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oceanic 20th July 2007 07:47 PM

Reliance Communications
 
Hi all,

Its nice to be here at this very informative blog site. I wanted to know about Reliance Communications stock. Is this a good buy at its current levels of 570-590?

sdinvest 22nd January 2008 01:31 PM

Reliance Communications
 
Hi
Want advise on what to do with RCOM. Bought 30 shares at 500 in today's fall. Now trading at 540. Should i hold this or another great fall will happen in 2-3 days. What should i do?

Alchemist 22nd January 2008 02:06 PM

Technically, I think the stock will bounce back and may try to touch 200 EMA again.

The 200 day EMA is around 618 right now.

You can expect Rs 580 - Rs 600 in coming days.

aka_iitd 22nd January 2008 02:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alchemist (Post 5011)
Technically, I think the stock will bounce back and may try to touch 200 EMA again.

The 200 day EMA is around 618 right now.

You can expect Rs 580 - Rs 600 in coming days.

I think it is good stock and will give good returns once they enter in full swing in GSM market :D

ranji 4th February 2008 02:05 PM

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...ow/2754105.cms

Quote:

Bankers close to the development said RTIL will sell nearly 10% of its post-issue share capital through the IPO which will put its valuation more than double of what it achieved in July when it privately placed 5% stake to a group of institutional investors. RTIL, a 95% subsidiary of Reliance Communications (RCOM), sold the stake for Rs 1,400 crore to a host of investors including George Soros, HSBC, Fortress Capital, New Silk, Galleon, DA Capital and GLG Capital in a deal which had put its valuation at Rs 27,000 crore.

Going by the IPO size, the equity valuation of RTIL, a company engaged in the business of building, owning and operating communications towers, will be around Rs 50,000-60,000 crore. This will translate into nearly Rs 250-300 per RCOM share. The RCOM stock closed at Rs 612.15 on Friday on the BSE. When contacted, a spokesperson for the group declined to comment.
Will the Reliance Telecom Infrastructure IPO benefit Reliance communications just like Reliance Power IPO did for Reliance energy ? If we consider half of 250-300, RCOM should go up around Rs. 125. So is RCOM a buy at current levels ?

jayZ 9th February 2008 03:19 PM

hold till when?
 
i had brought Rcom on thursday (7th feb) 15 shares @ 655/- . nw it is down to 645 odd. what can be the target and the duration of hold
Plz adivce!
Thanks

YESHWANT 9th February 2008 05:44 PM

Rel Com
 
Hi,

I have purchased 75 shares @ 540 of rel com, and want to hold it for one year.

what will be est. price and benefit after one year.

should i hold it for such long time or .... please advise.

Best Regards,
yeshwant




Quote:

Originally Posted by Alchemist (Post 5011)
Technically, I think the stock will bounce back and may try to touch 200 EMA again.

The 200 day EMA is around 618 right now.

You can expect Rs 580 - Rs 600 in coming days.


namehta 13th February 2008 05:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by YESHWANT (Post 5873)
Hi,

I have purchased 75 shares @ 540 of rel com, and want to hold it for one year.

what will be est. price and benefit after one year.

should i hold it for such long time or .... please advise.

Best Regards,
yeshwant

IMO, You can expect 650-700.

rookie_gau 13th February 2008 06:02 PM

Will this stock go the same way as Reliance Energy ltd. went before RPower?

Or this won't happen because of RPower going kaput??

People have been saying that RCOM valuations account for 150-200 Rs for each share of R Infra.

Alchemist 13th February 2008 06:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rookie_gau (Post 6048)


People have been saying that RCOM valuations account for 150-200 Rs for each share of R Infra.

I think Anil Ambani will have to price his Reliance Infratel IPO lower than what was earlier decided.

Rs 6000 crore is a big number. It is not going to easy to regain investor's confidence now.

If Reliance Infratel's stake is worth Rs 150 per share of Reliance Communications, then one cannot add more than Rs 75 to Reliance Communications' share.

