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  #1  
Old 20th July 2007, 07:52 PM
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Question ICICI Bank



Hi All,

Where do you guys see ICICI bank in next 3 to 4 months time?
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  #2  
Old 21st July 2007, 07:45 PM
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ICICI announced its results for FY 2008 Q1 today.

Net profit came at Rs 775 crore.

This is slightly higher than market expectations of Rs 750 - Rs 770 crore.

However I am not much impressed by the results.

The NII (net interest income) of the bank is much lower than what the markets expected.

The gains have come via fees from services and selling of financial products.

FY 2008 Q1 NII for the bank was Rs 1700 crore. (Analyst were expecting Rs 1900 crore).

FY 2008 Q1 fee based income was Rs 1400 crore.

The shortfall in Net Interest Income (NII) is clear indication that high interest rates and CRR hike is putting pressure on the core business of ICICI Bank.

Profits for last five quarters have been:

775.08 crore FY2007 Q1
825.12 crore FY2006 Q4
910.08 crore FY2006 Q3
755.01 crore FY2006 Q2
620.01 crore FY2006 Q1

Q1 is always weak for credit offtake and thus profits remain low in Q1.

FY 2008 may show 25% growth in profits. Lets assume Rs 3800 will be the final profit figure.

Considering the equity dilution that has occurred after the FPO, ICICI's forward PE works out to be around 27.

Current market capitalization of ICICI is around Rs 104000 crore ( Rs 985 per share.)

The bank seems fairly valued at Rs 985 and may not see much upside in the near term.

The bank enjoys a premium because of its size and brand in the market.

A big positive for the bank could be listing of its subsidiary ICICI Financial services.

This may provide an opportunity of value unlocking for investors. This is expected to happen in late 2008 or early 2009. ICICI's share would start reflecting the value of ICICI Financial Services, a few months before the actual listing.

Check out this thread for more on
ICICI Financial Services.

I expect ICICI give moderate returns in next few months. My target would be 1150 by April 2008.
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  #3  
Old 23rd July 2007, 07:37 PM
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Thanks a lot for the valuable information...
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  #4  
Old 28th February 2008, 04:27 PM
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Default ICICI Bank...

Hi,

What do you think about the current price of ICICI Bank(Nearly rs.1100/-)

Is this Look under valued or what?

What is the future of it?
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  #5  
Old 28th February 2008, 05:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by muralisankars View Post
Hi,

What do you think about the current price of ICICI Bank(Nearly rs.1100/-)

Is this Look under valued or what?

What is the future of it?
It is definitely not undervalued.

The stock will have an eps of around Rs 37 for FY 2008.

At current price of Rs 1113, the stock is trading at 30 times current year's earnings.

This seems slightly expensive.

Expected FY 2009 eps - Rs 48.
Expected FY 2010 eps - Rs 60+.

Negatives:

Overall, the bank is maintaining decent pace of growth, but the quality of earnings has gone down in recent quarters.

More of the earnings are coming from "fees" and NIM (net interest margins) seem a bit under pressure. Credit growth in India is slowing down too.

Positives:

The bank's reach and growth rate are superior to most of the other Indian banks.

Add to that the possible demerger of its insurance, stock broking and other businesses, and current valuations look justified.

==========================================

Banking is one sector which will keep growing with India's economy and thus can always be considered investment grade.

As the stock is already slightly expensive, I would not be overly-bullish on it.

Still, I think a price of Rs 1250 is possible by April 2009. (21 times FY 2010 earnings).

This is just 12%-13% above current price. If you want to invest for medium term, ICICI Bank is not the best stock.

For someone who wants to hold for 3-5 years, ICICI Bank is a attractive pick, with not much long term risk.

(Rs 1250 is a conservative target. For someone holding the stock, selling at current prices may not be a good idea. The stock may jump sharply when the subsidiaries are demerged).
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  #6  
Old 28th February 2008, 06:27 PM
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Thanks Alchemist....

Is there any Banking sector stocks looks attractive at this level for Medium Term?

I am watching the Karur Vysya bank for some time.... It aggresively went to 550 level .... I think now it's around 450....

what do you think about the banking sector?
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  #7  
Old 4th March 2008, 12:42 PM
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What is the Best price for ICICI Bank for Buy?

Is there any chance of it goes below 950 or something like that?
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  #8  
Old 4th March 2008, 02:05 PM
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It already went down to 930..and now its again up to 980 levels. I hope you should have bought some below 950.
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  #9  
Old 4th March 2008, 02:08 PM
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940 was the FPO price (890 for retail after discount). That would be a good price to get in.
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  #10  
Old 4th March 2008, 02:26 PM
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I don't understand why the financial media is calling it a loss due to subprime markets?

