Alpa Laboratories Limited - Rs 8-10, but the grey market volumes are thin and so I don't consider the figure reliable. Next one or two days will give a more accurate view.
i am always seaching grey prices of ipos on the net. Thanks for starting such a good feature. But before applying we should always look fundamentals which helps in long term.
If past performance of the company is good chances for him to perform in future is also good ! Also look for growth (PEG) . Alkemist please also provide PEG ratio of diff. Cos.
If fundmentals are good performanc of co. is least affected by the different Govt. policies !
i am always seaching grey prices of ipos on the net. Thanks for starting such a good feature. But before applying we should always look fundamentals which helps in long term.
If past performance of the company is good chances for him to perform in future is also good ! Also look for growth (PEG) . Alkemist please also provide PEG ratio of diff. Cos.
If fundmentals are good performanc of co. is least affected by the different Govt. policies !
I would say it is usually safe to apply for a stock, if there is a hefty premium on it in the grey market.
Fundamentals are more important once a stock lists.
I have the following strategy:
Low Grey Market Premium , Poor Fundamentals = Do Not Apply.
Low Grey Market Premium , Good Fundamentals = Apply On Last Day; Do A Stop-Payment if Undersubscribed; Hold for Long Term if Alloted. (The reason for doing a stop-payment is to avoid getting 100% allotment - if the fundamentals are good, it is better to buy a smaller quantity after listing.)
High Grey Market Premium , Poor Fundamentals = Apply; Sell On Listing
High Grey Market Premium , Good Fundamentals = Apply; Hold For Long Term.
I will post on different IPOs on individual basis later.
I would say it is usually safe to apply for a stock, if there is a hefty premium on it in the grey market.
Fundamentals are more important once a stock lists.
I have the following strategy:
Low Grey Market Premium , Poor Fundamentals = Do Not Apply.
Low Grey Market Premium , Good Fundamentals = Apply On Last Day; Do A Stop-Payment if Undersubscribed; Hold for Long Term if Alloted. (The reason for doing a stop-payment is to avoid getting 100% allotment - if the fundamentals are good, it is better to buy a smaller quantity after listing.)
High Grey Market Premium , Poor Fundamentals = Apply; Sell On Listing
High Grey Market Premium , Good Fundamentals = Apply; Hold For Long Term.
I will post on different IPOs on individual basis later.
It is an excellent knowledge based forum and credit goes to you for maintaining supreme quality.
I want to know one thing: From where you source grey market premium information ? I make my investment decision looking at grey market premium and hence i was asking you is it a reliable source ?
Yes the source is reliable. Don't worry about that. .
Grey market isn't 100% accurate about listing prices. There may be a 10-15% variation.
e.g. Spice had Rs 11 premium, but went as high as 67 on the first day and closed at Rs 61.
Also grey market premiums change on daily basis.
However they give you a rough idea about the demand for the stock and this is very useful.
You can go wrong with IPOs that have thin premiums like Cairn and Alpa Laboratories, but you can never go wrong with IPOs that have 50%-100%-150% premiums.
You can blindly apply for them.
Holding for long term or selling on listing is another matter and this decision depends on individual stocks.
High grey market premium doesn't mean a good long term investment.
Low grey market premium doesn't mean a bad long term investment.
Cairn may have listed below issue price, but looking at the world oil scenario, it is one of the best low risk investment in the market.
Till 2 PM, the retail portion has been subscribed 6 times and overall the IPO has been subscribed 25 times.
Looking at this figures, there seems a chance. that everyone applying for 320 shares, will get some shares.
First Global's report says the NPV for Omaxe is Rs 342. Different analysts arrive at different figures for NPVs and so it is very difficult to value real estate companies.
You are right..different ways of valuing a real estate company..but now ina revised report on moneycontrol, most says it has NPV of Rs 450..they have discounted three year cash flows i think at 15%..
Hindu Business Line has advised to AVOID both IVR and CBI.
Whats ur take on this? Should one really avoid these issues?
Will there be any listing gains? Whats the expected oversubscription? How do u think QIBs will react to these issues?
Omni is trading at 170 while omaxe is at 100...I feel omaxe is much better issue then omni...I think grey market have not done true price discovery in these 2 issues.
Omni is trading at 170 while omaxe is at 100...I feel omaxe is much better issue then omni...I think grey market have not done true price discovery in these 2 issues.
Grey market is just like the stock markets. Most stocks are either undervalued or overvalued. .
Grey Market Premiums for some of the recent IPOs:
Closed IPOs
Simplex - Rs 160.