Many analysts are now skeptical about the valuations that this tower business will get. I will not add more than Rs 30 - Rs 50 to Reliance Communication's share price for its stake in Reliance Infratel.

==========================================

Lets take Reliance Energy's example.

The stock is trading at Rs 1555.

Reliance Power is trading at 350 with 226 crore shares outstanding. This means a market value of Rs 79100 crore.

45% of this Rs 79100 crore is Rs 35595 crore. This is value of REL's stake in Reliance Power.

As of today REL has 23.65 crore shares outstanding.

This means value of Reliance Power per share of REL = Rs 1505.

and REL is trading at Rs 1555.

Markets are adding less Rs 500 to REL's share for its Rs 1500 stake in Reliance Power....a 66% holding company discount.

sandeepyeola 13th February 2008 08:53 PM

2008 war ?
 
hi
Is it the war between 2 ambanis??????
becz..today .. all stocks of AA are in RED.. and of MA all stocks except rpl in green....
whats the opinion...
i am holding rcom @ 619.. what to do????

thanx...
sandee..

maverick 14th February 2008 12:54 AM

is it time to buy RComm?

It's been going down for 4 sessions. scrip looks a bit confused to me. Not in a definite trend. Should we wait for some more time.

Any comments?

pateln07 14th February 2008 10:26 AM

R Com
 
Dear friends,

Valuation and earning are the main thing to buy any share. Before a month people are happy to take R COM at 850 level then why worrying at 550 level ??

The things is see around you, RCOM is fastest growing communication provider,. forget mobile only, its in data transferring and internet business also. flag telecoms, is of ADAG.. and in many other countries r com is buying mobile companies..

if u see the profitability and price increase for r com then in may 2006 it was around 250.. and now its around 550.. so its just 120 % growth in around 1.6 year.. so yearly growth of 50%, against this other shares are increase 10 times and still people are buying it then why not r com ?

r com got license for GSM business,, he will lowest cost provider, they had good cash flow from the business.. and forget about infratel right now.. just consider its penetration and growth.. AIRTEL enter in market in 1997 around and they charged very high and cover their cost in first 5 yrs of their business.. r com entered in market around 2002 but still they are performing better..

tower technology and capacity of r com tower is better then airtel, idea, and vodafone.. because they are using technology of 2003-2008 where other had older tower of 1997-2008, the per tower number of calls are highest for r com..

r com is individual network provider u go any state and they will earn... they no need to pay money to other supplier.. for ex. in HP there is no vodafone network and they are using airtel service.. so they have to pay to airtel.. this will cut yr margin.. where reliance no need such things..

in nut shell.. r com should be in yr portfolio. i had 50 rcom at avg of 395 rs..

Alchemist 17th February 2008 07:45 PM

Reliance Communications and Bharti Airtel seem like the most promising telecom stocks to me.

Growth in telecom sector is slowing down and a few years from now, we may see serious consolidation.

Smaller players will see the margins getting squeezed hard and will have no option but to sell-out.

Reliance Communications has a many positive developments coming its way:

-Nationwide GSM expansion.
-Reliance Infratel IPO and value unlocking.
-FLAG Telecom IPO and value unlocking.
-Broadband growth.
-DTH and IPTV (Internet Protocol Television) rollout etc.

However, as of now, I do not see much value being added from the above developments....at least not for next 1-2 years.

GSM,DTH already have a lot of competition and it will not be easy to increase market shares in these segments.

Reliance Energy has not really benefited from the listing of Reliance Power. The same may be the case for Reliance Communications too.

Thus,as of now, it is better to rely only on earnings for evaluating Reliance Communications.

Earnings growth seems to be good

FY 2008 expected eps = Rs 26.
FY 2009 expected eps = Rs 31. (19.2% YoY growth).
FY 2010 expected eps = Rs 36. (16.2% YoY growth).

Being the largest telecom player in India, Reliance Communications will enjoy a premium valuation over its rivals.

If I give a 20 forward PE to it, the stock can be expected to be around Rs 720 by April 2009.

