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  #1  
Old 1st February 2011, 11:51 PM
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Hi all,

I will update my portfolio as and when some changes happen. The updates here will be for the purpose of tracking the overall return and errors.

I trade mostly in Options and some short term trading in equity. Rest of the time, I use bonds and FDs to store the Money.

I will be using 100 as my index to represent my portfolio.

December, 2010
============
Closed the index option sold and liquidated all holding.

1st Feb, 2011
========
Till now all money in liquid form and in short term FDs.

Net = 100
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  #2  
Old 27th March 2011, 12:39 PM
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I have built up a portfolio starting from 1st March, 2011. ( Duration : Short to med. term ). Style : Diversified (NSE 50 index to compare with)

SCRIP SYMBOL %age of Portfolio NOTIONAL PNL PCT

TATAMOTORS 7.56% 3.57%
PSB 4.33% -3.32%
PNB 2.74% 3.44%
BANKBARODA 11.75% 4.37%
SBIN 17.78% 0.77%
ICICIBANK 5.91% 6.79%
TITAN 5.63% 3.19%
BEML 5.93% 6.99%
CMC 3.36% -0.27%
BPCL 4.69% 4.41%
NTPC 7.39% 2.24%
SIMPLEXINF 8.27% 0.31%
DLF 10.05% 12.61%
HDIL 4.61% 3.52%

Net return : 3.68%
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  #3  
Old 30th March 2011, 11:19 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nitinku5021a View Post
I have built up a portfolio starting from 1st March, 2011. ( Duration : Short to med. term ). Style : Diversified (NSE 50 index to compare with)

SCRIP SYMBOL %age of Portfolio NOTIONAL PNL PCT

TATAMOTORS 7.56% 3.57%
PSB 4.33% -3.32%
PNB 2.74% 3.44%
BANKBARODA 11.75% 4.37%
SBIN 17.78% 0.77%
ICICIBANK 5.91% 6.79%
TITAN 5.63% 3.19%
BEML 5.93% 6.99%
CMC 3.36% -0.27%
BPCL 4.69% 4.41%
NTPC 7.39% 2.24%
SIMPLEXINF 8.27% 0.31%
DLF 10.05% 12.61%
HDIL 4.61% 3.52%

Net return : 3.68%
All flat. With 6.28% gain (after brokerage).

Net position = 0.
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  #4  
Old 1st April 2011, 02:58 PM
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After long time, did intraday future trading. Out with loss of 900/- without brokerage.

Lesson of the day: don't speculate.
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  #5  
Old 11th May 2011, 11:38 AM
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Started buying again. Target scrips : DLF, SBI, ICICI, HDIL for now.
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  #6  
Old 21st June 2011, 10:11 AM
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Added more Muthoot Finance. @ 154.40. I am holding it since IPO with staggered buying @ lower levels.
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  #7  
Old 3rd August 2011, 11:20 AM
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Added more NTPC, SBIN, BHARTIARTL, PFC.
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  #8  
Old 3rd August 2011, 11:27 AM
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Current Portfolio:

ICICIBANK 2.08%
PSB 7.75%
SBIN 19.16%
BANKBARODA 3.35%
TITAN 5.29%
PFC 19.04%
MUTHOOTFIN 13.98%
NTPC 8.48%
RECLTD 2.74%
DLF 7.79%
HDIL 2.32%
RENUKA 4.49%
BHARTIARTL 3.53%

Net profit / Loss = -1.23% loss
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  #9  
Old 3rd August 2011, 11:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nitinku5021a View Post
Current Portfolio:

ICICIBANK 2.08%
PSB 7.75%
SBIN 19.16%
BANKBARODA 3.35%
TITAN 5.29%
PFC 19.04%
MUTHOOTFIN 13.98%
NTPC 8.48%
RECLTD 2.74%
DLF 7.79%
HDIL 2.32%
RENUKA 4.49%
BHARTIARTL 3.53%

Net profit / Loss = -1.23% loss
Just a Quick Query. I see you have shown percentage of your share in your portfolio.