Alpa Labs - (Discount. The IPO was subscribed only 1.1 times.)
Omaxe - Rs 100.
Omnitech Info - Rs 100.
Zylog - Rs 330.
IVR Prime Urban - Rs 14.
Central Bank - Rs 38.
SEL - Rs 5.
Asian Granito India - Rs 10.
Refex - Rs 18. (Sorry. This was a BSE-only issue and I didn't cover it. The IPO is already over.)
What do you think of Take Systems, last day is tomorrow and they are subscribed only upto .3415 times at 1 PM today in RII category.
Hardly any fresh bids have come for Take Solutions today.
I suggest you wait till 2 pm tomorrow and apply even if the retail category gets subscribed 1.5-2 times.
The grey market premium is down for all stocks today and Take is slightly above Rs 300.
Everything depends on the response that the IPO gets tomorrow.
Do not rely much on grey market premiums in such volatile markets. Apply only if you are sure about the fundamentals of the company.
Look, what happened to Puravankara. Initially it had a premium of Rs 40. This meant the grey market was expecting it to list around Rs 560. Now, the new price band has upper limit of Rs 450 and premium left is Rs 10 or so.
Closed IPOs
Omaxe - Rs 80.
Omnitech Info - Rs 90.
Zylog - Rs 280.
IVR Prime Urban - Rs 8.
Central Bank - Rs 36.
SEL - Rs 2.
Asian Granito India - Rs 10.
Refex - Rs 14.
Hi Admin
What your suggestion which one I should go for max. gains Purvankara or projects or take solutions IPO?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alchemist
Hardly any fresh bids have come for Take Solutions today.
I suggest you wait till 2 pm tomorrow and apply even if the retail category gets subscribed 1.5-2 times.
The grey market premium is down for all stocks today and Take is slightly above Rs 300.
Everything depends on the response that the IPO gets tomorrow.
Do not rely much on grey market premiums in such volatile markets. Apply only if you are sure about the fundamentals of the company.
Look, what happened to Puravankara. Initially it had a premium of Rs 40. This meant the grey market was expecting it to list around Rs 560. Now, the new price band has upper limit of Rs 450 and premium left is Rs 10 or so.
Closed IPOs
Omaxe - Rs 80.
Omnitech Info - Rs 90.
Zylog - Rs 280.
IVR Prime Urban - Rs 8.
Central Bank - Rs 36.
SEL - Rs 2.
Asian Granito India - Rs 10.
Refex - Rs 14.
Hi Admin
What your suggestion which one I should go for max. gains Purvankara or projects or take solutions IPO?
Take Solutions seems to be the better choice now, but as I have said earlier, the valuations of Take solutions seem to be on the higher side and one must sell on listing.
I don't expect Take to do much in next 12-18 months.
Purvankara firm allotment- Now i cant say whether it will be firm gain on listing. It is a real drama going on and valuations are very expensive. DLF gave premium but DLF execution of large scale projects is awesome.
I have gone for take and will play the lottery. The central bank money will come soon and the money will sit idle for the time being till new issues come out.
Purvankara firm allotment- Now i cant say whether it will be firm gain on listing. It is a real drama going on and valuations are very expensive. DLF gave premium but DLF execution of large scale projects is awesome.
I have gone for take and will play the lottery. The central bank money will come soon and the money will sit idle for the time being till new issues come out.
Puravankara still has one day left. It closes tomorrow. Take and KPR Mill closed today.
Puravankara is subscribed 0.5 times in retail category. If it gets subscribed 3+ times in retail tomorrow, I will take a chance at lower end of the price band.
Grey Market Premiums for some of the recent IPOs: Closed IPOs
Omaxe - Rs 80.
Omnitech Info - Rs 80.
Zylog - Rs 290.
IVR Prime Urban - Rs 5.
Central Bank - Rs 38.
SEL - Rs 2.
Asian Granito India - Rs 8.
Refex - Rs 10.
Take Solutions - Rs 320.
KPR Mills - Not Much Interest.
Current IPOs
Puravankara - Rs 8.
Sentiments in the markets have still not improved much. Apply only if you are sure about the fundamentals of the company.
Can you please explain to me the basis of calculation of premiums in gray market? What could be the logic behind it?
No logic. All speculation.
It is simple demand-supply market. Just like normal markets, people sell and buy stocks. However, in this case the trade is done before the stocks get listed.
The intermediary is responsible for both parties fulfilling their commitments. It is trust-based system.
Current IPO Grey Market Premiums
Excellent feature( Grey market prices)
Grey market prices
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What is the mechanism/ Basis for calculation of premium
Linear Mode
