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  #1  
Old 18th May 2008, 02:51 PM
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Default USD-INR Chart





Latest chart of USD-INR.

-It has risen to its 50% target.
- Price has taken support at its trendline marked with red color line.
- 20 day EMA = 41.2
- Also 50 Day EMA = 40.6 has crossover the 200 day EMA= 40.3, which implies this price rise is going to sustain at higher levels

Last edited by man4urheart : 18th May 2008 at 02:56 PM.
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  #2  
Old 19th June 2008, 08:54 AM
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Thanks for the helpful chart.
This looks like one of the charts I've seen on forex trading windows.
Are there any forex trading firms that use INR as one of a pair? I thought it was illegal to trade INR yet.
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  #3  
Old 27th August 2008, 11:47 PM
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Time to revisit the chart

USD-INR Chart

Daily Chart



200 Days View



As shown earlier support is acting as resistance. Can we cross it? Time to watch!

There is also MACD divergence, a little correction! Trendline holds we will watch!

Last edited by man4urheart : 27th August 2008 at 11:52 PM.
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  #4  
Old 28th August 2008, 07:01 PM
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I think it's not good sign for SENSEX, Many of you would have read that financial markets are linked. in fact , the link between Sensex and the Indian Rupee (Dollar-rupee) is worth noting.

However, a strong dollar-rupee rate is not a good sign for the stock markets as there is a negative correlation between the two.

I personally think that a break above Rs 43 may be triggered by a further down move in the Indian stock markets.

Well, other major factor affecting the currency is the Crude Oil Prices which is still boiling (that is another instance of an inter-market linkage).

So, equity market investors ...keep an eye on the Dollar-Rupee and Crude Oil prices.

Cheers!
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  #5  
Old 19th September 2008, 02:06 AM
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Weekly Chart



- Rounded bottom in blue Arc, from where rally started!
- Also note 50 EMA red line in most bullish orientation, It will rise above 200 the Orange line!

Daily Chart



We did cross the resistance at 43 and now sit at next resistance 47! for target of 49 or above!

The earlier resistance 43 will act as support in case there is correction!

Can we cross the next resistance 47, we will see in coming days. MACD has made its new high and wildest swing.

Right now it is going stay near that price!

Also note, 50 EMA and 200 EMA is in one of the most bullish orientation!

Last edited by man4urheart : 19th September 2008 at 02:12 AM.
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  #6  
Old 10th October 2008, 03:45 PM
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Quote:
We did cross the resistance at 43 and now sit at next resistance 47! for target of 49 or above!
We achieved the target today! What's next I will look at charts in evening!

I was looking at TCS hedge positions, if my calculations are right they would be betting dollar at 38.2 for this quarter and it has gone till 49!

Taking average rate of 47 for this quarter, I expect MTM losses for hedge as 36,74,38,910 OR 36 Crores!

Last quarter it was 10 Crores approx!

Last edited by man4urheart : 10th October 2008 at 03:49 PM.
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  #7  
Old 12th October 2008, 11:03 AM
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Question USD - INR chart

Hello!

As the sensex approaches 9k, will the dollar approach 50? I know I'm asking for a prediction, but if you're planning to sell USD, what would be a safe bet? Sell or wait n watch?

Cheers
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  #8  
Old 27th October 2008, 03:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by man4urheart View Post
We achieved the target today! What's next I will look at charts in evening!

I was looking at TCS hedge positions, if my calculations are right they would be betting dollar at 38.2 for this quarter and it has gone till 49!

Taking average rate of 47 for this quarter, I expect MTM losses for hedge as 36,74,38,910 OR 36 Crores!

Last quarter it was 10 Crores approx!
My rough calculation was not good.....

They were hedging at 44 as per CEO statement!

But they did make significant lossses as dollar is at 50 now!

Did you notice we also crossed 49 $ resistance!
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  #9  
Old 17th November 2008, 06:57 PM
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USD Reaching it's climax!



- MACD and RSI Divergence!
- A topping pattern(Double Top) in formation!
- Might improve sentiment in Equity market!
- It should return to Dark Blue line during correction!

This also implies, that USD vs INR should also must have hit its peak or climax. So lets see the action from here!

Keep a watchful eye!

Last edited by man4urheart : 17th November 2008 at 07:01 PM.
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  #10  
Old 20th November 2008, 08:22 PM
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what is your opinion now since USD crossed 50 rupees yesterday!!!
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  #11  
Old 4th December 2008, 04:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rishig View Post
what is your opinion now since USD crossed 50 rupees yesterday!!!
As projected by charts, we didn't cross the resistance and there is further buildup in MACD and RSI, negative divergence!

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  #12  
Old 30th December 2008, 07:25 PM
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Firstly following post from my friend Corey! has a very long term Dollar chart...It is Interesting to understand the big picture of Dollar!