Does money control provides the %age holding of shares of portfolio or you use any other source for this?

Regards
Reks
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  #10  
Old 3rd August 2011, 01:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by reks View Post
Just a Quick Query. I see you have shown percentage of your share in your portfolio.

Does money control provides the %age holding of shares of portfolio or you use any other source for this?

Regards
Reks
I use MS Excel. Hope that helps.
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  #11  
Old 3rd August 2011, 05:05 PM
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Having more than 60% exposure in the BFSI Sector is a high risk strategy. Include some consumer names like Hawkins, Page, Zydus for diversification.

The best bet in banks is HDFC Bank for large cap and Yes Bank for mid cap. REC looks good although one need to check the results on 10th Aug to monitor the NPA levels from SEBs.
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  #12  
Old 3rd August 2011, 06:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prudent_Investor View Post
REC looks good although one need to check the results on 10th Aug to monitor the NPA levels from SEBs.
NPAs won't rise till the SEBs actually run out of cash and default on repayments.

Once the defaults start, only then REC will start providing for these NPAs.

It may take a few months or a few quarters before the NPAs actually begin to rise sharply.

The stock market has already started discounted future NPAs. Whether the market has over-discounted or under-discounted future NPAs, only time till tell.
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  #13  
Old 3rd August 2011, 06:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prudent_Investor View Post
Having more than 60% exposure in the BFSI Sector is a high risk strategy. Include some consumer names like Hawkins, Page, Zydus for diversification.

The best bet in banks is HDFC Bank for large cap and Yes Bank for mid cap. REC looks good although one need to check the results on 10th Aug to monitor the NPA levels from SEBs.
Yup, Thanks for the observation. almost 35% exposure to NBFC. Will reduce it to 20% in the coming days.

REC is not looking attractive bet to me. Bharti Airtel is on my list because of its future plan and Airtel Money concept.
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  #14  
Old 5th August 2011, 10:30 PM
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Added DLF (205.30) and NTPC (173.10).
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  #15  
Old 8th August 2011, 10:36 AM
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Added NFL (86.80), DLF (196), and HDIL (118.50).

Net portfolio down = 4.95%.
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  #16  
Old 10th August 2011, 01:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nitinku5021a View Post
Added NFL (86.80), DLF (196), and HDIL (118.50).

Net portfolio down = 4.95%.
Yesterday added HDIL (112.05) and RENUKA(57.4).

Net portfolio (Profit/loss) = -1.52%.
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  #17  
Old 11th August 2011, 07:26 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nitinku5021a View Post
Yesterday added HDIL (112.05) and RENUKA(57.4).

Net portfolio (Profit/loss) = -1.52%.
How do you calculate net profit loss position; I have made a profit of approximately 11,000 this year on an investment of 5.5 lakhs. last year during the boom I made good profits but ploughed it all back into buying shares and that is how I am at 5.5; presently my portfolio is down 20%. I am unable to calculate my overall profit or loss. Any suggestions?
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  #18  
Old 11th August 2011, 09:52 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kumar1214 View Post
How do you calculate net profit loss position; I have made a profit of approximately 11,000 this year on an investment of 5.5 lakhs. last year during the boom I made good profits but ploughed it all back into buying shares and that is how I am at 5.5; presently my portfolio is down 20%. I am unable to calculate my overall profit or loss. Any suggestions?
It gets reflected in the indiabulls portfolio tracker. apart from that, keeping excel with prices helps.
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  #19  
Old 18th August 2011, 02:27 PM
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Added IL&FS trans @ 175.1

Net porfolio loss = -10.42% Even though the index is relatively safe, the other stocks are getting butchered.

Last edited by nitinku5021a : 18th August 2011 at 02:47 PM.
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  #20  
Old 26th August 2011, 05:40 PM
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Portfolio touched new lows from the starting month of May, 2011.

Current loss = -15.30%

Major loser : Banking & NBFC and Real estate.