It is a good buy and may be a good investment for the long-term, but I would prefer a lower price in the 510-560 range.

pateln07 18th February 2008 10:13 AM

r coM
 
One more thing i will like to address you,

Asset valuation of Airtel is 19000 Cr where is reliance communication has 35000. This is also a good parameter to analysis. Because now Airtel will not get much depreciation benefit which r com will get.

higher the depreciation mean lower tax.. Anil Ambani had much broader vision. So we can give 30-40% add in EPS derived value. so i will put 1200 Rs for R Com in april 2009. Because vision is some thing that is beyond analysis and this is with this dhirubhai ambani's son had....

rishig 1st July 2008 05:41 PM

Alchemist: Since, RComm has slipped below 400 now, do you think one should enter into this stock? If not, again what is the entering price?

Alchemist 1st July 2008 08:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rishig (Post 8970)
Alchemist: Since, RComm has slipped below 400 now, do you think one should enter into this stock? If not, again what is the entering price?

Reliance Communications achieved an eps of Rs 25 in FY 2008.

As of now,

FY 2009 eps estimate is around Rs 30. (current year).
FY 2010 eps estimate is around Rs 36. (forward)

(All the above eps figures are the consolidated eps figures).

The stock at Rs 396 isn't expensive at all.

However, the downward momentum in the market is such that everything is being sold-off.

Once FY 2009 Q1 results are announced, many eps downgrades are expected. Reliance Communications may also be one of them.

Still even in worst case, I don't expect FY 2010 eps to be less than Rs 30.

The valuations are already slightly attractive, but I would prefer to wait for the Q1 (April-June 2008) results and see if the earnings growth is maintained or not.

abcefgh 1st July 2008 09:46 PM

@alchemist,

am i mistaken,
i find that FY08 eps of rcom to be 12.53 everywhere, but you have mentioned it to be double the above value i.e 25..

San Yad 2nd July 2008 06:40 AM

Is there any date for fixed for Q1 (April-June 2008) results for Rcom?
rgds

Alchemist 2nd July 2008 07:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by abcefgh (Post 8979)
@alchemist,

am i mistaken,
i find that FY08 eps of rcom to be 12.53 everywhere, but you have mentioned it to be double the above value i.e 25..

I already mentioned it in my post....Rs 25 is the consolidated eps figure.

Rs 12.53 is the standalone eps figure.

Consolidated eps includes the earnings from the company's subsidiaries.

Quote:

Originally Posted by sanyad74 (Post 8987)
Is there any date for fixed for Q1 (April-June 2008) results for Rcom?
rgds

I couldn't find the date. Maybe it hasn't been announced yet.

San Yad 3rd July 2008 07:14 AM

Possibly when it might be? I mean in which month?

rgds.

Alchemist 3rd July 2008 07:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sanyad74 (Post 8998)
Possibly when it might be? I mean in which month?

rgds.

The results may be declared in late July or early August.

man4urheart 20th July 2008 12:24 PM

MTN Merger is called off, is it good for RCOMM or Bad?

Alchemist 20th July 2008 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by man4urheart (Post 9216)
MTN Merger is called off, is it good for RCOMM or Bad?

I would say it is neutral.

(Many believe that it is a positive development).

Africa isn't exactly a fast growing market.

Unless the MTN acquisition/merger was done at an attractive price, it wouldn't have brought much benefits to Reliance Communications.

pramodmishra86 1st August 2008 04:08 PM

hi,

is Reliance Communications good at 436?

abcefgh 1st August 2008 11:11 PM

@alchemist

Q1 - FY09 Results

Negative side:
Standalone Profit fell by around 58% yoy.

Positive side:
Consolidated PAT went up by 23.90% yoy.
(this being achieved even after showing weak standalone result this quarter)
Though consolidated earnings met the expectations, consolidated revenues were below expectations.

What would you infer about the present valuation(CMP Rs. 437) of this stock based on the results?

