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  #1  
Old 24th March 2012, 05:47 PM
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Default MCX - Multi Commodity Exchange of India



What is the future of this stock 6 months down the line? Will it cross 1500?
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  #2  
Old 24th March 2012, 06:04 PM
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Most of the medium-term positives for this stock are already factored in the price.

In my opinion, MCX will follow the general market for next few months.
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  #3  
Old 17th April 2012, 09:19 AM
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MCX India - Board declares Interim Dividend.
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  #4  
Old 4th May 2012, 07:44 PM
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Default MCX - Multi Commodity Exchange of India

The stock is falling everyday post its dividend declaration and touched 1009 today. Are there any fundamental problems in the past days with the stock?
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  #5  
Old 4th May 2012, 07:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Raghav View Post
Are there any fundamental problems in the past days with the stock?
Nothing that I know of.

Anyone knows when MCX will be declaring its Q4 results?
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  #6  
Old 4th May 2012, 09:10 PM
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The volumes of top 2 commodities traded on MCX (gold and silver) are down between 20% to 30% in last 6 months (both in volume and value terms)

This has triggered a decent fall in the stock prices.

MCX publishes volume traded data, which is a readily actionable item for traders, and will drive prices.
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  #7  
Old 4th May 2012, 10:11 PM
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Business Line : Markets / Stock Markets : MCX shares slip below issue price

The reason for downfall looks to be that regulator might be placing restriction on it indirectly after big commodity mess up in guar got out.

Though they won't have been involved but they too will face some regulation I feel.

Also the parent Financial Technologies share is also going down.
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  #8  
Old 5th May 2012, 04:56 PM
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I am thinking of averaging, just waiting for it to fall below 1000.
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  #9  
Old 5th May 2012, 08:18 PM
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At what price you have?

I feel there is much time to average the stock.

I feel it might easily test less than 900 levels if market goes around 15000 levels.
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  #10  
Old 5th May 2012, 08:57 PM
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I got it on the first day of listing, 10 around 1350 , yes this will test 900 shortly even if the market does not touch 15000.I don't think market will test 15000 levels. max around 16000.
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  #11  
Old 5th May 2012, 10:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Newby View Post
I got it on the first day of listing, 10 around 1350 , yes this will test 900 shortly even if the market does not touch 15000.I don't think market will test 15000 levels. max around 16000.
Well to be frank I was reading an article today.

Well you are right one can't say which level markets will test.But according to the article the most amusing thing was in present situation market being at 17000 levels is the biggest surprise. Because all over the world recession type slowdown is still effective. Every 2nd person you meet in world is unhappy because of market situation. Oil prices even on slightest news runs any way. Gold trading all time high. And so on.

Bottom line was sit on cash or one sitting on cash is king.

Either average it but not now.Or buy something better when market falls with strong fundamentals.

Banks are yet to see the pain and the biggest bad news might come from biggie like PNB where a default by non payment by electric board might show you price something which you never thought of. No doubt later government will bail out. Hence I plan to stick with PSU companies for now in downfall especially with good dividend record. I know they won't pay the same now but later when market revives they'll pay both ways in returns as well as tax free dividend money.
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  #12  
Old 6th May 2012, 11:21 AM
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Hi magnet,

From which year have you started investing in stocks ?

I believe it is of critical importance to investors to experience a harsh bear market early in their investing life. That helps in lot many ways.

Having seen the sub-prime crash and it's toll on markets, I believe these times of gloom and doom are best suited for making long term investments.

Markets always factor in the future and do not ponder on the present. So expect the benchmark indices to be a leading indicator of economic recovery.

Their are global structural issues all around Europe and US, but life has not come to stand still. This phase shall pass too, and when the markets rebound the persons investing consistently will be rewarded the maximum.

Having faced the lows of Oct 2008 and Mar 2009, and the subsequent recovery in late 2009 and most of 2010, I won't miss any such opportunity this time round.

Happy Investing
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  #13  
Old 6th May 2012, 02:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prudent_Investor View Post
Hi magnet,

From which year have you started investing in stocks ?

