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  #41  
Old 4th January 2009, 05:14 PM
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- If we break above 264, we can target 382
- 200 EMA sits near 372, so looks quite achievable!
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  #42  
Old 5th January 2009, 03:02 PM
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As per chart, 264 broken today!

now are we looking at 382 level?

But that seems like long way to go as nifty crossed 3110 in last half an hr trader after struggling whole day?

Is it safe to enter now, keeping 382 in mind?

What is your opinion now?

Happy and safe trading!

Last edited by San Yad : 5th January 2009 at 03:06 PM.
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  #43  
Old 7th January 2009, 12:21 AM
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Talking

Quote:
Originally Posted by sanyad74 View Post
As per chart, 264 broken today!

now are we looking at 382 level?

But that seems like long way to go as nifty crossed 3110 in last half an hr trader after struggling whole day?

Is it safe to enter now, keeping 382 in mind?

What is your opinion now?

Happy and safe trading!
Breakout didn't happen we reversed before that

I think I made a mistake in writing, breakout is when you clear last resistance, which means a entry in square of 268 would have been a clear breakout! This further implies the breakout was 268




Do you see the new O's getting added to chart thus no breakout?

Until we clear 268 we are not set for that target!

Last edited by man4urheart : 7th January 2009 at 12:30 AM.
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  #44  
Old 27th February 2009, 12:07 PM
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Default DoT wants audit report on RCom in 3 months

DoT wants audit report on RCom in 3 months.

Is that a reason this stock is brought to this level? or still downward direction is expected in the stock price?

Though it is there for some time I noticed recently. .

Quote:
RCom was put under DoT’s scanner after it was pointed by a report from Kotak Institutional Equities Research that the company was reporting one set of numbers to the regulator, and another to the stock exchanges.
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/...2750870400.htm
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  #45  
Old 28th February 2009, 09:06 PM
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RCOM is a good buy with 3% stop-loss below 147, if this support holds..... you can target 272 if 184 is cleared.

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  #46  
Old 10th April 2009, 09:34 AM
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Hi Man,

What does the technicals say from this level? Target 272 or 184??
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  #47  
Old 17th April 2009, 08:41 AM
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Interesting read:

Analysts express concern on R-Comm's accounting policies.

Quote:
Even though Reliance Communications' quarterly additions brought cheer to the street, analysts are still grappling with the below the line accounting practice that R-Comm follows for its consolidated accounts. Over the last three quarters, analysts have been raising questions seeking clarity on the financial charges on its consolidated financials. The concern is the alleged mismatch in its financial charges in its standalone and consolidated numbers.
Quote:
Analysts are finding it difficult to understand how a company could earn interest income when its net debt rose by Rs 3400 crore to Rs 18,600 crore in Q3.
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  #48  
Old 30th May 2009, 11:05 PM
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Default DARK SIDE of RCOM

I stumbled upon a nice article on RCOM from Outlook Profit Magazine!

It was interesting to read the story and some key facts emerged form there
  • It sets it own standards from time to time as need arises..
  • Lower depreciation rate as compared to peers giving it inflated Profitability.
  • It reported 5908 crore of profit while actually it has loss of 91 crore. How it did that? It logged 4500 crore of FOREX losses to carrying cost of fixed assets, due to postponement of AS 11 to year 2011. It also didn't provide for 1470 crore losses on FCCB's.
  • Basically it is reporting wrong numbers!
  • It is reporting different numbers to TRAI.

GSM Entry?

It is a fuss pataka! or Damp Squid
  1. Despite Offering free time in march, number of usage per subscriber and Average revenue dipped.
  2. This all happened in spite of having record numbers of addition in history
  3. RCOm has been allotted spectrum of 1800 MHZ where as BHARTI and HUTCH operate at 900 MHZ.
  4. The big disadvantage at 1800Mhz is that you need double number of towers as compared to what is required at 900MHZ.
  5. This means CAPEX cycle is not ending and still it wants everybody to believe they are ending the cycle.
  6. They planned 62000 rowers in FY09 and 70000 by FY2010, but currently has 48000 towers whereas IDEA has 44000 towers already for just 14 circle
  7. GSM story is also hinged with RELIANCE INFRATEL , a subsidiary, from where money is suppose to come from IPO of same selling 10% stake. This didn't happen due to market conditions...where in world all the money for new towers gonna come in from??
Bottom line it is in a big mess run by a HARVARD graduate!.