Strategy: Wait and add after further 10% fall.
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  #21  
Old 12th September 2011, 11:49 AM
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Added SBI @ 1885 and IFCI @ 35.85.

Net Portfolio Profit/loss = -10.32 %

Major loser Banking + PFC.
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  #22  
Old 13th September 2011, 11:46 AM
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Current status:

Net amount invested in equity : 66.04%
Net amount invested in FD : 30.39%
Net amount invested in NCD : 3.56%

PS* applied for Religare NCD.
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  #23  
Old 24th November 2011, 02:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nitinku5021a View Post
Current status:

Net amount invested in equity : 66.04%
Net amount invested in FD : 30.39%
Net amount invested in NCD : 3.56%

PS* applied for Religare NCD.
Worst Hit till date.

Net loss: 19.79%

HDIL, Renuka, SBI, ICICI and rest of all are bleeding heavily.

Rough figure:
Net equity exposure : 45%
Debt exposure: 45%
Liquid instrument : 10%

Increasing investment in Fixed income products. Not touching or increasing equity portfolio. I can hold that for long term.
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  #24  
Old 24th November 2011, 05:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nitinku5021a View Post
Increasing investment in Fixed income products. Not touching or increasing equity portfolio. I can hold that for long term.
This is a fundamental mistake.

Stick to one asset allocation at all time. Suppose it is Equity: Debt (incl. NCD) at 70:30.

So ideally during boom times, Equity : Debt would move up to 90:10 etc. Here you book some profits and move to debt to make it 70:30 again.

Now in bearish faces, you have Equity : Debt reduced to 45:55. This is the time to ramp up equity by withdrawing FDs, to make it 70:30 again.

What this essentially does is, you are forced to book profits at market tops and buy at market bottoms.

Decide on your asset allocation and select quality stocks for the long term.
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  #25  
Old 24th November 2011, 05:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prudent_Investor View Post
This is a fundamental mistake.

Stick to one asset allocation at all time. Suppose it is Equity: Debt (incl. NCD) at 70:30.

So ideally during boom times, Equity : Debt would move up to 90:10 etc. Here you book some profits and move to debt to make it 70:30 again.

Now in bearish faces, you have Equity : Debt reduced to 45:55. This is the time to ramp up equity by withdrawing FDs, to make it 70:30 again.

What this essentially does is, you are forced to book profits at market tops and buy at market bottoms.

Decide on your asset allocation and select quality stocks for the long term.
The problem with this is:

1) You eventually end up catching a falling knife. The price at which the quality stocks were trading when i bought were good enough, but in the bearish sentiment no price is fair price and they keep on falling.
My ultimate aim is to create a fixed income asset which will give me enough income to retire without any financial worry.

So till the fixed income basket is good enough to give the adequate return, I will keep on increasing it.

Your point is valid one but I am not following the rule of keeping certain %age in equity or debt.
Keeping the above intention in mind, I am increasing my Fixed income investment and ignoring my temptation to buy more stocks.
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  #26  
Old 17th February 2012, 10:38 AM
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Update:

Portfolio flat. Net gain : 12%

The Net duration: May, 2011 - Feb, 2012

Reason: I feel the market may not sustain here. Too fast and too much up. and I am content with 12% in 9 months.

Will build again slowly when the prices look attractive. Till then FD / Debt Instrument is the my fav. place.
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  #27  
Old 21st February 2012, 11:02 AM
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Okay, It was overdue. The portfolio which I built up and sold.


Last edited by nitinku5021a : 21st February 2012 at 11:15 AM.
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  #28  
Old 21st February 2012, 06:54 PM
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As Peter Lynch showed in "One Up..." it always makes sense to remain invested in the market.

There are a few periods of supernormal returns within a large time span.

If one misses those periods, then his returns over the large time span may be drastically lower.

It is a good strategy to get rid of weaker stocks (poor fundamentals) in this rally and conserve the cash to invest in quality stocks later.