I believe it is of critical importance to investors to experience a harsh bear market early in their investing life. That helps in lot many ways.

Having seen the sub-prime crash and it's toll on markets, I believe these times of gloom and doom are best suited for making long term investments.

Markets always factor in the future and do not ponder on the present. So expect the benchmark indices to be a leading indicator of economic recovery.

Their are global structural issues all around Europe and US, but life has not come to stand still. This phase shall pass too, and when the markets rebound the persons investing consistently will be rewarded the maximum.

Having faced the lows of Oct 2008 and Mar 2009, and the subsequent recovery in late 2009 and most of 2010, I won't miss any such opportunity this time round.

Happy Investing
My first investment was Coal India ipo. Though my family held 2-4 shares in old physical form then. But they sold most of their stocks like HPCL, BOB,SIemens and others which have got in ipo when pan card was getting introduced and being uneducated they fear holding the card then.

Anyways even I feel a bear market is a wonderful opportunity to enter a market for a long time investor who has least interest in day to day tracking.

I have been reading a lot about people who bought stocks of company dirt cheap in 2008 slowdown worth rupees a lakh and their present holding in 4-5 years is worth 80 lakhs plus on top of that they earn 2-4 lakhs dividend.

But this time i feel the slowdown will be like a single bad news market might make big fall in 3-5 sessions and in no time will bounce back if FII turn to invest back.

But the trigger has to be Europe fall, right now the fall is because of all the GAAR issue I feel. Like black money of India even foreign people have issues with their black money and once gaar is out it won't be right for them that a foreign destination leaks out how that nation is investing somewhere else as it might trigger their fall.
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  #14  
Old 7th May 2012, 05:59 AM
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How soon do you expect market to go down?

And will MCX touch around 800? Because that is the level people were talking of, about the time it listed, that you should enter at that level.
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  #15  
Old 13th October 2012, 07:42 PM
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Still having IPO shares. Was thinking to exit but now seeing 2 dividends and also their exchange coming around this Diwali. Should I stick with the stock?

This stock really looks to have strong fundamentals and most important ,commodities in which world over more trading happens than equity is also with them.

Hence feeling to stick with the company.
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  #16  
Old 2nd August 2013, 10:24 AM
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Future trouble?

Fidelity and HDFC Bank too have stake in it?

What are the chances if something worst happens with NSEL (closed)?

Even MCX might be in trouble?

Also can other promoter or stake holders buys FT stake and throw them out?

I have seen lot of sell has happened lately in MCX and promoter stake has indeed reduced.
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  #17  
Old 2nd August 2013, 12:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by magnet View Post
What are the chances if something worst happens with NSEL (closed)?

Even MCX might be in trouble?

Also can other promoter or stake holders buys FT stake and throw them out?

I have seen lot of sell has happened lately in MCX and promoter stake has indeed reduced.
MCX won't be in any trouble unless the main promoters (Financial Technologies and related persons) do something illegal/fraudulent in it.

If Financial Technologies is found guilty of some wrongdoing in NSEL case, there will be no need for any other shareholders of MCX to do anything.

The regulators themself will take away control of MCX from Financial Technologies.
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  #18  
Old 2nd August 2013, 02:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post
MCX won't be in any trouble unless the main promoters (Financial Technologies and related persons) do something illegal/fraudulent in it.

If Financial Technologies is found guilty of some wrongdoing in NSEL case, there will be no need for any other shareholders of MCX to do anything.

The regulators themself will take away control of MCX from Financial Technologies.
In that case I as shareholder should exit or hold just like SATYAM.
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  #19  
Old 2nd August 2013, 03:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by magnet View Post
In that case I as shareholder should exit or hold just like SATYAM.
I suggest you hold, but don't average.

MCX has many big shareholders and they will try their best to set everything right.

MCX is India's biggest commodity exchange and it won't be allowed to collapse. Rescuing MCX is as important as rescuing Satyam was, maybe more important.

