Quote:
Originally Posted by Titan
sensex traded at PE of 21.66
which means the investors and traders are willing to pay 21 times the earnings, doesn't that suggest the markets are overvalued ,
what should be the ideal PE such that the prices are close to their valuations.i mean historically did we have a PE which matched the prices to its earnings fairly.
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there is never a right PE for any security or index.
for every investor, the right PE is a different number.
An Indian investor gets 8% from a fixed deposit.
To such an investor, a PE of 20 (for a zero-growth stable company) may appear a bit stretched.
An American investor gets 1% from a fixed deposit.
To this investor, a PE of 20 (for the same zero-growth stable company) may appear attractive.
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The PE that you are looking at is
historical PE.
Markets discount the future.
FY 2010 will be over on March 31st, and FY 2011 will start from April 1st 2010.
Investors are already discounting FY 2011 earnings estimates.
The eps expectations are around Rs 1150.
At 16900, the forward PE for Sensex is
14.7.
This is nowhere near the PE in January 2008, when Sensex had touched 21000.
At that time, analysts were expecting an eps of 1025 for FY 2009.
This meant at the peak of 21200, markets were trading at
20.7 times forward earnings.
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When a stock or market is trading at a high PE, there is little room for disappointment.
Had the
earnings growth momentum continued in FY 2009 and FY 2010, Sensex wouldn't have corrected much.
However, as the PE's were already high and earnings started to go down, the markets corrected sharply.