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  #1  
Old 16th April 2008, 12:20 PM
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Default Infosys Technologies



Hi All,
Infosys's guidance for next year is 92-94 EPS which looks quite good.
It is probability that company might do acquisition in the range of 200-300 million dollar near term.
So What would be the target for Infosys in the short term and mid term?
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  #2  
Old 16th April 2008, 02:35 PM
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Fibonnaci Up Targets are

23.6% = 1564
Immediate target38.2%= 1724
50% = 1860
Golden mean 61.8% = 1992

It will encounter resistance at

200 EMA = 1684

Yesterday buy was with huge volumes, it is likely possibility it will hit any of those targets.

If there are less bad news from global markets in coming days , I think share will try to reach to 2048/- w.r.t it's EPS growth fundamentally for FY08.

Target for FY09 with 19% EPS growth is 2437/- where it will trade at P/E = 28 at Estimated EPS of 85. This is a bit optimistic target.

If we re-rate the stock back to P/E = 22 at EPS of 85 it is safe to assume target of 2200.

Disclaimer: Sentiment from global markets will play a huge role in this

Last edited by man4urheart : 16th April 2008 at 02:48 PM.
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  #3  
Old 16th April 2008, 04:15 PM
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Technically:

I think the Infosys' stock will touch 200 EMA in the short-term.

Currently, the 200 EMA is at 1670.

If the stock is able to cross 1710, it may go to around 1835 and 1975.

=================================================

FY 2009 eps may come around Rs 96.

Even, if we give an optimistic 20 times forward multiple to Infosys, the price will be around Rs 1920 (20% above current price).

I don't think this (Rs 1600) is the right price to enter for investors.

One may wait for a price around Rs 1350 and maybe Rs 1100.

The growth is surely slowing down for the IT sector. IT companies are looking for geographical diversification, but they will never get the same margins from other regions as they do from US/EU.

I feel the best days for the IT sector are over and one should not expect these stocks to regain their past glory.
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  #4  
Old 16th April 2008, 10:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post
I feel the best days for the IT sector are over and one should not expect these stocks to regain their past glory.
I took the chance to sell TCS for a small profit after Infy's results pulled up the IT sector
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  #5  
Old 16th May 2008, 07:22 PM
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Default Infosys Technologies Ltd

Hi Guys,
Today infosys is down. Anyone know the reason? is it good time to buy or still to come down more?
rgds
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  #6  
Old 2nd June 2008, 12:08 AM
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Default Anybody Holding Infosys- HOLD

Anybody holding this share should now hold it further and don't sell early!

Trend has reversed to bullish!!!



- Price has risen above 200 EMA and 50 EMA.
- 50 Day EMA has crossed over 200 EMA which is bullish confirmation.



Price has broken the downward sloping trend line with increase in volumes and trending in a channel!

PIVOTS

R2 = 1950
R1 = 1889
PIVOT = 1852 (STOP LOSS)
S1 = 1791
S2 = 1754
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  #7  
Old 7th July 2008, 07:27 PM
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Upcoming result on 11 JULY



- It is forming a BULL FLAG.
- Target 2150 , once price breaks barrier of trending slope of BULL FLAG at 1800-1820!
- Price took support at 200 EMA and today it closed above 50 EMA!
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  #8  
Old 11th July 2008, 08:03 PM
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Price today took support at 200 EMA, time to closely watch it! And today's fall was with exceptional Volume!

ADX has not raised it's head above 20, which means no strength yet in fall. Let's see what it tells in coming days?



No View for time being!

Last edited by man4urheart : 11th July 2008 at 08:08 PM.
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  #9  
Old 14th July 2008, 07:13 PM
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The markets have been disappointed with Infosys' results.

More than anything else, the markets are disappointed because the dollar guidance wasn't raised.

(Till two quarters back, the management wasn't really bothered about the economic crisis in US/EU, but the confidence levels have dropped now).

The rupee guidance has been raised to around Rs 100.

I think at current price of Rs 1550, the stock is fairly-valued.

At current levels, it is a "low risk-low return" stock.