Note: next few weeks and months can be very painful for the investors.
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  #20  
Old 2nd August 2013, 09:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post
I suggest you hold, but don't average.

MCX has many big shareholders and they will try their best to set everything right.

MCX is India's biggest commodity exchange and it won't be allowed to collapse. Rescuing MCX is as important as rescuing Satyam was, maybe more important.

Note: next few weeks and months can be very painful for the investors.
Actually I have more faith in MCX and Care rather than Coal India. I hold just 2 shares in my and my mother folio. And I find it as nice opportunity to add more but I won't be greedy. Will add 3 more quantity on Monday I guess. I am not making investment in my sis folio where I have IPO holding. I'll wait for circuit to open there and more clarity.
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  #21  
Old 7th August 2013, 10:43 AM
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At current prices MCX has a dividend yield of over 8%.

Even if we consider the fall in volumes in recent months, the company should be able to report around Rs 200 crore of PAT in FY 2014 and distribute Rs 80 crore - Rs 100 crore as dividend.

The current valuations can only be justified if there is some kind of fraud at MCX too.

Only about 18000 shares have been traded on NSE today and it seems there is no trust left in MCX.
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  #22  
Old 7th August 2013, 12:35 PM
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If the dividend distributed is Rs 80-100 Cr, dividend works out to be about Rs 16-19 per share,yield of 5-6% at CMP.

The company also has cash and current investments of about Rs 1270 Crore against the current market cap of Rs 1523 Crore, looks like this one is headed to becoming a cash bargain soon.

But as you say the trust has been completely destroyed.

Is their any chance of FT being forced out of MCX after what happened with NSEL?
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  #23  
Old 7th August 2013, 05:04 PM
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Originally Posted by kris_mar View Post
If the dividend distributed is Rs 80-100 Cr, dividend works out to be about Rs 16-19 per share,yield of 5-6% at CMP.

The company also has cash and current investments of about Rs 1270 Crore against the current market cap of Rs 1523 Crore, looks like this one is headed to becoming a cash bargain soon.

But as you say the trust has been completely destroyed.

Is their any chance of FT being forced out of MCX after what happened with NSEL?
Do not look at cash as a separate asset.

The benefits of cash (interest income) is already included in the PAT figure of the company.

The regulators can't force FT to sell its stake in MCX, but they can take away control of MCX from FT.

If it is proved that some kind of fraud was committed in NSEL, then the regulators will have a good reason to take away control from FT. Otherwise, I am not sure.
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  #24  
Old 7th August 2013, 06:28 PM
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Originally Posted by kris_mar View Post
If the dividend distributed is Rs 80-100 Cr, dividend works out to be about Rs 16-19 per share,yield of 5-6% at CMP.

The company also has cash and current investments of about Rs 1270 Crore against the current market cap of Rs 1523 Crore, looks like this one is headed to becoming a cash bargain soon.

But as you say the trust has been completely destroyed.

Is their any chance of FT being forced out of MCX after what happened with NSEL?
We can't just look at assets alone. We have to account for the liabilities also. Liabilities are around 900 crores ( 2012 figures) , including 600 crores of margin money. That leaves around 370 crores of net cash assets or around 75 per shares. This might have increased in the last one year but it will become a cash bargain only around 100.
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  #25  
Old 7th August 2013, 09:27 PM
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Originally Posted by $$Money$$ View Post
We can't just look at assets alone. We have to account for the liabilities also. Liabilities are around 900 crores ( 2012 figures) , including 600 crores of margin money. That leaves around 370 crores of net cash assets or around 75 per shares. This might have increased in the last one year but it will become a cash bargain only around 100.
Completely dis agree with your buy call.

Deccan Chronicle had some 2500 crores on its book and was a cash buy and we all know where is our cash cow headed right now? In the Pit for butchering!

How can you be confident that the cash number or any other number is correctly reported on the books/ Annual reports?
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  #26  
Old 7th August 2013, 09:48 PM
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Originally Posted by man4urheart View Post
Completely dis agree with your buy call.

