than a short-term bounce back.

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  #380  
Old 20th November 2011, 09:41 AM
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Technically, the Nifty still looks weak and seems to be headed for 4200-4300.

Fundamentally, there is some value in the Indian markets. US stocks look even more attractive.

Eurozone crisis is weighing down on the entire world. As long as uncertainty remains in the Eurozone, I don't think we can have a long-term bull market in either US or the emerging markets.
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  #381  
Old 20th November 2011, 12:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post
Technically, the Nifty still looks weak and seems to be headed for 4200-4300.

Fundamentally, there is some value in the Indian markets. US stocks look even more attractive.

Eurozone crisis is weighing down on the entire world. As long as uncertainty remains in the Eurozone, I don't think we can have a long-term bull market in either US or the emerging markets.
We are just waiting for that transitory target.

Later when we will be there then people will start talking more lower targets. That I think quite possible.

Happy investing !
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  #382  
Old 21st November 2011, 02:25 PM
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I am toying with the idea of starting a small SIP in NIFTY BEES if the index falls below 4700.
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  #383  
Old 22nd November 2011, 01:57 PM
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Originally Posted by sudhashbahu View Post
I am toying with the idea of starting a small SIP in NIFTY BEES if the index falls below 4700.
BEST IDEA, go for it, if index reaches 6300 in 2 yours you would make 15%.
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  #384  
Old 23rd November 2011, 09:03 AM
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4778 support has been broken.

Even though the market is highly oversold, I don't see much chance of any meaningful bounce from these levels.

Note the RSI is lowest in last 3 years.

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  #385  
Old 23rd November 2011, 09:14 AM
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What is the next support level to consider now?
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  #386  
Old 23rd November 2011, 09:28 AM
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Originally Posted by sudhashbahu View Post
What is the next support level to consider now?
No real major support before 4296.

At the same time, I think Nifty supports are secondary now.

What happens in Europe is more important than what happens here in India.

European bond yields are more important than Nifty levels. .
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  #387  
Old 3rd January 2012, 04:07 PM
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Folks I want to mention one thing, I have been noticing that for last 10-15 days only thing that is discussed on e-investing is bonds, NCD issues.

Isn't that contrary signal that market has bottomed or when it will bottom this year it will outperform the bond market?

Retail investor is again too busy with bonds? It will miss out on stock market? If one looks over 2-3 year horizon.

I have bitten this bullet once with Tata Motors, in 2008 when stock was at 300 I invested in their 3 year FD for a return of 11%. We all know Stock in 3 years made 1200, you can calculate the return.
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  #388  
Old 17th February 2012, 07:13 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by man4urheart View Post
Folks I want to mention one thing, I have been noticing that for last 10-15 days only thing that is discussed on e-investing is bonds, NCD issues.

Isn't that contrary signal that market has bottomed or when it will bottom this year it will outperform the bond market?

Retail investor is again too busy with bonds? It will miss out on stock market? If one looks over 2-3 year horizon.

I have bitten this bullet once with Tata Motors, in 2008 when stock was at 300 I invested in their 3 year FD for a return of 11%. We all know Stock in 3 years made 1200, you can calculate the return.
As I said, Nifty outperformed Fixed deposits!.
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  #389  
Old 9th May 2012, 06:16 AM
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Sachinjee kindly provide your view on Nifty and bank index technicals. Will the macros of the market pull the technical levels significantly low from here? Thank you.
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  #390  
Old 9th May 2012, 07:24 AM
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Originally Posted by ramkasi View Post
Sachinjee kindly provide your view on Nifty and bank index technicals. Will the macros of the market pull the technical levels significantly low from here? Thank you.
Nifty has broken down from a descending triangle pattern and has a downside target of somewhere around 4800-4850.

I don't think investors should be worrying about Nifty's technicals right now. If there is anything that investors should worry about, it is the Eurozone.

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  #391  
Old 18th May 2012, 09:13 AM
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Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post
The weekly chart of Nifty doesn't look good.

Nifty has gone below the 50 week EMA.

23.6% retracement of the entire bull market is 5374.

If that doesn't hold, Nifty may go down to 4778 (38.2% retracement).

Again we are approaching the 4778 level. I think the support should hold today.

That's an old chart, but it tells us why 4778 is important. .
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