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Is it a good idea to invest in SAIL at 270.15. There are so many news in money control regarding this.. SAIL is going to invest 10000 CR in WB and it is reopening a closed Steel plant in WB.
Steel companies are facing pricing problems on both fronts - raw materials and finished goods.
On one hand, there is constant pressure from the government to keep prices down.
On the other hand, the prices of raw materials like coke, iron ore are going through the roof.
Yesterday, Arch Coal, a major coal mining company, stated that it expects coking coal prices will much higher this year.
Quote:
Last night coal miner Arch Coal provided its guidance - an announcement hotly anticipated given recent indicators that the global price of coal will not double, as previously thought, but triple to US$300/t.
i hav beem watching this script from 40 rs. I think it is too late for you to get out from this stock @ current price.so you should wait for some time more to average it when it comes in the range of say......143 to 138 .
in my sence one more correction wave is waiting sidelines so please be patience
TO SAY TECHNICALLY IT MAY RISE ONCE IN VREY SHORT TERM
And Finally Think Your Self And Do Some Homework Bcoz Its Your Money
If you follow steel stocks, firstly you should keep an eye on Steel Index
This gives you idea about demand of steel and in turn prices of steel.
Steel industry have very high break even point and they make profits based upon sales! With soft prices of steel, They will make losses. With huge piled up inventory, losses will amount further!
Coming back to SAIL!....It has excess inventory and then top of it I read it is putting up a new Plant and will take it's Debt/Equity to 100% which is bad!
- The first red up Trendline was broken in Jan 2008! since then we started downtrend!
- Second Blue line is where it should look for support around 50. We will meet it sooner or later!
- If this trendline is broken then SAIL can go to 16 or 20 Rs. So watch for this trendline!
- ADX is going down at 33 which means a trading range will form near 50!
- we have almost finished 78% correction from 2001 till 2008!
Last edited by man4urheart : 23rd November 2008 at 03:15 PM.
May be this year and next, steel is expected to make losses or turn out a small profit.
But it is a long term player in the Steel Industry (the largest player in the Indian Steel industry)
I heard SAIL has put a hold on capacity addition to 24 mt (which was slated to come online by 2010, actually SAIL wanted it later but bureaucrats preponed that to 2010 and now again held)
Does any body have facts on the following
1. What is the gestation period for Steel Capacity addition. Specifically now when is the capacity addition of steel for SAIL to 24 mt likely to complete - new date?
2. How much %age of the production of steel is exported by SAIL. PM has said we will still grow at 8%, at least the intention is that govt will do all possible to keep the GDP growing, however he can't direct the economy.
One way to look at is - What hit is SAIL taking from export.
Other way is if SAIL is a cheap producer compared to world steel producers, it can export steel and keep its margin and volumes, Indian govt willing ( or at least a balance can be struck between profitable growth and role as a PSU)
3. Will SAIL still make a profit at a price of 31000 per tonne of steel. As per one report I saw, at 35000-36000 per tonne, it reported an OPM of 25%. So at 31,000-32000 per tonne, all other things remaining same, it might still make a small profit.????
Long term I still feel, even if it returns to its last year performance, it is a good buy and even better if it goes down.
How to play SAIL now?
I wanted to exit completely at 250 before but looking at the recent rally Metals are leading and I have this one only in my PF. Don't want to miss the rally too My avg price is at 240.
Exit this and buy Tata steel or continue to hold on to this with the trailing stop-loss. How much % to be used as trailing stop-loss. Is it based on the previous day close or 50EMA/200EMA something like this? I never played like this before.
“No one wants to sell it cheap, neither the company nor the Government. We can wait for the right time... At current prices it is not possible,” he had said.
I checked for the basic information in moneycontrol and made a comparison with Tata steel.
Even after the price correction with regard to FPO still Tata steel looks cheaper than SAIL.
What is your view on this? Can we buy this at around Rs:145 level?
If I am not mistaken only sometime back just after 2009 FPO of Sail came at 140 per share price.
Then why such need to disinvest it first?
I guess government can disinvest those who haven't been done just like Dredging Corporation.
As far as I remember, there has been no public offer for SAIL in the last decade.
Dredging Corporation is a small company with a market value of just Rs 767 crore.
If the government wants to meet its disinvestment target, it has to sell shares of its bigger companies like ONGC, Coal India, NTPC, SBI, NMDC, BHEL, IOC, Power Grid, GAIL and SAIL.
As far as I remember, there has been no public offer for SAIL in the last decade.
Dredging Corporation is a small company with a market value of just Rs 767 crore.
If the government wants to meet its disinvestment target, it has to sell shares of its bigger companies like ONGC, Coal India, NTPC, SBI, NMDC, BHEL, IOC, Power Grid, GAIL and SAIL.
SAIL's FPO drama has been going on for around two years.
April 2010:
Quote:
Singh, however, exuded confidence that SAIL's FPO will be successful and the goverment is expected to raise about Rs 17,000 crore in both the tranches and it will be completed in this financial year.
"We don't want to crowd the market with too many public issues. There is Coal India, Hindustan Copper, Power Grid," Steel Secretary Atul Chaturvedi said adding "We want SAIL FPO to now come in say the second fortnight of January".
However, when asked whether there could be any delay in launching the FPO due to the issue, Verma said, “We have said it will be middle of February and we maintain the same time line”.
The much awaited Rs 8,000 crore follow-on public offer of state-run SAIL is likely to hit the capital markets by around June 14, while the steelmaker would file the prospectus for the issue by the end of this month.
"Red Herring Prospectus (RHP) is expected to be filed by the end of this month, while the FPO would hit the market around June 14. However, the exact dates will be finalised by the board in its meeting on May 23," SAIL Spokesperson R K Singhal said.
Sudden rise in the coking coal prices has put pressure on margins of the steel manufacturers, sources said, adding, this is main reason for the deferment of the Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL) FPO.
Q: For the moment has the SAIL follow on public offer (FPO) been deferred and the government will intimate you when it thinks market conditions favour?
A: No. it has not been deferred, it has been put on hold. We are waiting for the appropriate market conditions as to when to bring about this issue.
Steel Authority of India (SAIL) and Hindustan Copper have independently shelved plans to raise capital by fresh issue of equity shares in a follow-on public offer (FPO).
Although the fresh equity issuances by these two companies have been dropped, the proposed divestment transactions are very much on the table and could fructify during this fiscal if the market conditions improved, a top disinvestment department official has said.
'The government is exploring routes other than follow on public offer ( FPO) for stake sale in SAIL. It will happen only in the January-March quarter,' a senior official said, adding that it could be through the buyback route though it has not been finalised.
thanks all for their advice ...
so few things are pretty clear
Gov has no option than to raise more money via disinvestment
SAIL is one of their milking cow, so they would like to dilute their stake via FPO even though they could not do so in last two years due to poor market conditions.
but I assume this disinvestment is inevitable and would take place either tomorrow or later.
can anyone advise this further dilution (when even it happens in future) would impact the existing shareholders or not? if yes how?
Steel Authority of India Limited (SAIL)
. Now It's trading at 160 Levels... It's Nearly 100 Rupees down from my buy price....
My avg price is at 240.
SAIL disinvestment Good or Bad for company(stock)
So what is final call?
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