Deccan chronicle had some 2500 crores on its book and was a cash buy and we all know where is our cash cow headed right now? In the Pit for butchering!

How can you be confident that the cash number or any other number is correctly reported on the books/ Annual reports?
Where did I give a buy call! All I was trying to say what that we can't just take assets and ignore liabilities. I am not qualified to give a buy call to anybody .
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  #27  
Old 7th August 2013, 10:10 PM
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For a laymen this is a very easy explanation of what happened and what mismanagement occurred. Unfortunately or fortunately it's a broker site giving this outwith example

Z-Connect • NSEL fiasco ? Does it affect Zerodha? | Home
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  #28  
Old 8th August 2013, 09:59 AM
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SP Tulsian positive on MCX - CNBC-TV18
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  #29  
Old 9th August 2013, 08:16 AM
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HDFC Mutual Fund buys 3 lakh shares of MCX - The Economic Times

I will buy some shares on Monday as now circuit is open.

Also if there is any major problem with MCX than already it should have been out. It's the promoter stake which is putting stress and no mismanagement so far has come to notice.

NSEL was a different case as all was FT part.
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  #30  
Old 16th August 2013, 12:29 PM
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Brokers of MCX want their deposits back.

Quote:
We are willing to give bank guarantee to MCX that has unreasonably made us deposit Rs 50 lakh each in the name of trade guarantee fund," said Vivek Aggarwal of Shri Parasram Commodities. "We will stop trading from next week if MCX does not meet our demand by Saturday," he said.
Members of MCX want promoters to pay them by pledging personal shareholdings - Economic Times
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  #31  
Old 16th August 2013, 06:43 PM
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Today BNP paribas arbitrage buys 6,40,000 shares.Delivery on NSE was still below 50% of trade hence much downside still will continue.

Just trying to gauge who all are getting into it. First was HDFC MF.
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  #32  
Old 16th August 2013, 07:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by magnet View Post
Delivery on NSE was still below 50% of trade hence much downside still will continue.
In my opinion, 50% delivery rate is good.

Financial Technologies had a delivery percentage of 6.25% today.
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  #33  
Old 16th August 2013, 10:46 PM
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Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post
In my opinion, 50% delivery rate is good.
Then I must start averaging if it's not that bad.

FT is gone case.

I don't have any faith on it and I guess one default is enough to push it below 100.
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  #34  
Old 20th August 2013, 08:42 PM
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MCX needs to be insulated from the NSEL catastrophe, in my opinion FT should be forced out of MCX.
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Old 20th August 2013, 10:30 PM
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Expect MCX India to touch Rs 600-700: SP Tulsian - CNBC-TV18

But who will insulate MCX?

I was going through old pattern on moneycontrol and I find union bank and hdfc bank each holding 1% stake.

Also now MF are buying big. But why none of them asking for special ordinary meeting since this has hit the stock badly? I guess all of them together can definitely force the management out.
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  #36  
Old 26th August 2013, 04:09 PM
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NSEL fiasco: Kotak Group keen to buy out MCX as NSE sells stake - The Economic Times
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Old 7th September 2013, 08:51 AM
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MCX faces flak for attempt to back Financial Technologies group deal - The Economic Times.

Quote:
FMC is examining whether FT is 'fit and proper' to be a promoter and stakeholder in MCX. "Irrespective of any move by MCX to reconstitute its board following the exit of some directors, the regulator will check whether FT satisfies the fit and proper criteria," said a source.
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Old 7th September 2013, 11:24 AM
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MCX AGM is due in September end. No doubt more fireworks are expected in it.

Also in 10th trading session the circuit broke and countered closed lower than previous close. I guess again some down circuit might start now.

Also 2 contrary reports really confuse you

MCX-SX cash turnover rises 4.25% in August despite NSEL crisis - The Economic Times

MCX Loses 40% of Total Open Interest In The Last Few Days*|*Capital Mind
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Old 7th September 2013, 02:05 PM
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First link is about MCX-SX, the stock exchange. Second link is about MCX, the commodity exchange.
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