But I see no merit in exiting from quality stocks on the premise of entering them lower, you may not get that chance at all.
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  #29  
Old 22nd February 2012, 10:58 AM
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Originally Posted by nitinku5021a View Post
The problem with this is:

1) You eventually end up catching a falling knife.
What's wrong with that? If you are going to try and catch a knife, does it make any difference whether it's falling down or going up?
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  #30  
Old 22nd February 2012, 02:01 PM
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Originally Posted by vinvest View Post
What's wrong with that? If you are going to try and catch a knife, does it make any difference whether it's falling down or going up?
There is no problem with any model. It all depends what suits you and works best for you, should be adopted and followed. It's not like I haven't tried all those suggested by 'Prudent' above. It's just that over the time, I feel more comfortable playing safe and having a target without aspiring for astronomical returns.
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Old 22nd February 2012, 04:49 PM
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Originally Posted by nitinku5021a View Post
There is no problem with any model. It all depends what suits you and works best for you, should be adopted and followed. It's not like I haven't tried all those suggested by 'Prudent' above. It's just that over the time, I feel more comfortable playing safe and having a target without aspiring for astronomical returns.
There is nothing wrong with playing safe and going with a tried and tested model that works for you.

However in the allure of safety are you missing out on something ? The fixed income portfolios might not be the most suitable avenues to generate inflation beating real returns. Fixed income returns has mostly been negative if we consider the inflation adjusted figures.

The purpose of equity is not to chase astronomical returns, but a steady compounding at 12 to 15% can generate humongous amount of wealth which would be most useful to meet future capital requirements ( large expenses/ retirement etc.)
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  #32  
Old 22nd February 2012, 07:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Prudent_Investor View Post
There is nothing wrong with playing safe and going with a tried and tested model that works for you.

However in the allure of safety are you missing out on something ? The fixed income portfolios might not be the most suitable avenues to generate inflation beating real returns. Fixed income returns has mostly been negative if we consider the inflation adjusted figures.

The purpose of equity is not to chase astronomical returns, but a steady compounding at 12 to 15% can generate humongous amount of wealth which would be most useful to meet future capital requirements ( large expenses/ retirement etc.)
Okay let me explain few lines to get across my points right, since you have quoted equity returns.

First thing first, the return should not be seen individually. It is always seen with the risk taken. So It all boils down to what is your risk vs. return.

Coming to my strategy, I play short to medium term with large cap or quality stocks with very modest target. And a large amount of portfolio value is involved. So I prefer to keep the risk as low as possible and in the worst case hope for beating just the risk free return by 3-4% margin. I am quite happy with that.
So does that mean, I am very conservative and play safe always. No, I do trade with Options with significant exposure but again my aim always be to minimize risk and maximize return. It is NOT only to maximize return.
Now your line that if we keep quality stocks for very long term, the proven track record says, we will get 12-15% yoy basis. True. But how much is really long term? 10 years? 20 years? The research shows its generally 30 years. In between if something kind of deep recession comes then your one generation will pass before anyone can see any significant return from the portfolio.
So what we are left with?
1) Invest for very long term and hope for the best that in the next 30 years nothing real bad (like 1929) happens and we get good return for our retirement?
2) Keep playing short to medium term without taking much risk and safely get out when you feel uncomfortable.
3) Do intraday or play with purely derivative segment without locking your capital for long time.

I choose the option 2 and 3 and totally ignore the option 1. Please note that the executing the options become harder as we go from 1 to 2 and 2 to 3. That means, you need atleast some method or skill in you to go for option 2 & 3. If you don't have any, then I feel you are totally gambling your hard earned money. There is a lot of information asymmetry exist in the market. Brokers have superior information than you (Level 2 data etc.), insiders have specific information which is played in the market. Always remember, we are just the small fish in the market and those big guys have the power to move the market in the direction they want. If you don't believe me, just observe the market tick by tick for 15 days without taking break and you will know what i am talking about.
Anyway back to point. So it all boils down to if you could time the market. Well its an impossible task and perfect timing is impossible. But if we get atleast 60% time right (that means if we play randomly, our chance of being right is 50%, with some method you can increase to more than 50% and with limiting your loss, you can turn the game in your favour), we will become real wealthy.
To quote few numbers from research paper:
Perfect foresight: Jan 1926- Dec 1996
1) $1 in T-bill -> $ 14
2) $1 in S&P 500 -> $1370 (Not bad !!!)
3) Perfect timing ability on a monthly basis (Swap between risk free and equity): $1 -> $2,303,981,824 (Yes it's > $ 2 billion !!!)