It just seems like a MTM loss on credit derivatives (with underlying as Indian instruments).

As long as the underlying securities are Indian and risk of default is less, these MTM losses mean nothing.

Credit markets are very risk-averse right now and thus the spreads have increased.

If the underlying securities are safe, the MTM losses will be just temporary.

If the underlying securities were mortgages, then it would have been a reason to worry.

As of now, the markets seem to be over-reacting.
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  #11  
Old 4th March 2008, 03:23 PM
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890 or lows is achievable! ....It all started from 890 and should come back to 890.....

- It is also forming "Rounding top" same as SBI & GRASIM shown by Red Lines....
- today's selling was accompanied by huge volumes, more of Panic Selling...
- If one look carefully it is also a breakout from Descending triangle with accompanied huge volumes, Target 600 - 700 in worst case selling.( Not shown in this graph) Look at below link....

For further support targets also look here
ICICI Bank

Last edited by man4urheart : 4th March 2008 at 06:31 PM.
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  #12  
Old 4th March 2008, 06:13 PM
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Detailed article about ICICI credit derivative Loses

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...ajI&refer=home

Last edited by man4urheart : 4th March 2008 at 06:15 PM.
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  #13  
Old 5th March 2008, 09:05 AM
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ICICI has already issued an official clarification.

It is available on NSE's site. (See announcement dated 4th March).

In simple words:

-ICICI bank has no exposure to US/European subprime mortgages.
-The MTM losses are due to spreads widening for credit derivatives.
-ICICI bank had MTM losses of $155 million at the end of 2007, of which $88 million has already been accounted for.
-ICICI bank's subsidiaries had MTM losses of $108 million at the end of 2007, of which $101 million has already been accounted for.

Thus out of $263 million, $189 million has already been account for.

Absorbing the remaining $74 million (Rs 300 crore) may not be a big thing for ICICI bank.

==============================================

Investors should not panic because of this development.

At the same time, it must be kept in mind that ICICI's stock is a part of the market.

The stock's sell-off is more because of the overall market sentiment and less because of the above development.
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  #14  
Old 8th March 2008, 04:01 PM
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Default Buy Question

Hi ppl,

I bought small quantities of ICICI Bank at 870 levels.. what is the fair value of this stock.. do you suggest further averaging down of the stock... what is the new support level for this stock
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  #15  
Old 8th March 2008, 05:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enigmatic View Post
Hi ppl,

I bought small quantities of ICICI Bank at 870 levels.. what is the fair value of this stock.. do you suggest further averaging down of the stock... what is the new support level for this stock
760 and 610 are good supports.

I would not average unless it comes to 610.
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  #16  
Old 9th March 2008, 10:50 PM
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Alchemist:
In this thread, post #2, you wrote:

"A big positive for the bank could be listing of its subsidiary ICICI Financial services.

This may provide an opportunity of value unlocking for investors. This is expected to happen in late 2008 or early 2009. ICICI's share would start reflecting the value of ICICI Financial Services, a few months before the actual listing."

and later, in post #5, you wrote:
"(Rs 1250 is a conservative target. For someone holding the stock, selling at current prices may not be a good idea. The stock may jump sharply when the subsidiaries are demerged)."

Please explain how this works, especially why the subsidiaries' value is not reflected in the stock price always.

In the case of a demerger, would it be like Novartis spinning off Syngenta and the holders of Novartis shares getting Syngenta for free, with a subsequent diminution of the Novartis share price?

Can the bank issue fresh equity for these subsidiaries in the form of IPOs, in which case how will the current ICICI Bank shareholder benefit?
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  #17  
Old 10th March 2008, 02:17 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vasa1 View Post

Can the bank issue fresh equity for these subsidiaries in the form of IPOs, in which case how will the current ICICI Bank shareholder benefit?
See this thread on value unlocking.

ICICI bank has a few subsidiaries.

It wants to create a holding company for these subsidiaries and then list the holding company.

RBI is against this idea.

Thus, ICICI may decide to list the subsidiaries directly on the exchanges.

It is come out with individual IPO's of each of these subsidiaries.

============================

The will be no change in value of the stock, but the change will be in the perception.

Always remember - "value unlocking" is not "value creation".
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  #18  
Old 10th March 2008, 12:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post
760 and 610 are good supports.

I would not average unless it comes to 610.


