-It has risen to its 50% target.
- Price has taken support at its trendline marked with red color line.
- 20 day EMA = 41.2
- Also 50 Day EMA = 40.6 has crossover the 200 day EMA= 40.3, which implies this price rise is going to sustain at higher levels
Last edited by man4urheart : 18th May 2008 at 02:56 PM.
Thanks for the helpful chart.
This looks like one of the charts I've seen on forex trading windows.
Are there any forex trading firms that use INR as one of a pair? I thought it was illegal to trade INR yet.
I think it's not good sign for SENSEX, Many of you would have read that financial markets are linked. in fact , the link between Sensex and the Indian Rupee (Dollar-rupee) is worth noting.
However, a strong dollar-rupee rate is not a good sign for the stock markets as there is a negative correlation between the two.
I personally think that a break above Rs 43 may be triggered by a further down move in the Indian stock markets.
Well, other major factor affecting the currency is the Crude Oil Prices which is still boiling (that is another instance of an inter-market linkage).
So, equity market investors ...keep an eye on the Dollar-Rupee and Crude Oil prices.
- Rounded bottom in blue Arc, from where rally started!
- Also note 50 EMA red line in most bullish orientation, It will rise above 200 the Orange line!
Daily Chart
We did cross the resistance at 43 and now sit at next resistance 47! for target of 49 or above!
The earlier resistance 43 will act as support in case there is correction!
Can we cross the next resistance 47, we will see in coming days. MACD has made its new high and wildest swing.
Right now it is going stay near that price!
Also note, 50 EMA and 200 EMA is in one of the most bullish orientation!
Last edited by man4urheart : 19th September 2008 at 02:12 AM.
As the sensex approaches 9k, will the dollar approach 50? I know I'm asking for a prediction, but if you're planning to sell USD, what would be a safe bet? Sell or wait n watch?
- MACD and RSI Divergence!
- A topping pattern(Double Top) in formation!
- Might improve sentiment in Equity market!
- It should return to Dark Blue line during correction!
This also implies, that USD vs INR should also must have hit its peak or climax. So lets see the action from here!
Keep a watchful eye!
Last edited by man4urheart : 17th November 2008 at 06:01 PM.
The above post is very precious as none of us have such a long term data for Dollar. Knowing that dollar is still heading down inspite of short term up/down reactions can have a big impact on what you think about US markets and economy!
--------------------------------------------------------
Now coming back to chart I posted in above post no. 11
MACD as forecasted, made price correct to 200 EMA in below chart and support drawn didn't hold!
I also feel we might be making a H&S pattern(drew the neckline), but that is a guess and not confirmed. Let's wait for few weeks to clear up the structure!
Apologies: Last post was not clear enough and alchemist deleted same!
Last edited by man4urheart : 30th December 2008 at 06:30 PM.
We broke below the support and came up. But can we cross the resistance at 50 EMA. I think we would test and come back down! Lets see what market does than rather predict!
It would be good time to keep strict stop loss on your IT positions
Weekly action
We took support at Dec08 lows, all major EMA looking downwards. We should see new lows in coming weeks!
This is the long term downtrend in Dollar and we should soon reverse it!
You can see dollar is in downtrend since last 30 years. from the year I was born to today, I think in next 30 years we should reverse it and my rest life should see it going up!
The rally in 2008 -2009 was actually a rally in bear market!
I think we are near bottom. Especially on weekly charts it is forming a H&S pattern, but right shoulder is still in making
Last edited by man4urheart : 4th October 2009 at 07:40 PM.
One question, if dollar goes up what should we do? As you see we are soon to begin a major advance which willl be wave 3 the most powerful and if my calculation is correct we are looking 1 USD = 60Rs
Some deductions
- If dollar goes up, US market goes down.
- Crude goes down.
- Thus, Indian market follows the path for now.
- Gold goes down too.
Big Question would infosys go up? help me?
Alchemist advise how can we gain on this front? IS it good to go in IT companies again ? The dollar effect will be neutralized by bad shape of US companies ahead which means IT companies loosing projects and reduction in revenue?
Last edited by man4urheart : 27th October 2009 at 06:54 AM.
Alchemist advise how can we gain on this front? IS it good to go in IT companies again ? The dollar effect will be neutralized by bad shape of US companies ahead which means IT companies losing projects and reduction in revenue?
If INR goes to 60 against USD, it will be a total disaster for the Indian economy.
inflation would go through the roof.
other than the exporters, no one else will gain from such an exchange rate.
IT companies will surely benefit a lot.
gains due to weak INR would be far more than reduction in business from US/EU.
(personally, I don't think INR is going anywhere near 60).
personally, I don't think INR is going anywhere near 60.
Alchemist, In your opinion what is the short-term trend for USD-INR? I have some USDs in my US account that I plan to bring over when the rate again (hopefully!!) tends toward 50.
if the trend is toward 40 then I would bring it in ASAP.
Alchemist, In your opinion what is the short-term trend for USD-INR? I have some USDs in my US account that I plan to bring over when the rate again (hopefully!!) tends toward 50.
if the trend is toward 40 then I would bring it in ASAP.
Regards,
Sudhanshu
I am a USD bear and see a long-term decline.
USD has resistance at INR 46.75 and then near 47.8.
USD is oversold and may go to 48 in the short-term.
IS it good to go in IT companies again ? The dollar effect will be neutralized by bad shape of US companies ahead which means IT companies losing projects and reduction in revenue?
Dollar going up will help the Indian IT industry. USD at 60Rs will be "Amrit"; Even loss making fixed-price contract will suddenly turn profitable!!
If USD is going to Rs60, I will blind buy top 3 IT stock (TCS/INfy/Wipro)
...
Thus if we are bullish on USD index. We are looking for 50 on USD to INR in coming weeks.
Rupee going from 45 odd to 50 is a rise of 11%. Since this also means a corresponding fall in the stock market, lets look forward for a nice correction.
USD-INR Chart
USD - INR chart
Linear Mode