So what everyone is aiming for is, even a small chunk of that return will make you really rich over the time. I hope this helps to understand my position.
I am keeping the log in this thread to help me make more disciplined. Will post my actually return till date with my strategy once I download all the ledgers.
Let the discussion follow. I would like to learn if you have something quite different experience.

Last edited by nitinku5021a : 22nd February 2012 at 07:32 PM.
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  #33  
Old 22nd February 2012, 08:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nitinku5021a View Post

Coming to my strategy, I play short to medium term with large cap or quality stocks with very modest target. And a large amount of portfolio value is involved. So I prefer to keep the risk as low as possible and in the worst case hope for beating just the risk free return by 3-4% margin. I am quite happy with that.
Playing in equities for short-medium term with a large amount can yield huge profits (Oct 2008, Mar 2009) or can prove to be suicidal ( Jan 2008, Nov 2010). Although you are playing for a small markup over risk free rate, but the play itself has a lot of inherent risk inherent.

Quote:
Originally Posted by nitinku5021a View Post
Now your line that if we keep quality stocks for very long term, the proven track record says, we will get 12-15% yoy basis. True. But how much is really long term? 10 years? 20 years? The research shows its generally 30 years. In between if something kind of deep recession comes then your one generation will pass before anyone can see any significant return from the portfolio.
The Indian markets do not have a long term history like the US or elsewhere, but rolling returns for Sensex over any 5 year period is positive. If a sum of money steadily compounds for a span of 10-15 or 20 years, then it will be almost impossible that all gains are wiped off in one downturn. Kindly do the maths and let me know if you found on the contrary.


Quote:
Originally Posted by nitinku5021a View Post
So what we are left with?
1) Invest for very long term and hope for the best that in the next 30 years nothing real bad (like 1929) happens and we get good return for our retirement?
2) Keep playing short to medium term without taking much risk and safely get out when you feel uncomfortable.
3) Do intraday or play with purely derivative segment without locking your capital for long time.

I choose the option 2 and 3 and totally ignore the option 1. Please note that the executing the options become harder as we go from 1 to 2 and 2 to 3. That means, you need atleast some method or skill in you to go for option 2 & 3.

If you don't have any, then I feel you are totally gambling your hard earned money. There is a lot of information asymmetry exist in the market. Brokers have superior information than you (Level 2 data etc.), insiders have specific information which is played in the market. Always remember, we are just the small fish in the market and those big guys have the power to move the market in the direction they want. If you don't believe me, just observe the market tick by tick for 15 days without taking break and you will know what i am talking about.
It is nice to have some definitive strategy in play. However 2 and 3 (in particular) are not ways of long term wealth accumulation per se. As you familiar with the vagaries of F&O you must be knowing how risky it is. One wrong trade can wipe out all accumulated profits.

I completely agree with you about information asymmetry in Indian markets and some segments profiting from that, but ignoring 1 completely and relying on 2 and 3 do not appear to be a great idea. It will be nice if you can illustrate with an example how this works or has worked for you.

Quote:
Originally Posted by nitinku5021a View Post
Anyway back to point. So it all boils down to if you could time the market. Well its an impossible task and perfect timing is impossible. But if we get atleast 60% time right (that means if we play randomly, our chance of being right is 50%, with some method you can increase to more than 50% and with limiting your loss, you can turn the game in your favour), we will become real wealthy.
To quote few numbers from research paper:
Perfect foresight: Jan 1926- Dec 1996
1) $1 in T-bill -> $ 14
2) $1 in S&P 500 -> $1370 (Not bad !!!)
3) Perfect timing ability on a monthly basis (Swap between risk free and equity): $1 -> $2,303,981,824 (Yes it's > $ 2 billion !!!)