I am giving a link for same to his page!

http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/long-t...-dollar-index/

The above post is very precious as none of us have such a long term data for Dollar. Knowing that dollar is still heading down inspite of short term up/down reactions can have a big impact on what you think about US markets and economy!

--------------------------------------------------------
Now coming back to chart I posted in above post no. 11

MACD as forecasted, made price correct to 200 EMA in below chart and support drawn didn't hold!



I also feel we might be making a H&S pattern(drew the neckline), but that is a guess and not confirmed. Let's wait for few weeks to clear up the structure!

Apologies: Last post was not clear enough and alchemist deleted same!

Last edited by man4urheart : 30th December 2008 at 07:30 PM.
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  #13  
Old 22nd January 2009, 07:37 PM
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Correction: Above is not a H&S pattern, because this is not a extended uptrend and thus have proved unreliable!

My mistake~
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  #14  
Old 2nd May 2009, 06:23 PM
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Default trend in the next three months

What is likely to be the trend in the INR in the next three months?
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  #15  
Old 9th August 2009, 09:29 PM
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Action on daily chart



We broke below the support and came up. But can we cross the resistance at 50 EMA. I think we would test and come back down! Lets see what market does than rather predict!

It would be good time to keep strict stop loss on your IT positions


Weekly action




We took support at Dec08 lows, all major EMA looking downwards. We should see new lows in coming weeks!
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  #16  
Old 23rd August 2009, 09:13 AM
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A interesting find on weekly chart!

We are having a strong support area. Is it possible that we are in 2 wave of a bull run?

If that is case we should start the 3 rd wave up for new highs!
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  #17  
Old 25th September 2009, 08:16 AM
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Triangle in making and Wave B to finish or go beyond?

Watch out for breakout on either side!
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  #18  
Old 4th October 2009, 07:24 PM
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This is the long term downtrend in Dollar and we should soon reverse it!

You can see dollar is in downtrend since last 30 years. from the year I was born to today, I think in next 30 years we should reverse it and my rest life should see it going up!

The rally in 2008 -2009 was actually a rally in bear market!

I think we are near bottom. Especially on weekly charts it is forming a H&S pattern, but right shoulder is still in making


Last edited by man4urheart : 4th October 2009 at 07:40 PM.
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  #19  
Old 6th October 2009, 04:24 PM
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Falling from triangle!

But this is last leg in big picture and I am bullish on Dollar as per wave counts!

Target is 43.966 which is 61.8% of rise!
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  #20  
Old 6th October 2009, 04:36 PM
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Man4 ji,

Can you clarify on your view? USD is currently around 48. If you are bullish on dollar then its value should increase > 48.

How come the target is between 43-44?

Regards,
Sudhanshu
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  #21  
Old 6th October 2009, 04:42 PM
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What I mean this is just a correction in larger big up trend, thats why target is 61.8% of earlier up move from 39 to 52.

If you look in post 17, we have the count done.

Quote:
Triangle in making and Wave B to finish or go beyond?

Watch out for breakout on either side!
we did finish the wave count B and now in wave C, which is final wave down to 61.8%!

IF we trace back 100% to 39, I have to recount again!
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  #22  
Old 6th October 2009, 09:55 PM
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Question

Quote:
Originally Posted by man4urheart View Post
Target is 43.966 which is 61.8% of rise!
Do you have a time target for this?
thanks
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  #23  
Old 15th October 2009, 09:33 AM
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Today, USD has gone below 46.

The USD-INR doesn't look good and USD may be headed for 42-43.

Be careful with your export stocks.



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  #24  
Old 27th October 2009, 06:46 AM
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One question, if dollar goes up what should we do? As you see we are soon to begin a major advance which willl be wave 3 the most powerful and if my calculation is correct we are looking 1 USD = 60Rs

Some deductions

- If dollar goes up, US market goes down.
- Crude goes down.
- Thus, Indian market follows the path for now.
- Gold goes down too.

Big Question would infosys go up? help me?

Alchemist advise how can we gain on this front? IS it good to go in IT companies again ? The dollar effect will be neutralized by bad shape of US companies ahead which means IT companies loosing projects and reduction in revenue?

Last edited by man4urheart : 27th October 2009 at 06:54 AM.
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  #25  
Old 27th October 2009, 10:45 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by man4urheart View Post
Alchemist advise how can we gain on this front? IS it good to go in IT companies again ? The dollar effect will be neutralized by bad shape of US companies ahead which means IT companies losing projects and reduction in revenue?
If INR goes to 60 against USD, it will be a total disaster for the Indian economy.

inflation would go through the roof.

other than the exporters, no one else will gain from such an exchange rate.