I depends upon your earlier buying price. If someone has bought when it was at 1300 levels then its a good thing to take opportunity and average out at this levels of 900, of course leaving some money to again average out if the price falls further.
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  #19  
Old 12th March 2008, 06:56 PM
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Default ICICI bank is an excellent buy

ICICI closed at 884.70 yesterday. On the US exchanges the ADR closed at $45.43 which translates to 908.6 per share. (ADRs always trade at a smal premuim to the India price).

The analysts opinion (as per US analysts) for 1 year targets is:
Low: $79
Mean: $83
High: $87

Going by the low price, it translates to Rs 1580 per share. Adjusting for the ADR premuim (at current premium), the Indian price could roughly be
1580 * 884.70 / 908.6 = Rs 1538

After ICICI announced the mark-to-market losses, the Indian markets reacted (mistakenly?) by hammering the price down. probably mistaking mark-to-market loss provisions as sub-prime loss exposure. However at the same time HSBC Securites actually upgraded ICICI bank outlook as it has NO exposure to sub-prime losses.

The scrip is over-sold. Smart long term investor should buy now and hold for a year for handsome gains.
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  #20  
Old 1st April 2008, 11:57 AM
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Hi Alechemist,

Now ICICI Trading it's support level of 760.... what is your call now?
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  #21  
Old 1st April 2008, 12:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post
760 and 610 are good supports.

I would not average unless it comes to 610.
Quote:
Originally Posted by muralisankars View Post
Hi Alechemist,

Now ICICI Trading it's support level of 760.... what is your call now?
I think I made a little mistake with those supports.

The actual retracements of ICICI's rally from Rs 21 to Rs 1455 (1999-2008) will be:

50% retracement - Rs 738.
61.8% retracement - Rs 570.

Also, the 200 week EMA of ICICI bank is around Rs 720.

As the stock is oversold, I think Rs 700 - Rs 720 will provide good support for at least some days.

If Rs 700 breaks, we may go down all the way to Rs 600.
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  #22  
Old 3rd June 2008, 12:01 PM
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Default ICICI Bank

Hi All,

Any thoughts on ICICI Bank in the range of 700.

Please pour in with your inputs

Cheers.
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  #23  
Old 8th June 2008, 11:45 PM
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Selling is on in ICICI....
- Attached is weekly charts
- Skyblue dotted line is long term trend line. It has decisively broken same with good volumes on weekly charts
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  #24  
Old 7th July 2008, 01:00 PM
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is this good time to buy ICICI? or should we wait further.
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  #25  
Old 7th July 2008, 07:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by maverick View Post
is this good time to buy ICICI? or should we wait further.
I received ICICI Bank's annual report last week.

FY 2008 eps = Rs 39.15.
FY 2008 consolidated eps = Rs 32.

The consolidated eps is lower as ICICI's insurance arm (ICICI Prudential Life Insurance) had a loss of Rs 1395 crore in FY 2008.

The losses have been explained as

Quote:
higher business set-up costs in the initial years of rapid growth, non-amortisation of acquisition costs and reserving for actuarial liability in line with the insurance company account norms.
These are either one-time costs or losses due to provisioning. Nothing to worry about.

===================================

As of now, eps estimates (standalone) for ICICI bank are Rs 45 for FY 2009 and Rs 55 for FY 2010.

These may get revised downwards if Q1 results are below expectations.

Even if I assume an eps figure of Rs 50 for FY 2010, ICICI Bank is trading at just 12 times forward earnings.

(Current price is Rs 605).

For a bank with size, positioning, brand like ICICI, 12 times forward earnings is definitely an attractive price.

This is a good price for a long-term investor.

For a trader, there is a lot of uncertainty.

If we get trapped in a bear-market, we will see much lower prices - prices that may even look ridiculously undervalued.
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  #26  
Old 7th July 2008, 08:38 PM
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Nice fundamental inputs!

Here is chart



- Spike in Volume, shows buying interst for corrective bounce!
- We might get stopped out in bounce at 700 levels, else optimistic target is 765(50 EMA) or 810 upper channel trendline!
- Since the overall trend is down, buying would be a low probability trade.
- It would be a good short near Lower channel trendline or 50 EMA pullback!
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  #27  
Old 27th July 2008, 07:05 PM
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what are your thoughts on icici bank for the next week as well as next few months?
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  #28  
Old 27th July 2008, 11:40 PM
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- Price has reached its Zenith, it will reverse from here!
- You can see it is clearly in downward channel!

It will correct more in coming days. It has already corrected 61.8 % . Next outlook is somewhere between 633 and 402 (at 78%)

Last edited by man4urheart : 27th July 2008 at 11:44 PM.
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  #29  
Old 29th July 2008, 02:55 PM
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At what price should one short ICICIBank? I've shorted the August futures at 605 with a stop loss around 635. Do you think it is a good move?
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  #30  
Old 29th July 2008, 06:56 PM
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After the hike of rate by RBI what should be your stand in banking sector,will you accumulate from tomorrow in small quantity or wait for few months or completely switch down the sector.