I would rather wait for a price around Rs 1360 for a fresh entry.
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  #10  
Old 19th July 2008, 10:34 PM
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- I have drawn the channel, but it is still not confirmed!
- Price will tell more next week!
- Fall below 1300 will change the trend down!
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  #11  
Old 29th July 2008, 08:01 PM
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Default Channel still holding out

- Remember today's Big fall, interesting this script is holding out for now
- Price sticked to channel we draw last week




60 Min Chart



It would be a good buy above 1620 and good sell below 1488

Last edited by man4urheart : 29th July 2008 at 08:03 PM.
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  #12  
Old 29th July 2008, 08:24 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by man4urheart View Post
- Remember today's Big fall, interesting this script is holding out for now
- Price sticked to channel we draw last week




60 Min Chart



It would be a good buy above 1620 and good sell below 1488
Sorry I cud not understand///

You said one should buy at 1620 and sell 1488? isn't it a loss?

or u talking about intraday for today only? Please correct me !

Thanks
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  #13  
Old 29th July 2008, 08:36 PM
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I mean to say

-If in coming days price firmly closes above 1620, it will rise further tp 1700(200 EMA) and is a good buy!

-If in coming days price firmly closes below 1488, it will fall further and is a good SELL opportunity!

(More about playing in Futures perseptive)
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  #14  
Old 24th September 2008, 03:05 PM
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Infosys Chart- Triangle to resolve!

I think we are sitting on a very important decision, which will go long way about how infosys will perform in market!



Watch for breakouts!
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  #15  
Old 2nd December 2008, 03:04 PM
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Since last I posted, the triangle resolved to downside. We made new low 1040

Elliot wave count!

If my count is correct, we should be finishing correction soon!




Confession: This is one script which has proved me wrong most of times. I have stopped trading it! But use it as a learning experience!
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  #16  
Old 5th December 2008, 03:12 PM
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Default Again ... There is nothing like technical Analysis

Hi buddy.

One thing i like to tell you that there is nothing like technical Analysis in situation like today.

one thing i like to tell you. last month i had bought TISCO...

20 share at 174 = 3480
30 share at 157 = 4710

avg of 164

i had sold 20 share on 3rd dec at 166 = 3320
i had sold 30 share on 4th dec at 182 = 5460

avg of 175.6

profit of around 11 X 50 = 550

THIS THING I HAD DONE IN AT LEAST 20 SHARE... LIKE UNITECH, TATA MOTOR, SUZLON, INDIAN HOTEL GMR, HDIL, TCS

the reason behind this i had decided at what price i want to buy share... and i am buying it for delivery and i am getting reward almost every time...

this also bring down cost of my share..

i am first buying share with every decline ... i mean if i bought 50 share at 100 then i am buying 60 share at 85 and even if it dips i am buying around 80 share at 70...

simple. buy higher qty with every decline and sale reverse when share price increase....

believe me there is nothing technical in this world...

when market was 21000 people were talking market will go to 30000... even with 22 PE... all were hopeful.

today with 8-9 PE... people suggesting don't buy... why???

i read about yr comment for NRE coke...

i like to tell you.. fundamentally within 3 yrs it will reach 50 rs...

i like to suggest people ( not for buying but where price will reach )....

i am hoping R com 600 fundamentally

tcs 900

infosys 1800

tisco 450

tata motor 400

within 3 yrs...

now its yr decision want to take risk or not...
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  #17  
Old 1st June 2009, 12:50 PM
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Default Should I sell Infosys?

I have a few infosys shares which I have been holding for a while.

I have seen the stock fall from 2000 levels to below 1000. Now it seems to be at a a good price of 1600.

I don't need this money immediately (2-3 years).
Should I sell?

If I sell, then what where do I put that money, what are good stocks in the long term. Like 2-3 years. Should I opt for mutual funds?
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  #18  
Old 3rd June 2009, 11:07 AM
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Default

I am very surprised at the lack of interest in Infosys. The last chart update was in 2008!

I am fairly certain of a strong resistance at 1720s (50% retracement), but beyond that I do not have any clues. Can somebody please provide with an chart update on this counter.

I usually go with high beta index stocks. But since this stock is always an outperformer in bear markets, I had some shares of Infosys as well. Now that the market is roaring, I wish to bail out of IT and probably get into Nifty. So I am wondering if there is a better opportunity to sell other than 1720.

Quote:
Originally Posted by man4urheart View Post
Since last I posted, the triangle resolved to downside. We made new low 1040

Elliot wave count!

If my count is correct, we should be finishing correction soon!




Confession: This is one script which has proved me wrong most of times. I have stopped trading it! But use it as a learning experience!

Last edited by kkr555 : 3rd June 2009 at 11:10 AM.
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  #19  
Old 16th September 2009, 07:29 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kkr555 View Post
I am very surprised at the lack of interest in Infosys. The last chart update was in 2008!