Last edited by man4urheart : 30th May 2009 at 11:08 PM.
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  #49  
Old 31st May 2009, 06:31 AM
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Same AS11 problem for reliance industries also.But they managed to over come...Likewise these man also might do some magic...
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  #50  
Old 31st May 2009, 09:56 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by man4urheart View Post
....where in world all the money ... gonna come in from??
...
There's also a lot of "wonderment" about how Anil Ambani's companies are bagging so many contracts of various types by being the lowest bidder or offering the easiest terms.
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  #51  
Old 19th June 2009, 01:17 PM
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reliance communication also have the gap around 240 to 260 as like Reliance industries..

If RIL come in its gap ( e.g. ~Rs. 1900) then is it possible that Rcom also come to fill its gap ? or it may go more down side..

At this price Rcom and RIL I don't think are good to enter on market dip also?

Tata com is another stock that gives -ve buying too.

What is your opinion?
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  #52  
Old 28th August 2009, 11:22 AM
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Reliance Communications is currently around 260. Can anyone please provide a medium term outlook for it? Is it a good time to average?

Thanks!
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  #53  
Old 28th August 2009, 11:28 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jatanr View Post
Reliance Communications is currently around 260. Can anyone please provide a medium term outlook for it? Is it a good time to average?

Thanks!
Not a good time to enter... it went down to Rs 240 and have not broken support of Rs 232. That was the time to enter.

On upside, Rs. 270 is first resistance and then 295. if it closes above Rs. 300 then only I am be bullish on this counter.

Currently it not so much attractive.
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  #54  
Old 28th August 2009, 12:03 PM
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Thanks Sanyad for the quick response. What is the medium term outlook. Actually, let me be more specific. I had bought 20 of this around a year back at around 480! Do not feel like selling it at such a deep loss so wanted to average a bit and sell with at least some profit overall.

Thanks.
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  #55  
Old 28th August 2009, 12:05 PM
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Frankly... after Reliance Power's IPO, I do not have much trust on the Reliance group of companies... especially the ADAG group. Except for Reliance Industries, I want to get rid of all the other counters I have. Hence the above question.

Thanks.
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  #56  
Old 28th August 2009, 12:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jatanr View Post
Thanks Sanyad for the quick response. What is the medium term outlook. Actually, let me be more specific. I had bought 20 of this around a year back at around 480! Do not feel like selling it at such a deep loss so wanted to average a bit and sell with at least some profit overall.

Thanks.
I suggest don't average at this price. If you really want to average then wait for the price of around Rs.240. (this is in case when nifty will not be able to break its immediate resistance level and stats downtrend).

As I mentioned you should keep stoploss at Rs.232 in mind.

If it closes below 230 then it's time to exit and wait and take fresh entry around Rs 180 with the same amount.

On the other hand, upside move I have already mentioned in my last post.

Last edited by San Yad : 28th August 2009 at 01:01 PM.
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  #57  
Old 28th August 2009, 04:30 PM
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Thanks sanyad for the detailed info!
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  #58  
Old 31st August 2009, 09:50 AM
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I am surprised by the poor performance of Reliance Communications.

The stock (CMP 265) is nowhere near it's January 2008 high of 845.

Bharti's January 2008 high was 575 and it is already at 435.

Reliance Communications hasn't even managed to stay above 200 EMA (red ribbon) or 50 EMA (green ribbon).

A better price to average would be around 225.

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  #59  
Old 2nd September 2009, 07:49 PM
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Surprise......

just 2 days after the earlier post, Reliance Communications is actually showing strength.

It is resting right at the 200 EMA.

For the last 2 days, it has managed to close in positive territory in spite to markets going down.

If it can cross 280 tomorrow, it may be headed for 300....maybe even higher levels.

Also, keep an eye on other ADAG stocks like Reliance Capital and RNRL.

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  #60  
Old 3rd September 2009, 11:58 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post
Surprise......

just 2 days after the earlier post, Reliance Communications is actually showing strength.
I read in BS that ADAG is planning to go ahead with REL Infratel. May be this could be a reason for the recent strength of the script.
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  #61  
Old 3rd September 2009, 02:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post
Surprise......

just 2 days after the earlier post, Reliance Communications is actually showing strength.

It is resting right at the 200 EMA.
Aah... Wish I had bought it earlier
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post
For the last 2 days, it has managed to close in positive territory in spite to markets going down.

If it can cross 280 tomorrow, it may be headed for 300....maybe even higher levels.
It is around 293 right now!
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  #62  
Old 28th September 2009, 09:11 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post
I am surprised by the poor performance of Reliance Communications.

The stock (CMP 265) is nowhere near it's January 2008 high of 845.

Bharti's January 2008 high was 575 and it is already at 435.