So what everyone is aiming for is, even a small chunk of that return will make you really rich over the time. I hope this helps to understand my position.
I am keeping the log in this thread to help me make more disciplined. Will post my actually return till date with my strategy once I download all the ledgers.
Let the discussion follow. I would like to learn if you have something quite different experience.
It is nice to assume that chance of getting it right is 50%, however with the information asymmetry and over dependance on hot money (FII) it is rather insanely difficult if not impossible to time the markets.

Overall it seems that leaving equities and moving to debt at certain points of time and doing the reverse may not be the prudent strategy. Sticking to a definitive asset allocation with dynamic re-balancing may prove more efficient in the long term.

However, different strategies may prove beneficial for individuals at time. The main challenge remains to repeat the performance over different time spans.

Let the discussion continue.

Last edited by Prudent_Investor : 22nd February 2012 at 08:21 PM.
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  #34  
Old 24th February 2012, 11:38 AM
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Originally Posted by nitinku5021a View Post
Hi all,

I will update my portfolio as and when some changes happen. The updates here will be for the purpose of tracking the overall return and errors.

I trade mostly in Options and some short term trading in equity. Rest of the time, I use bonds and FDs to store the Money.

I will be using 100 as my index to represent my portfolio.

December, 2010
============
Closed the index option sold and liquidated all holding.

1st Feb, 2011
========
Till now all money in liquid form and in short term FDs.

Net = 100
Net Position = 121.3

65% deployed in Risk free instrument (FD, Debt fund)
10% in MF
25% liquid cash.
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  #35  
Old 25th February 2012, 12:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Prudent_Investor View Post
The Indian markets do not have a long term history like the US or elsewhere, but rolling returns for Sensex over any 5 year period is positive.
Not true.

Just one example
1st Jan 1994 - 3437
1st Jan 1999 - 3065

It should not be difficult to find more examples.
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Old 26th February 2012, 06:07 AM
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Originally Posted by vinvest View Post
Not true.

Just one example
1st Jan 1994 - 3437
1st Jan 1999 - 3065

It should not be difficult to find more examples.
Study on rolling returns (pdf)

As it is evident from 5 years onwards the probability of negative returns goes down considerably. This is evident even with the short history of Sensex.

Moreover as the author rightly points out,

Quote:
Finally an investment through SYSTEMATIC INVESTMENT PLAN (SIP) would have reduced even the negative returns that appear.
A new study from HDFC Mutual Fund, report is here

One can check rolling returns over any 5 year period between 03 Apr 1979 to 13 Feb 2011 using this.
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  #37  
Old 26th February 2012, 08:44 AM
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Originally Posted by Prudent_Investor View Post
Study on rolling returns (pdf)

As it is evident from 5 years onwards the probability of negative returns goes down considerably. This is evident even with the short history of Sensex.
All I am disputing is your original statement 'rolling returns for Sensex over any 5 year period is positive' - that's not true. The rolling period is negative for the 5 year period I mention.

If you calculate the US S & P 500 from the peak of 2000, the 10 year rolling return will be negative.

And these are not isolated incidents - I am pretty sure, you will find more if you start checking the US stock market from the crash of 1929.
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  #38  
Old 26th February 2012, 09:26 AM
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This might be helpful:

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  #39  
Old 26th February 2012, 10:52 AM
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Originally Posted by vinvest View Post
Not true.

Just one example
1st Jan 1994 - 3437
1st Jan 1999 - 3065

It should not be difficult to find more examples.
Here's another one (Source: Yahoo - Sensex)
July 1 1997 - 4300
July 1 2002 - 3330

I suppose you should be able to find more prior to this period.
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  #40  
Old 15th April 2012, 12:31 PM
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Current Status:

100% in FD / Debt Instrument / MF/ Liquid savings.

0% in Direct Equity.
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