I am fairly certain of a strong resistance at 1720s (50% retracement), but beyond that I do not have any clues. Can somebody please provide with an chart update on this counter.

I usually go with high beta index stocks. But since this stock is always an outperformer in bear markets, I had some shares of Infosys as well. Now that the market is roaring, I wish to bail out of IT and probably get into Nifty. So I am wondering if there is a better opportunity to sell other than 1720.

This time my Elliot wave count did work!

One thing which is worrying me is that Volumes are not good with rise!



OBV has given a breakout, looks like infy is poised to go higher, but I want to wait for 2400 to be crossed. Also need to see some volume expansion!

Last edited by man4urheart : 16th September 2009 at 07:31 AM.
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  #20  
Old 1st October 2009, 07:57 AM
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This is why I said 2400 is a key level.

You can see the Fibonacci confluence pointing that level as strong resistance.

Fibonacci confluence = From key push ups marked with Fib-1, Fib-2 and Fib-3 you can see that is the only levels where the levels merge!
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  #21  
Old 21st January 2010, 08:56 PM
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What does chart says about Infosys? What can be the short term targets(Next 4 trading days) of Infosys.

I have a CA-2650 of Infosys @15. My maximum loss is 3000. If the Infy can touch 2700 before 28th Jan, I will gain Rs 7000. If it touches 2800, my gain will be 27000. What are the chances that infy can hit 2700 or 2800 by 28th.
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  #22  
Old 21st January 2010, 09:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rajivka View Post
What does chart says about Infosys? What can be the short term targets(Next 4 trading days) of Infosys.

I have a CA-2650 of Infosys @15. My maximum loss is 3000. If the Infy can touch 2700 before 28th Jan, I will gain Rs 7000. If it touches 2800, my gain will be 27000. What are the chances that infy can hit 2700 or 2800 by 28th.
2590-2600 range is important.

If Infosys goes below 2590, it will turn weak.

2550 and 2500 will be the next possible targets.

I don't see much chance of 2700... at least not till expiry.

The markets have turned weak and it is very difficult for large cap stocks to move up in a falling market.
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  #23  
Old 21st January 2010, 10:25 PM
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Thanks for the advice. If I get a chance, I will get out of this in morning and instead buy put option
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  #24  
Old 13th January 2011, 11:08 AM
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Hi all,

Seeing that is stock has few takers from this forum ( last update on this about an year back ! )

Today they have announced results , and stock down 4% , can I buy some?

Thanks
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  #25  
Old 13th January 2011, 02:57 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by chandubs View Post
Hi all,

Seeing that is stock has few takers from this forum ( last update on this about an year back ! )

Today they have announced results , and stock down 4% , can I buy some?

Thanks
Simple answer:-

CMP= 3230.

Expected fy11 eps according to management- 118.

P/e at fy 11 eps- 27.3.

Infosys is a fantastic company with a huge competitive advantage.

Valuations are stretched. It is up to you to decide.
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  #26  
Old 28th February 2011, 09:33 AM
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An American employee of Infosys has filed a case against the company claiming visa and tax fraud. Link.

It will be interesting to see what arguments Infy uses to refute charges.
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  #27  
Old 18th April 2011, 02:19 PM
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Default Is it worth entering for 1 year period?

Hi all,

Is it worth entering Infosys at these levels?

Thanks.
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  #28  
Old 19th August 2011, 09:25 AM
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What's wrong with Infosys?

Any negative news?
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  #29  
Old 19th August 2011, 09:30 AM
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Infosys ADR had dropped 10% yesterday.

Quote:
Most of the Indian stocks trading on American bourses tumbled today, with IT bellwether Infosys declining nearly 10 per cent, as renewed fears about global economic slowdown gripped investors.
Indian ADRs drop amid weak mkt trend; Infy dips about 10% - The Economic Times
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  #30  
Old 19th August 2011, 10:25 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post
Cash minting cow or main bread and butter of the company (USA) came up with 4 lakh people unemployment figure. Hence outsourcing companies will see more blood. As to reduce unemployment more stricter rules or taxes will be applied so locals get chance.
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  #31  
Old 19th October 2011, 05:07 PM
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Infosys currently trading at 2727 with a dividend of Rs.15 per share, the record date being tomorrow (20th Oct 2011), what are your views on this stock? If I sell my shares on the record date will I get the dividend?
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  #32  
Old 12th January 2012, 08:07 PM
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Default Infosys Results

Infosys says business sentiment worst since November. Cuts guidance for FY12 due to Europe Crisis.