Which bank should be better if start accumulation small quantity?
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  #31  
Old 29th July 2008, 07:41 PM
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Ideal Short would have been near trendline, as shown in above chart in Post 28

What are your basis of stoploss 635?

What I can come of with, is simply 30 min Pivot stoploss at 645.


Don't take this as recommendation

Last edited by man4urheart : 29th July 2008 at 07:46 PM.
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  #32  
Old 29th July 2008, 07:43 PM
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Default Icicibank

Quote:
Originally Posted by sanyad74 View Post
After the hike of rate by RBI what should be your stand in banking sector,will you accumulate from tomorrow in samll qty or wait for few months or completely switch down the sector
which bank sud be better if start accumulation small quantity?
Well ICICI is on my radar, I am waiting for NIFTY 3000- 3200 Levels to re enter OR
402-450 price for ICICI for my re entry!

No other banking stocks I am intersted in.....

People can safely choose from HDFC, HDFC bank and ICICI...Alchemist can enlighten Fundmental reasons here !..

I stick more to technical price targets!

Why ICICI BANK a pick. I find it fastest growing bank.

Last edited by man4urheart : 29th July 2008 at 07:45 PM.
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  #33  
Old 29th July 2008, 08:11 PM
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Originally Posted by man4urheart View Post
Well ICICI is on my radar, I am waiting for NIFTY 3000- 3200 Levels to re enter OR
402-450 price for ICICI for my re entry!

No other banking stocks I am intersted in.....

People can safely choose from HDFC, HDFC bank and ICICI...Alchemist can enlighten Fundmental reasons here !..

I stick more to technical price targets!

Why ICICI BANK a pick. I find it fastest growing bank.
Thanks man4heart,
I also have been constantly looking at icici bank price movement since long time. You know but I was thinging to re-enter when price was about 530 couple of days before. But as you mentioned that it could even go to 400 level.
Thanks for alerting me ..
but you guys think that Nifty will touch that level in few months?

I doubt!!!

May be possible near election time next year hmm...

Now Nuke deal is due.. once it is done. you will see rally in stock market for few months.
Inflation stabiliy is also a key point to hold markt here as well.


pharma sectors also looks pretty well nowas price is going down.

So Alchemist .. what you think about market in next few weeks and where we should keep our eyes?


Happy and Safe trading
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  #34  
Old 29th July 2008, 10:34 PM
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Ideal Short would have been near trendline, as shown in above chart in Post 28

What are your basis of stoploss 635?

What I can come of with, is simply 30 min Pivot stoploss at 645.


Don't take this as recommendation


Man, I am using last month's close which was 630.20 and have given some room and finally arrived at my stop loss of 635 for the short term. I might move it higher or lower depending on day to day conditions. I also considered that the current July futures will be coming to close in a day or two and that is why I traded in August futures.

Again, given latest situation what would your trade be and exact stop loss?

Last edited by rishig : 29th July 2008 at 10:37 PM.
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  #35  
Old 29th July 2008, 10:50 PM
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No trade as it is too late for me to SHORT!
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  #36  
Old 7th August 2008, 03:00 PM
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man, icici is now close to 720...what is your outlook for this stock and recommendations?
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Old 13th September 2008, 06:32 PM
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If we look overall price of ICICI Bank, at what price it would be good to accumulate at present situation?

Rgds.
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Old 14th September 2008, 02:07 PM
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- Icici broke its pullback Blue Line.
- Note the increase in volume at sell off as compared to previous day!
- There was fast MACD divergence from beginning of this pullback!
- We are heading for lows of JULY (500) or lower!....

I expect this to be last sell off in trend and ICICI will be good pick around 450-500 range!

But expect new highs of around 1000-1200 in at least 2-3 years!

Last edited by man4urheart : 14th September 2008 at 02:10 PM.
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Old 14th September 2008, 02:18 PM
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I expect this to be last sell off in trend and ICICI will be good pick around 450-500 range!
hmmm I wish ICICI bank would come that low too to accumulate some more..
if it comes around 400 then probably Nifty would break 3790 even
Rgds

Last edited by San Yad : 14th September 2008 at 02:20 PM.
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  #40  
Old 16th September 2008, 02:02 PM
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hello

ICICI had 80 millions USD exposure with lehman..

What will be the impact in next days..

Would the stock be hammered?

rgds

Last edited by San Yad : 16th September 2008 at 02:09 PM.
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