Reliance Communications hasn't even managed to stay above 200 EMA (red ribbon) or 50 EMA (green ribbon).

A better price to average would be around 225.
If we have a long term view (say 2~3yrs from now) is it good to accumulate in small quantities even at this level? Fundamentally is the current price reasonable? or is it better to wait for some lower level?
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  #63  
Old 28th September 2009, 09:58 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by paran View Post
If we have a long term view (say 2~3yrs from now) is it good to accumulate in small quantities even at this level? Fundamentally is the current price reasonable? or is it better to wait for some lower level?
Looking at the present market scenario, you should invest 50% of your amount that you might to invest in this counter at around Rs 265 and rest 50% at around Rs 240.

So your average price will be around Rs. 250 which might give you better return in 2 years horizon.

Long term prospective person should get lower levels not the higher price.
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  #64  
Old 29th September 2009, 07:35 AM
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- IF the trendline 5 -b holds we can target c the upper end of channel!
- On long term basis a down wave C (with pink background) is still to open!
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  #65  
Old 12th October 2009, 06:03 PM
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A government appointed auditor has found lot of manipulated numbers in accounts of Reliance Communications.

I am surprised that the market hardly reacted to the news.

It seemed as if the markets had already been expecting it.

Quote:
The special audit committee report that has been submitted to the DoT found that for FY'08 actual wireless revenue earned by the company was only Rs 12,298 crore as against Rs 15,213 crore reported to the shareholders, which is an over reporting of Rs 2,915 crore.

It also found that RCom evaded licence fee and spectrum fee to the tune of Rs 315 crore.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...ow/5115907.cms
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  #66  
Old 12th October 2009, 06:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post

I am surprised that the market hardly reacted to the news.
Because: Saab Chalta hia...
"Mera bharat Mahan".......... Jia ho...
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  #67  
Old 12th October 2009, 06:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sanyad74 View Post
Because: Saab Chalta hia...
"Mera bharat Mahan".......... Jia ho...
I am not sure if this audit also covered the consolidated accounts.

earlier, analysts had raised questions on figures reported in consolidated accounts of Reliance Communications.

see post #47.
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  #68  
Old 13th October 2009, 01:21 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by man4urheart View Post
- On long term basis a down wave C (with pink background) is still to open!
can you please help me locate this? I don't see it.
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  #69  
Old 13th October 2009, 08:18 AM
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Reliance Communications is one of the rare large cap stocks that is trading below its book value.

It shows how much faith the public has in this company.....

The book value (according to accounts prepared by the company) is Rs 250 and current market price is around Rs 247.
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  #70  
Old 21st November 2009, 02:37 PM
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Hi Alchemist,

What do u say now, is it worth buying RCOM at this level?

Pramod Mishra
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  #71  
Old 21st November 2009, 05:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pramodmishra86 View Post
Hi Alchemist,

What do u say now, is it worth buying RCOM at this level?

Pramod Mishra
there may be more downside.

technically, the stock is still very weak.

the entire sector is under tremendous pressure.

Rs 19 fee for number portability is more bad news for the industry.

Quote:
India will introduce mobile number portability on December 31, a move that could further intensify the stiff competition in the world's fastest-growing wireless market and push call charges lower.

The regulator also notified certain charges associated with MNP and said switching charges for users must not exceed Rs 19. However, operators are free to levy any amount less than or equal to this charge.
Source.
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  #72  
Old 21st November 2009, 07:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by InverstorB View Post
can you please help me locate this? I don't see it.




Wave c shown!
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  #73  
Old 21st November 2009, 08:34 PM
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After jan 2010 few mobile company stock might run from current levels much once more customer switch to them... I bet for reliance and airtel to lead..
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  #74  
Old 22nd November 2009, 10:21 AM
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Going through the balance sheet of Reliance Communications, I noticed one thing.

The net worth of the company increased sharply from 24840 crore in FY 2008 to 51690 crore in FY 2009.

(Book value is calculated from net worth and this was also a doubling of book value in one single financial year).

Obviously, this increase in net worth wasn't because of capital infusion or retained profits.

The increase actually came from merger of Reliance Gateway Net Limited, a 100% subsidiary of Reliance Communications with Reliance Communications.

This is what the annual report states:

Quote:
5 Schemes of Amalgamation and Arrangement

(i) Pursuant to the Scheme of Amalgamation (“the Scheme”) under Sections 391 to 394 of the Companies Act, 1956 sanctioned by the Hon’ble High Court of Bombay vide Order dated 3rd July, 2009 and filed with the Registrar of Companies (RoC) on 13th July, 2009, Reliance Gateway Net Limited (“RGNL”), a Wholly Owned Subsidiary of the Company, engaged in telecommunication allied activities and as a holding company for all the offshore Investments of the Company, has been amalgamated into the Company with effect from the Appointed Date as 31st March, 2009.