In one of your previous posts you have expected FY09 growth to be 19.2%
And this quarter consolidated growth is above expectation.
Still, why did stock market react so harshly to its standalone result?

onlymuks 2nd August 2008 11:02 AM

Can anyone really throw some light on why RCom was battered so brutally yesterday?

man4urheart 2nd August 2008 01:08 PM

Read the RCOM story here

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/...0251851500.htm

Alchemist 4th August 2008 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by abcefgh (Post 9418)

In one of your previous posts you have expected FY09 growth to be 19.2%
And this quarter consolidated growth is above expectation.
Still, why did stock market react so harshly to its standalone result?

Quote:

Originally Posted by onlymuks (Post 9423)
Can anyone really throw some light on why RCom was battered so brutally yesterday?

Market doesn't move on my expectations.

Market was expecting better results and it was disappointed.

Market was expecting around Rs 1550 crore of consolidated profits and all it got was Rs 1512 crore.

Also other metrics like ARPU (average revenue per user) were poor.

Hence the sell-off.

=============================================

Bear markets really hate bad results.

In bull markets, people think "next quarter will be better" and even bad results are ignored.

However, in bear markets, people think "next quarter will be worse" and all below-expectation results are punished.

=============================================

With 206.4 crore shares oustanding, the Q1 consolidated eps works out to be Rs 7.33.

An eps of Rs 30 for FY 2009 seems achievable.

The stock offers good value at Rs 440 and can give 25% returns over next few years.

Note: If we again to into a bear phase, the stock will go down further.

Bears don't care about valuations - they just want to sell..:D.

paran 4th August 2008 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alchemist (Post 9437)
The stock offers good value at Rs 440 and can give 25% returns over next few years.

Is it typo or do you mean it? "25% return over next few years".

Alchemist 5th August 2008 10:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by paran (Post 9439)
Is it typo or do you mean it? "25% return over next few years".

I meant annualized return...:o.

San Yad 5th August 2008 12:52 PM

Is this stock made bottom at 438? As I see its not coming down?
So should we consider that this will head towards 460 trend...?
Or should watch for some more days before entering >
Any suggestion !!!

abcefgh 5th August 2008 07:53 PM

Well, all the time while RCom stayed above 438, the market hasn't shown much bearish signals.

What we haven't seen after the Rcom's results' bloodbath is, 'how RCom reacts to bears'.

As the market has significantly moved up from its lows. I expect to see selling pressure building up.

So, its wait and watch for RCom.

But, long term view doesn't change with short term market manipulations.

MITHUN 1st September 2008 06:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MITHUN (Post 9802)
Dear Sir,

Sir For Long Term Investment, Should We Go For 'a' Category Shares Or Can We Go For Any Category. Pls Give 5 - 6 Good Scrips Within Rs 200. And Pls Comment On Tat Stock.

AND PLS COMMENT ON ADORFO, VOLTAS, TATAMETALI, TNPL. CAN I ALSO GO FOR THESE OR NOT.

San Yad 1st September 2008 06:56 PM

Hi,

What chart says about reliance communications?

at what level it would be bearish?

I see its downfall more than market.

man4urheart 1st September 2008 08:19 PM

RELCOM



- Price is near key point and should be closely watched about whether it breaks the earlier low or not!
- RSI is still not in oversold zone another signal there is still some room to go further down!
- 50 and 200 EMA looks in one of the most bearish orientation!

raj1980 26th September 2008 11:37 AM

Why is Rcom falling everyday,any hidden bad news for this stock that I don't know of? :confused::confused::confused:.

Alchemist 26th September 2008 02:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raj1980 (Post 10383)
Why is Rcom falling everyday,any hidden bad news for this stock that I don't know of? :confused::confused::confused:.

We are in a bear market....;).

See post #28.

Quote:

Note: If we again to into a bear phase, the stock will go down further.

Bears don't care about valuations - they just want to sell.

sdinvest 10th October 2008 08:32 PM

Can any one explain me what is happening to this stock? RCOM is falling like anything; 20% today!! Any problem the company is facing or it is the result of the global happenings?

njrfrens 4th January 2009 12:27 AM

Considering the RCOM's entry into GSM, Is this stock at best buy price right now?


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