IT companies will surely benefit a lot.

gains due to weak INR would be far more than reduction in business from US/EU.

(personally, I don't think INR is going anywhere near 60).
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  #26  
Old 27th October 2009, 03:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alchemist View Post

personally, I don't think INR is going anywhere near 60.
Alchemist, In your opinion what is the short-term trend for USD-INR? I have some USDs in my US account that I plan to bring over when the rate again (hopefully!!) tends toward 50.

if the trend is toward 40 then I would bring it in ASAP.

Regards,
Sudhanshu
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  #27  
Old 27th October 2009, 10:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sudhashbahu View Post
Alchemist, In your opinion what is the short-term trend for USD-INR? I have some USDs in my US account that I plan to bring over when the rate again (hopefully!!) tends toward 50.

if the trend is toward 40 then I would bring it in ASAP.

Regards,
Sudhanshu
I am a USD bear and see a long-term decline.

USD has resistance at INR 46.75 and then near 47.8.

USD is oversold and may go to 48 in the short-term.
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  #28  
Old 28th October 2009, 08:23 AM
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Man sir... check out this... any thoughts???

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=atlyygQuBLUI
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  #29  
Old 21st December 2009, 12:24 PM
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Man4-ji,

What is your guess for the USD-INR rate in the next 3 months?
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Old 21st December 2009, 12:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by man4urheart View Post
IS it good to go in IT companies again ? The dollar effect will be neutralized by bad shape of US companies ahead which means IT companies losing projects and reduction in revenue?
Dollar going up will help the Indian IT industry. USD at 60Rs will be "Amrit"; Even loss making fixed-price contract will suddenly turn profitable!!

If USD is going to Rs60, I will blind buy top 3 IT stock (TCS/INfy/Wipro)
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  #31  
Old 22nd December 2009, 07:57 AM
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I am bullish on Dollar!

It is in powerful 3 rd wave......my count is correct!...I am looking for a target around 60 Rs on dollar...within 1 year!

Last edited by man4urheart : 22nd December 2009 at 08:07 AM.
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  #32  
Old 22nd December 2009, 08:49 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by man4urheart View Post
I am bullish on Dollar!

It is in powerful 3 rd wave......my count is correct!...I am looking for a target around 60 Rs on dollar...within 1 year!
can you please post the chart.
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  #33  
Old 22nd December 2009, 11:01 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by man4urheart View Post
I am bullish on Dollar!

It is in powerful 3 rd wave......my count is correct!...I am looking for a target around 60 Rs on dollar...within 1 year!
Man4-ji,

what is this mysterious "3rd Wave", you mentioned it earlier in your post on "Goldstone Technologies" too and now this thread.

Please throw some light. (probably using a thread in the "Technical analysis" section)

You always seem to be coming up with new terms. Some months ago you had "Point and Figure" charts

Who knows, in a few years we will be reading Man4's weekly analysis on ICICIDIrect instead of Vivek Patil
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  #34  
Old 23rd December 2009, 05:37 AM
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Showing the 3rd wave
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  #35  
Old 6th January 2010, 09:23 AM
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Well USD looks to be consolidating for a big move from a triangle



If gold is going up this would be down! this would be short term and should not break 39 on Dollar, otherwise i have to recount!

43 would be a ideal target for down break side, but lets wait and see the move!

Last edited by man4urheart : 6th January 2010 at 09:26 AM.
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  #36  
Old 19th January 2010, 08:52 AM
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http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/bull-f...ar-january-18/

A interesting post on dollar, which means gold+ crude+stocks down.
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  #37  
Old 19th January 2010, 11:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by man4urheart View Post
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/bull-f...ar-january-18/

A interesting post on dollar, which means gold+ crude+stocks down.
How to co-relate USD index to USD-INR?
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  #38  
Old 19th January 2010, 05:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ashish_jain11 View Post
How to co-relate USD index to USD-INR?


Example: When USD index fell in last couple of weeks from 78.5 to 77, so did USD to INR conversion rate fell from 46 to 44.5.

Thus if we are bullish on USD index. We are looking for 50 on USD to INR in coming weeks.
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Old 19th January 2010, 06:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by man4urheart View Post
...
Thus if we are bullish on USD index. We are looking for 50 on USD to INR in coming weeks.
Rupee going from 45 odd to 50 is a rise of 11%. Since this also means a corresponding fall in the stock market, lets look forward for a nice correction.
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  #40  
Old 21st January 2010, 03:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by man4urheart View Post
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/bull-f...ar-january-18/

A interesting post on dollar, which means gold+ crude+stocks down.
Right on cue...
- Dollar is up
- Gold is down
- Rupee is down
- Sensex is down

Keep us posted with your Technical analysis on the Dollar front Mandeepji.
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