Upon the Scheme becoming effective;

(a) All the assets and liabilities as appearing in the books of RGNL as on the Appointed Date have been recorded at their respective fair values by the Company.

(b) Excess of Rs. 16,428.48 crore arising on such transfer of assets and liabilities, before making the adjustments, in accordance with the Scheme, for cancellation of investments of Rs. 2,096.43 crore (including Equity Shares of Rs. 977.00 crore acquired on conversion of loan) in RGNL and net effect on fair valuation of assets and liabilities of the Company identified by the Board as prescribed to be fair valued, based on market approach/ depreciated replacement cost basis by an independent valuer, for this purpose (“Identified Assets”) of Rs. 12,698.81 crore has been credited to General Reserve, to be dealt with in accordance with the Scheme.Had the Scheme not prescribed this treatment, Rs. 14,332.05 crore would have been credited to Capital Reserve as required by the Purchase Method prescribed by Accounting Standard (“AS”) 14 on “Accounting for Amalgamation“ and General Reserve would have been lower by Rs. 12,698.81 crore.
16428.48 + 12698.81 - 2096.43 = 27030.86

The net worth went up by 27030.86 crore because of this merger.

Thus, more than half of Reliance Communications' book value is made up from assets that came from RGNL.

I couldn't find much information about RGNL's operations/financials and thus wouldn't comment on this "increase in net worth" for Reliance Communications.

Reliance Communications is trading much below its stated book value and it is possible that there are investors in the market who believe that the real net worth (book value) of Reliance Communications is actually lower that that stated by the accounts of the company.
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  #75  
Old 22nd November 2009, 11:33 AM
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Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post
Reliance Communications is trading much below its stated book value and it is possible that there are investors in the market who believe that the real net worth (book value) of Reliance Communications is actually lower that that stated by the accounts of the company.
What else can you expect from the ADAG group? The same group who fooled innocent investors with the Reliance Power IPO. I agree that the investor himself has to do due diligence before investing in any company... but I feel that ADAG didn't exactly do right by using the Reliance name to mislead people in the Rel Power IPO.

PS. These are just my personal thoughts.
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  #76  
Old 28th May 2010, 08:37 PM
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Is RCom so bad to buy even at these level? No body in our forum seems to be interested in this. Somehow I got struck/attached to this.

If the market is convinced about RCom's book value then the share price should be much higher than the current value. I only hope it's correct.

Also hope that apart from book value they don't have other hidden problems.
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  #77  
Old 29th May 2010, 07:13 AM
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Nothing has changed for telecom sector.

In my opinion, one should exit on each rally as like seen in Rcom yesterday.

If you really want to keep this stock in your portfolio then you should consider to accumulate around 200-225 level.
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  #78  
Old 29th May 2010, 07:54 AM
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Originally Posted by paran View Post
Is RCom so bad to buy even at these level? No body in our forum seems to be interested in this. Somehow I got struck/attached to this.

If the market is convinced about RCom's book value then the share price should be much higher than the current value. I only hope it's correct.

Also hope that apart from book value they don't have other hidden problems.
See post #74.

If the book value figure is correct, then Reliance Communications has a very poor "Return on Equity".

A stock is not valued by historical cost of assets (book value), but on basis of the returns generated by these assets and returns expected in future.

The telecom sector is under a lot of pressure and FY 2011 earnings are expected to be lower that FY 2010 earnings.

Also, the companies have paid a very high price for the 3G spectrum and their 3G services may not break even before 3-4 years.

No one really knows for how long this tariff war is going to last.

The valuations in the sector are no longer expensive, but, unless telecom rates begin to go up again, the stocks in this sector are unlikely to make any significant move on the upside.
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  #79  
Old 2nd June 2010, 07:14 AM
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There's news of Etisalat buying stake in RCOM.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...ow/6001211.cms

Where's this counter headed now?
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  #80  
Old 2nd June 2010, 07:22 AM
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Originally Posted by zomzipp View Post
There's news of Etisalat buying stake in RCOM.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...ow/6001211.cms

Where's this counter headed now?
As of now, Etisalat has denied any such development and so it is best to ignore this news item.

If the news is indeed true. the stock will go much higher from here as the deal price (as stated by Economic Times) is much higher than the current market price.
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