Quote:
"India is slowing down. We are talking about seven per cent (GDP) growth (for 2011-12) when the potential to grow is 12 to 13 per cent,"Chief Financial Officer V Balakrishnan added.

"The global economy, driven by slower growth in developed markets coupled with the European crisis, could impact the growth of the IT industry," Infosys Chief Executive S. D. Shibulal said
Infosys says there is some kind of 'inertia' within govt - The Economic Times
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  #33  
Old 12th January 2012, 10:29 PM
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Obvious Germany is on brink of recession. Growth figure went from 3.7% to 3%. Infy main market being euro.

European union will lose Euro power.

And the dollar is not strong but Euro is in deathbed. And in few years even dollar too will fall.
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  #34  
Old 13th January 2012, 11:21 AM
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For clarification on Germany's GDP figures, please see the article:

Quote:
Germany's GDP increased 3.0% in 2011, which was right in line with economists' expectations.

However, this is was a major slow down from the 3.7% growth Europe's largest economy saw in 2010.

Also, GDP fell by 0.25% quarter-over-quarter in Q4.
Germany's GDP Growth Slowed to 3.0% In 2011, Contracted In Q4 - Business Insider
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  #35  
Old 14th April 2012, 09:46 AM
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http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/13/us...t-his-work.htm

Infosys Visa Fraud investigation.

Don't think much will happen though - probably just a slap on the wrist and minor fine. The Indian companies spend a lot on US Politicians.
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Old 14th April 2012, 11:13 AM
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Default Infosys

Infosys has given very conservative growth estimates. Apart from slowdown in China and India GDP, overall the world economy is in better shape than last year. Also the rupee is weak so exports should be more profitable. Demand should also improve in next quarter as per Nasscom.
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Old 14th April 2012, 01:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raghav View Post
Infosys has given very conservative growth estimates. Apart from slowdown in China and India GDP, overall the world economy is in better shape than last year. Also the rupee is weak so exports should be more profitable. Demand should also improve in next quarter as per Nasscom.
On contrary NASSCOM now saying after tcs ,wipro numbers they will look to see whether their guidance was correct or need to change.

I feel this all bailouts delay have caused this recession effect to last long. Else by 2012 all this bad news would have settled but now I don't see all getting settled before 2014.

Now Spain numbers are a big worry and this time a bailout may cause Germany to be out of Eurozone. Matters haven't been settled but just delayed and now this effect is seen.

Lehman crash was rightly done so that others could be saved. They didn't allowed Portugal economy to collapse, then they delayed Greece now it's Spain and their number is too big to settle.They should have allowed earlier collapse.
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  #38  
Old 24th July 2012, 01:21 AM
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Any update on Infy now? It's like going down day by day. Any thought about it?
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Old 21st August 2012, 06:48 AM
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Infosys won the case against Jack Palmer:

Quote:
US district judge Myron H Thompson found no basis to support any of the charges filed by Jack "Jay" Palmer and dismissed the case entirely.

US district judge Myron H Thompson found no basis to support any of the charges filed by Jack "Jay" Palmer and dismissed the case entirely.

Software major Infosys won a harassment case filed by its employee Jack Palmer, after a US Judge dismissed his claims and threw out the case on Monday.
The visa fraud investigation is still going on:

Quote:
The verdict will come as a big shot in the arm for Infosys, which is also facing a Grand Jury investigation in the US over alleged misuse of B1 visas.
Infosys wins harassment case filed by its employee Jay Palmer in US - The Economic Times
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  #40  
Old 15th October 2012, 01:55 PM
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Default Analyzing results for Infy

Quote:
Infosys results, outlook disappoint - Money - DNA

"Remarkably, the numbers were down in spite of the fact that the recent Lodestone acquisition was not being factored in in the results. “The acquisition of Lodestone will be completed within a week, and the numbers for the same will be factored into this (third) quarter,” said S D Shibulal, CEO and MD. This might mean a further dip in Infy’s earnings in Q3. "
I'd like to understand this, Lodestone acquisition, is supposed to bring the revenues up (revenue from SAP projects are booming). How would it mean further dip in Infy's earnings ? Would the earnings from Lodestone not bring credit to Infosys ?

PS: I'm not a finance expert, Please bear with me if the query sounds stupid.
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