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  #1  
Old 25th April 2017, 11:02 AM
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Default Long Term Charts for Fundamental Analysis



I have come across this website which has long term charts of different indices for fundamental analysis.

The website has long term charts for PE Ratio, Price to Book Value, Dividend Yield etc.

Nifty PE, PB, Div Yield Ratio

Here are PE ratio charts for Nifty 50 and Nifty 500.




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  #2  
Old 25th April 2017, 01:31 PM
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I used Nifty 500 as it covers almost the entire market (NSE).

Quote:
The NIFTY 500 Index represents about 94% of the free float market capitalization of the stocks listed on NSE as on March 31, 2016.
https://www.nseindia.com/products/co.../nifty_500.htm

At current prices, Nifty 500's PE ratio is even higher than it was in 2007-2008.

One of my earlier posts on short-term "hot money" flooding the markets was lost as I had to restore an older version of site's database.

Please be cautious with mid-caps and small-caps. Many of them are rising just because of speculative buying and their valuations have reached absurd levels.

Overall, the market is expensive but still I don't think the valuations are high enough to give a blanket sell call.
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  #3  
Old 18th September 2017, 05:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post
I

Overall, the market is expensive but still I don't think the valuations are high enough to give a blanket sell call.
Nifty 500 has now an absurd PE of 30.6.

P/B is 3.41 and Dividend yield of 0.87.

The popular Nifty 50 has also shot off the roof

Date - 18-Sep-2017
PE = 26.42
B/V = 3.53
Div Y = 0.94

I don't have the courage to buy in this market, but at the same time I can't mutter strength to sell and sit on the sidelines.

It is crazy mad rush out there.
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  #4  
Old 20th September 2017, 07:43 AM
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Originally Posted by Atiker View Post
I don't have the courage to buy in this market, but at the same time I can't mutter strength to sell and sit on the sidelines.
Relax. You are doing the right thing.

Buying at these levels is too risky.

Hold your stocks if the respective companies are showing positive earnings growth.

There are serious problems in the economy and only consumption part is holding.

Eternal bulls are talking about "green shoots in the investment side of the economy", but they have been doing the same for a few years now.

Saw this interview on CNBC TV18 yesterday:

Quote:
Q: So, when you hear things like the Commerce Minister is now calling private investors to look at the possibility of getting private investment to move, to pick up, do you see any signs of that because as you pointed out, capacity utilisation?

A: I really do not see any major investment forthcoming because you can say 65 percent of those who invested heavily in the past are under financial restructuring with respect to banks to repay the loans and so on. And balance 30-40 percent, the cycle of investment is nearly over.
Restructuring of non-core businesses likely in next 30-months: AM Naik, L&T - Moneycontrol.com

The fact is that many companies already have excess capacities much beyond what they are producing and there is no real need for fresh investment. Demand growth is nowhere near what it used to be in 2002-2007 period and thus companies are in no hurry to invest.

SBI's recent report accepts that there is a serious problem in the economy:

Quote:
“While it is true that the economy has undergone too many structural breaks since November 2016, and that may have precipitated a transient slowdown, it will be unfair if we only call it transient. A slowdown in demand has only aggravated the situation,” it said hinting that the slowdown is for real. Private sector capital formation is also languishing as resolution of stressed assets is yet to happen. “This situation demands that the government steps in and uses the fiscal policy as a tool to rev up the economy,” SBI report said.
Economic slowdown not just technical, it's real.

The bigger problem is that now taxes are falling short of targets too.

Quote:
India could be forced to cut spending on key infrastructure such as railways and highways as lower-than-expected tax collections and sluggish growth have upset the government's budget calculations, two finance ministry officials said.
GST: India eyes spending cuts as glitches in new tax hit revenue

Demonetization and the messed up GST implementation has wreaked havoc on the unorganized and SME sector. There is a risk that the problems of the smaller businesses may spread to larger businesses in the form of demand destruction.

Stock market valuations are totally out of sync with the reality of the ground. US markets are rallying and everyone else is following.




Liquidity can take the markets even higher from here, but investors must now be very alert and keep stop-losses for their long trading positions.

Investments should be restricted to stocks where there are real earnings and real dividends, not just stories that "so and so will happen and that will lead to high earnings in future".
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  #5  
Old 20th September 2017, 06:27 PM
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sachinjee, thanks for the PE Chart, is P/B looking something better?

5.4 vs 3.5 2008 vs 2017

Also in tax filing site I read tax collections are up by 17.5% for the corresponding period.

Correct me if I am wrong.

disc: Fully invested with today's buy but scared and finger solid on sell button to press at any moment.
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Old 22nd September 2017, 08:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ramkasi View Post
Also in tax filing site I read tax collections are up by 17.5% for the corresponding period.
That is the direct tax figure.

GST is an indirect tax and that is where most of the problems are.

Quote:
Taxpayers claimed over Rs 65,000 crore as input tax credit for the first month, while the total tax collection for the month of July was at nearly Rs 95,000, leaving merely Rs 30,000 crore as revenue with the government.
High input tax credit claims hit GST revenues - The Financial Express

There is still a lot of confusion and it may take many months before the GST system stabilizes.
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  #7  
Old 18th October 2017, 11:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ramkasi View Post
5.4 vs 3.5 2008 vs 2017
Yes, PB ratios are much better and there is a strong reason for it - low capacity utilization and falling returns from assets.

Companies have created assets, but are not getting the desired returns from these assets.

More assets (book value) are needed to generate the same earnings and therefore PB ratios are lower than earlier peaks.

I found another website will good tools:

https://trendlyne.com/equity/PE/NIFT...arning-ratios/

Nifty 500 PE's has now left the 2007-2008 peak way behind.

The exuberance has also spread to the primary market and public offers at 40-50-60 PEs are all being gobbled by investors.

I don't know when and how the bull market will end.

The end will probably be brought by an event. Maybe Trump's tax reform attempts will fail. Maybe the two Koreas will go to war. Maybe inflation will force central banks to raise rates again.

Whatever be the precipitating factor, the end will be a nasty one.

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  #8  
Old 19th October 2017, 01:09 AM
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In Oct month itself, FIIs have sold around 8000 Cr, whereas DIIs have purchased 9000 Cr something! Could it be since there's no other investment option left, DII are getting good domestic demand, and maybe once real estate picks up, or interest rates increase - trend may change.
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  #9  
Old 19th October 2017, 09:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by purple_heyze View Post
In Oct month itself, FIIs have sold around 8000 Cr, whereas DIIs have purchased 9000 Cr something! Could it be since there's no other investment option left, DII are getting good domestic demand, and maybe once real estate picks up, or interest rates increase - trend may change.
As long "investors" keep making money, they will keep "investing" more.

Unless we see a very sharp correction and a good part of the notional gains evaporating, I don't expect DIIs to slow down.

Such a sharp correction can only come from an external shock.
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